Pre game Premonitions: AFL 2021 Rd 14: Carlton vs GWS

[cookie2]

Looking at that second graph, it's a massive credit to Weitering and Jones that, despite having the greatest number of 1v1's of the players graphed (each has about 6 1v1's per game), they have the highest win rate of those contests. Massive tick for both.

That took my eye too.

[Shakin77]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-17/w.../100218856

I don't know whether this has been posted before but this article may explain why we have been struggling and will continue to do so unless things change.

Those boys do some very good work.

It was also mentioned by Jennings on SEN how we leak red time scores.  Seems our fitness is still a massive issue and many of our players are jogging late in quarters and games and our midfield doesn't get back to defend.

Make some of our match committee selections more puzzling.    Going too tall and rushing back under done players who can't run out games.

[ElwoodBlues1]

Richmond have always seemed to get numbers to the ball down back and their 1 vs 1's turn in to 1v 2's etc.....ideally you want team defense rather than one on ones IMO. Do we really want a player like Plowman left alone on those difficult matchup players.
Jones and Weitering are wallpapering plenty of cracks but those figures of how we play etc dont reflect well on Teague's tactics and Cripps cant be asking for big bucks based on some of those stats.

[Thryleon]

Richmond have always seemed to get numbers to the ball down back and their 1 vs 1's turn in to 1v 2's etc.....ideally you want team defense rather than one on ones IMO. Do we really want a player like Plowman left alone on those difficult matchup players.
Jones and Weitering are wallpapering plenty of cracks but those figures of how we play etc dont reflect well on Teague's tactics and Cripps cant be asking for big bucks based on some of those stats.

Im not sure if this is good planning, sucking the opposition in, or good team work.

I watch with interest.  Teams like Richmond are able to force teams to attack where they want the opposition to.

The creates more opportunity for the numbers to form.

i.e.  in the current game its go fast, go fast, go fast.

I think Richmond are able to manufacture the outnumber, by giving teams a certain spot to kick to.  If they use that spot it actually looks like a dangerous play, but it limits the next kick to a weak chance of working.

This controls your opposition movement by design, and gives your backs and mids the best setup possible.

Sports has and always will be about territory.  I can see frequently now, that teams that focus on unrelenting pressure get scored against by forward half turnovers.  What this means, is that teams are welcoming the pressure, and focussing on creating outlets that deliberately expose the opposition to counter punch attacking.  Geelong lead the stat of scores from defensive turnover this season for that reason.

It relies on a few factors.  Line breaking ability (hence our attacking defenders rather than defensive defenders) good ball use, composure, and smarts.

We dont have an abundance of those so I am actually a fan of the way Teague sets us up. 

[DJC]

Assuming that article has it right, the problem lies somewhere on the line connecting coaching instructions / structures and players adjusting / playing to those instructions. 

If you look at the first graph, Teague has made adjustments from 2020 to 2021, as the number of 1v1's has come down, but only barely. That slight reduction doesn't seem to make any real difference if you compare W/L, percentage etc., so it's either a token measure that doesn't go far enough, or else there are real personnel / structural issues that require a genuine overhaul of our entire defensive system and mindset.

I think it's the latter Paul.

Every time I watch our games on TV, the expert comments blokes have a picnic on our poor defensive set ups, players ball-watching, poor positioning (or players badly out of position), not recognising opposition players' strengths (ie allowing left footers to get on their left), ad nauseum.  Bolts had a more defensive gameplan but those same problems were still evident.

It's my belief that our players have never learned how to play AFL team defence and, consequently, we rely on individual efforts and winning one on one contests.  Imagine how good Weiters would be if he was in Richmond's backline with five blokes who know how to play team defence.

I'm not sure that it's something that coaches can fix, although they should be able to address the basics.  I can't help but think that our defence would more effective if we had beaten Brisbane to Luke Hodge.  Daisy may have played a similar role, but not with the same impact and effectiveness.

