AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

[shawny]

Yes, of course it's balance, but the original point was, ours was all over the shop and we went away from that balance at the selection table.

We fielding a team unlike what had got us there and we lost our balance at the selection table because we were too focussed on the beating them.

We played a team who finished 2nd and played them on a deck they haven't lost on all year. They were fresher and we were banged up. They are a at the very moment a slightly better team and it showed when it mattered. End of story.

Us arm chair experts think so many games are lost at selection but imo its BS. 

[kruddler]

jack wasn't a factor.  Wasn't fit enough and up for selection.  We subbed fog for Kennedy because fog was having an ordinary day at the office.

Team balance doesn't cost you the way it did.  We had too few that were on and too many off.

Chicken and egg though.

Did we have an off day because too many were off?
or
Were too many off because they were expected to do more than they had been doing to this point?

[kruddler]

We played a team who finished 2nd and played them on a deck they haven't lost on all year. They were fresher and we were banged up. They are a at the very moment a slightly better team and it showed when it mattered. End of story.

Us arm chair experts think so many games are lost at selection but imo its BS.

Don't misunderstand what i mean.

No doubt Brisbane were most likely a bridge too far.
But we were out of it before it started. Had we not got the jump early, it would've been a VERY different result....an absolute smashing.

If we pick our best team, play our best and are beaten by a better team, i can live with that.
I just think that we screwed up at the selection table and it hurt our chances of winning....if we had any chance at all.

[PaulP]

.................................

Us arm chair experts think so many games are lost at selection but imo its BS. 

I have to agree. The very simple assumption that underpins these discussions is that the MC knows a lot more about our own players, a lot more about opposition players, has a lot more experience, have worked for years in the industry as players and coaches etc. It is therefore very logical to assert that they have a much greater chance of picking the best team to win. There are reasons involved that we simply cannot know. Far too many supporters follow the Max Delbrück principle ; "I don't understand this. It must be wrong." The correct starting point is to assume, quite logically that the MC has picked a better team than we ever could, and to try to understand why they made those choices. Trying to argue from the opposite starting point is an argument from incredulity : "I can't figure out what the MC did, therefore the MC stuffed up."

[ElwoodBlues1]

We played a team who finished 2nd and played them on a deck they haven't lost on all year. They were fresher and we were banged up. They are a at the very moment a slightly better team and it showed when it mattered. End of story.

Us arm chair experts think so many games are lost at selection but imo its BS. 

They are a good team and even better at home but the MC are humans who make mistakes like everyone else and have lost us games before but not this time imho. We picked a decent team but given they had the rest and we were banged up it was a tough ask...

[kruddler]

Obviously the mc have more Intel than your average punter.
But they are human and make mistakes the same as anyone else. Ive had little issues with them throughout the year apart from the obvious, but the preliminary side was one I was most uncomfortable with all year.

To be fair, we were probably as fit as we'd been all year too making it the toughest team to pick all year.....and with the most at stake.
I don't envy them, but I can criticise them 

[kruddler]

Jinx eb1

[ElwoodBlues1]

Jinx eb1

Or great minds ?

[Thryleon]

I agree the MC have picked the incorrect horses for courses, but they do so without knowing the full info about our opponents.

We tend to select the names on the sheet based on everyone's best footy and usually after selection night.  The MC do so knowing whether or not players are in good, bad or indifferent form, whether or not fringe players have had a rough trot and what impact that may have on them.  Notice we all tend to look at the same starting 18, and then tend to differ on the rest with usually only the mix being referenced as ways we've stuffed it but we don't know about the niggles that might only be a knock or a corkie or a muscle strain. 

Most of the time we look at who isn't there and their potential performance without any other info.

[PaulP]

I'd be curious to know how those of us on the outside can adjudicate when the MC picks the wrong team. Is it when we lose ? When they make selections that we don't agree with ? When some particular player has a bad game ?

Sure the MC are human and can make mistakes, but so are we human, which means we can also make errors, and when that is combined with the fact that we have gaps all over the place when it comes to knowing how to pick a team, I'm flummoxed at how people can be so super confident that they're right. If our MC is that shaky, please apply for a job at the club. We need all the help we can get.