AFL Rd 15 2024 Pre-game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

[DJC]

I heard Hoyne also on SEN, it was very interesting.
So, when we go down the line out of defence between the arcs , we only retain possession or half the contest 20% of the time.
Worst in the comp and worst for many years over the last 4 weeks.
Conversely, when we switch play from defence we are the most successful team in the comp at retaining possession.  However, we only switch the play 20% of the time.
So Hoyne posed the question do we bring in Pitto to fix the down the line problem but potentially weaken our transition game or do work on switching the play more out of defence.
I'm firmly in the camp of the 2nd option.

I like listening to Hoyne's analyses but looking at plays or play phases in isolation misses the big picture.  Kicks down the line seems to be a last resort for us and many of ours are dump kicks intended to clear the defensive 50 and enable us to set up behind the ball.  Short kicks, forward handballs and running the ball seems to be our preferred transition method and we do that very well.

Our long kicks down the line work best when Harry or Charlie provides the target.  De Koning has managed to clunk a few marks down the line in recent games but providing an outlet target down the line isn't a strong point.  Pittonet rarely takes a mark at all and the only way his addition to the 22 would improve our ability to win or draw down the line kicks is by allowing Harry or Charlie to play up the ground more often.

Our last four weeks includes the Sydney game where our systems broke down for much of the game.  That poor effort will skew our data to some extent.  The next three games were convincing wins against teams in reasonable form and, while there's always room for improvement, I wouldn't want to be changing much for the Geelong game.

[LP]

Pitto's go is playing a kick behind play as the zoning D50 ruck option, he is very clever in this role and positions himself well, which forces opposition clubs to go wide and that gains our team some time to setup. As [member=324]DJC[/member]‍ points out he is not a marking option down the line, and in any case he is often behind the footy not ahead of it.

TDK is a beginner and not reliable, but he'll get better, we need to persist with him forward of the footy so that combining with BigH and Charlie they can get the position / separation sorted out. Nothing pisses me off more than seeing the three of them flying for the same mark dragging their opponents to the footy.

TDK, BigH and Charlie are all very mobile for their size, they need space to take advantage of that not traffic, when they are dragged into traffic it's a win for the opposition.

[DJC]

Nothing pisses me off more than seeing the three of them flying for the same mark dragging their opponents to the footy.

I see that as an organised set play where one of the three is the designated marker and the other two are running interference.

If it's not Charlie, Harry and Tom in the contest, Owies, Durdin, Cotters, etc will be there setting blocks and disrupting the defenders.

[ElwoodBlues1]

Dont see the big deal with the ruck setup, TDK is playing the best footy of his career as the lone ruck and Harry has been ok as the fill in....why change that vs Geelong who have a rubbish ruckman in Stanley and/or a rookie kid in Conway.
If it was TDK vs Darcy and Jackson or Draper/Goldstein, Cox/Cameron etc then you would think about Pittonet but vs Geelong Id be sticking with TDK only after last games efforts...

[pew2]

regarding the long kick especially from FB is i think one of our weakness,i have watched over the years how the opposition just set up and ball just rebounds back. When was the last time we found a lose player outside 50 and spotted him up 

[DJC]

Dont see the big deal with the ruck setup, TDK is playing the best footy of his career as the lone ruck and Harry has been ok as the fill in....why change that vs Geelong who have a rubbish ruckman in Stanley and/or a rookie kid in Conway.
If it was TDK vs Darcy and Jackson or Draper/Goldstein, Cox/Cameron etc then you would think about Pittonet but vs Geelong Id be sticking with TDK only after last games efforts...

Stanley and Conway are way down in the ruck rankings but the Geelong ruck that concerns me most is Blicavs.  He'll probably be running with Cripps but his athleticism when he goes into the ruck will trouble our second stringers or De Koning in the unlikely event that Pittonet is back.  Blicavs might cause a minor headache or two but I don't think our MC will be losing sleep over him.

Just back to the down the line discussion; how often do Weitering, Kemp, McGovern and their mates intercept opposition kicks?  I reckon we'd be well ahead of most teams when it comes to intercepting kicks down the line.

Despite Hoyne's earnestness, it's not a huge problem.

[Adelaideblue]

regarding the long kick especially from FB is i think one of our weakness,i have watched over the years how the opposition just set up and ball just rebounds back. When was the last time we found a lose player outside 50 and spotted him up 

   

Yes agree!    We go from having 100% control of the ball, to a 50/50 contest.   

Not always the kickers fault, lack of our players leading into space also comes into play.

Ab

[DJC]

regarding the long kick especially from FB is i think one of our weakness,i have watched over the years how the opposition just set up and ball just rebounds back. When was the last time we found a lose player outside 50 and spotted him up

The last time was Kemp to Boyd in the last quarter against Essendon. Just before that it was Kemp to Fogarty and before that it was Saad to Boyd.  Earlier in the last quarter, Ollie Hollands wasn't loose but Saad kicked cleverly to his advantage.

We had 99 marks to Essendon's 84 and only 8 were contested so we're not too bad at spotting players up.

[ElwoodBlues1]

Stanley and Conway are way down in the ruck rankings but the Geelong ruck that concerns me most is Blicavs.  He'll probably be running with Cripps but his athleticism when he goes into the ruck will trouble our second stringers or De Koning in the unlikely event that Pittonet is back.  Blicavs might cause a minor headache or two but I don't think our MC will be losing sleep over him.

Just back to the down the line discussion; how often do Weitering, Kemp, McGovern and their mates intercept opposition kicks?  I reckon we'd be well ahead of most teams when it comes to intercepting kicks down the line.

Despite Hoyne's earnestness, it's not a huge problem.

Blicavs has been way out of form this season and as Kane Cornes has pointed out now has a bad habit of kicking on his non preferred left foot all the time with poor results making him ineffective and his ruckwork hasnt been great either, 3 hitouts last game.
We will probably get more opposition from the kid Conway and Hawkins rucking down forward than Stanley and Blicavs imho.
How Stanley has survived so long as 1st ruck at such a powerful club is one of footballs modern wonders....

[Thryleon]

I wouldn't mind going in roughly how we lined up last time we played Geelong.  Execution hurt us more than anything else.  We had plenty of opportunities and they played efficient footy.  Almost got them despite performing quite poorly for long periods of the day.  A little more outside run is all we need.