AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

[LP]

I'm a bit worried about Daniher and Hipwood.

I would play Silvagni forward, drop Marchbank and play Ben... I mean Harry McKay in defence.

I think they'll be forced to ruck Daniher, Hipwood is a worry, he's had his way with our defence a few times.

But I think we should be more focussed on winning the stoppages and taking the likes of Daniher and Hipwood out of play altogether. The best way to stop them getting the footy, is to stop the footy getting to them!

Excluding unknown injuries I doubt we'll make more than two changes.

[Lods]

Xander McGuire
@xandermcg9
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Word around Lygon Street is that Matt Owies could be an unlucky omission for Carlton’s Preliminary Final. Cincotta also fighting to be fit.

Jordan Boyd likely to be a surprise return with Harry McKay and Jack Martin. 

Full teams announced tonight | @9NewsMelb @FootyonNine

[madbluboy]

Port beat the Lions in clearances the other week. We need to hammer them in that area.

[PaulP]

On paper it all points to a comfortable win for the Lions. If you look at with your head rather than your heart, there's no other conclusion one can reach. Everything points in that direction. If we are to win, it will be a performance that defies a lot of football logic.

We will have to pull out a performance for the ages to win, or conversely Brisbane will have to put in a shocker.

[rocky]

On paper it all points to a comfortable win for the Lions. If you look at with your head rather than your heart, there's no other conclusion one can reach. Everything points in that direction. If we are to win, it will be a performance that defies a lot of football logic.
We will have to pull out a performance for the ages to win, or conversely Brisbane will have to put in a shocker.

Think 1999 Preliminary final, ahhhh the joy, but yes hard to see us getting across the line on this occasion.

[PaulP]

Think 1999 Preliminary final, ahhhh the joy, but yes hard to see us getting across the line on this occasion.

Yes, we can all dream, but there's clearly a difference between hoping to win on the one hand, and making a prediction based on the usual variables and inputs, on the other. There's not a footy pundit anywhere that predicts a Calton win (not that I can find), and with good reason. I certainly get that none of us care how we get over the line, we just want to see it happen.

[Thryleon]

Yes, we can all dream, but there's clearly a difference between hoping to win on the one hand, and making a prediction based on the usual variables and inputs, on the other. There's not a footy pundit anywhere that predicts a Calton win (not that I can find), and with good reason. I certainly get that none of us care how we get over the line, we just want to see it happen.

That is fair Paul.

In fact the reason you say this is precisely why I will be elated if we win and why the Lions will simply focus on grand final day and the next win if they get up.  It's also why they will be crushed if they lose (at the prelim again) and why we won't be too disappointed with a loss unless its heart-breakingly close.

Thing is statistically, its a 50-50 chance that either side will win, admittedly if we played this game 10 times, the statistics will likely see a change in outcomes, but with a few variables, it could range from a convincing win to Brisbane, and a similar scenario for Carlton.

When it all comes down to it, its a game of footy.  May we all be complaining about tickets next week rather than anything else. 

[DJC]

On paper it all points to a comfortable win for the Lions. If you look at with your head rather than your heart, there's no other conclusion one can reach. Everything points in that direction. If we are to win, it will be a performance that defies a lot of football logic.

We will have to pull out a performance for the ages to win, or conversely Brisbane will have to put in a shocker.

And yet the analyses on the various footy all have us as the best performing team, followed by the Giants.  I guess that's on LED rather than paper 

David King's analysis is the outlier as he cites our inability to score more than 80 points in the first two finals as limiting our chances of progression.  The flip side is that our defence, in keeping our opposition below 80 points, is outstanding.

I think that's the key to the game.  Our rucks and midfield are equal to or stronger than Brisbane's, our defence is more than capable of keeping Brisbane's forwards to a losing score, but is our forward line capable of kicking a winning score?  On paper they are, but Charlie, Harry and the supporting cast will have to play a lot better than they did in our first two finals.

[WASurfer]

Agree DJC....the  margin in a final is irrelevant......kick more than your opponent...you win.

[Lods]

I'm going with ...I don't think we can win!

There's a scale to these things you know

1) Thinking you're no chance and getting up against the odds....that's number one, that's the best. (That's what most of us felt half way through the last quarter on Friday....and then it all changed.) ;D
2) Thinking you're going to win...and winning. That's the second best, but it doesn't rank with number one.
3) Thinking you're going to lose and losing....painful, but not unexpected.
4) Thinking you're going to win and losing....That really sucks and hurts.