Anyway, I hope Teague reads the article and takes some action to fix the problems.

[Baggers]

Strange media conference from The TT today. Seemed very stilted with scripted responses. Really talked up how many things we're doing right!!! Dangerous to draw conclusions from this -- jumping at shadows -- but it really did seem to be a senior coach seriously under the pump (understandable).

[PaulP]

I think it's the latter Paul.

Every time I watch our games on TV, the expert comments blokes have a picnic on our poor defensive set ups, players ball-watching, poor positioning (or players badly out of position), not recognising opposition players' strengths (ie allowing left footers to get on their left), ad nauseum.  Bolts had a more defensive gameplan but those same problems were still evident.

It's my belief that our players have never learned how to play AFL team defence and, consequently, we rely on individual efforts and winning one on one contests.  Imagine how good Weiters would be if he was in Richmond's backline with five blokes who know how to play team defence.

I'm not sure that it's something that coaches can fix, although they should be able to address the basics.  I can't help but think that our defence would more effective if we had beaten Brisbane to Luke Hodge.  Daisy may have played a similar role, but not with the same impact and effectiveness.

Anyway, I hope Teague reads the article and takes some action to fix the problems.

Our defence in 2016 and 2017 was pretty reasonable. Once Teague came on board in 2018, the focus shifted and the coherence from those 2 years just evaporated. I'm not sure what's up, and I have no interest in starting yet another slanging match, but his coaching history with us clearly shows a struggle / lack of interest in modern, sophisticated defensive setups. We are lucky that neither Weitering nor Jones have been out long term, because we would be stuffed. Teague's reliance on these two is excessive IMO.

[Gointocarlton]

Our defence in 2016 and 2017 was pretty reasonable. Once Teague came on board in 2018, the focus shifted and the coherence from those 2 years just evaporated. I'm not sure what's up, and I have no interest in starting yet another slanging match, but his coaching history with us clearly shows a struggle / lack of interest in modern, sophisticated defensive setups. We are lucky that neither Weitering nor Jones have been out long term, because we would be stuffed. Teague's reliance on these two is excessive IMO.

Agree and Ill just add that for what ever reason, our defence looked (to me least) more solid last year. Dont know if the stats say that or not, its my recollection of the games I watched.

[PaulP]

Agree and Ill just add that for what ever reason, our defence looked (to me least) more solid last year. Dont know if the stats say that or not, its my recollection of the games I watched.

If we compare the %, points for, and points against for the whole of 2020 with the first 12 rounds this season, they are eerily similar.
2020 : 94.3%, 1017 PF, 1078 PA
2021 R12 : 92.4%, 1016 PF, 1099 PA

[Baggers]

Our defence in 2016 and 2017 was pretty reasonable. Once Teague came on board in 2018, the focus shifted and the coherence from those 2 years just evaporated. I'm not sure what's up, and I have no interest in starting yet another slanging match, but his coaching history with us clearly shows a struggle / lack of interest in modern, sophisticated defensive setups. We are lucky that neither Weitering nor Jones have been out long term, because we would be stuffed. Teague's reliance on these two is excessive IMO.

I don't think anyone could argue with your point, Pauly. It's exactly what has happened... we've gone from one extreme to the other. Perhaps The TT sold the coaching panel that he could deliver a more attacking style... not so dour, prettier, more of what the AFL wanted - better TV times meant better and more sponsors.

However, purely offensive sides get opened up easier and develop a softer, downhill skier mentality.

We have the talent to attack and attack well, but that should be after we've defended solidly and can, if things go wrong, resort to strong defensive structures.

It always worried me when The TT would comment, after being asked about our opponents, that he concentrates on our side only. There's an old saying, which is still true today (for gladiatorial sports & in war times)... 'first, know your opponent/enemy and expect their best'. And that suggests strong defensive strategies... then offense when you countered them/reduced their abilities.