AFL 1st Semi Final Carlton vs Melbourne Post Game Prognostications

[laj]

Last qtr of biased Blues Radio.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5qGEF0ibE4

[PaulP]

It's not their kicking for goal.  It's how they got the ball inside 50, where they took their shots from, their chains of possession and the pressure that we applied.  64 tackles to 49 explains the free kick discrepancy and the perceived pressure arising from that contributes to poor disposal efficiency; we had 15 more effective disposals.  We dominated the centre clearances and that has been our main avenue to goal all season. 

We had more rebound 50s, more bounces and we gained 200 metres more than Melbourne.  Our run and carry was effective and critical.

Then there's team selection and tactics.  Hollands gave us a lift when he came on but why on earth did Melbourne have Schache as sub, and then not use him? Pitto and the King negated Gawn and Grundy in round 22 but Melbourne went with just Gawn and opted to not contest hit outs (we should have capitalised on that), and Gawn had a broken toe.  Gawn's frustration with Pitto and the King became more obvious as the game progressed and his influence waned.  Melbourne's focus on the man and their ill-discipined acts cost them scoring opportunities and created opportunities for us.  Finally, our close game scenario planning paid off - lessons learnt from last season and perfected this season.

Leaving aside the sub issue, I guess you and I see the game differently. I'm not sure you can retroject a victor's narrative into that game, and bring all positive outcomes back into the agency of players and coaches. There are so many variables in football, that sometimes the better team doesn't win. I'm not sure why this would be considered unacceptable. I'm not suggesting we were blown out of the water. We played well, but Melbourne were better IMO, but we had some luck. And there's nothing wrong with that. It happens. Even Voss seemed surprised by the win.

[kruddler]

Melbourne had 1 more I50, 1 more mark I50, and 8 more scoring shots, and lost by 2 points. They took more marks, more marks I50, and more contested marks. Their kicking for goal is a real problem.

We had 7 more free kicks, lost the clearances, and had 10 more turnovers. Even Voss was surprised we won.

Look at the shots that missed, and look where the majority of them came from. Wide, on an angle. Low % shots.
Yes, they missed a couple of sitters, but so did Harry last week. It happens.

If we control the corridor, we force poor converting at goal, and thats exactly what we do.

Just as an aside Pauly, i've noticed you seem to be overly negative of late. Its creeping into a lot of your posting and it seems out of the ordinary. Everything ok?

[Lods]

Hopefully Paul is fine.
I think what we're seeing is just a difference in supporter approaches.

It's the glass half full/empty phenomenon.
We're all stoked that we're still in it.
For some, the lid is well and truly off and they can't see 'where we'll lose a game'.
They look at the games ahead and think 'Why not!'.

For others, the lid is still on but there's a sign of movement
They look at where we've come from, the injuries to significant players (some held together by masking tape) and wonder whether we can drag ourselves over the finish line.

Some of the stats are against us to the point where we've won against the odds.
So 'luck' is playing a huge part.

Effort, luck and durability will all play a part.
Effort is about the only thing we can control.
Have no doubt that if we win this from the position we were at half way through the season it may very well be the best flag ever...and that's saying something.

[Gointocarlton]

We get two vital players back who straighten us up. If we "play our way" as its called these days, we are every chance to be able t beat Bris. Charlie is due for a big one, we all know he can absolutely turn a game on its head even against top defences.
Senior players like Cripps, Doc etc can literally reach out and touch a GF appearance, don't underestimate the power of that. The pressure is ALL on Bris, for us its a free hit. I'm not kidding myself, a hell of a lot has to go right for us and we cannot afford even one injury. But we dare to dream and daring they must be.
Go Blues.

[Gointocarlton]

And just in case you didn't believe, this should get the blood pumping

https://www.carltonfc.com.au/video/14349...5072880001

[Thryleon]

Hopefully Paul is fine.
I think what we're seeing is just a difference in supporter approaches.

It's the glass half full/empty phenomenon.
We're all stoked that we're still in it.
For some, the lid is well and truly off and they can't see 'where we'll lose a game'.
They look at the games ahead and think 'Why not!'.

For others, the lid is still on but there's a sign of movement
They look at where we've come from, the injuries to significant players (some held together by masking tape) and wonder whether we can drag ourselves over the finish line.

Some of the stats are against us to the point where we've won against the odds.
So 'luck' is playing a huge part.

Effort, luck and durability will all play a part.
Effort is about the only thing we can control.
Have no doubt that if we win this from the position we were at half way through the season it may very well be the best flag ever...and that's saying something.

In euro 2004, I gave Greece 0 chance of winning against most of their opposition who were better credentialled, better manned, and in better health heading into each and every single game they played.

Thing is, the national team hit a vein of form that was unlikely to be repeated both in qualifying and at the major tournament proper, which resulted in seeing them lift a trophy by any sense of the imagination they had no business lifting against a much more fancied opponent on their own deck no less. 

Once you are in finals, all bets are off, what should and shouldnt happen is up to fate, and luck will have some bearing on how this all plays out.

Thing is, pressure can do funny things to a team.  Our boys have choked under pressure over the past 24 months but less so in the past 12 weeks, and have shown an ability to lift beyond that, and whilst the pressure is not on us at the moment, the teams we are playing against are pressuring us, and we are standing up.

They are not exactly thriving under pressure either.  Collingwood have not had a good 8 weeks.  Brisbane are showing scintillating form, but have had minimal adversity to play through, so if things do happen to go against them, how will they cope?

No one knows.  We are here in a prelim, for the first time in what is effectively my adult lifetime (I turned 18 in 2000).  We have a pretty good record at turning finals appearances into flags from an efficiency perspective, and the weight of expectations do more to work in our favour than not.

Of our finals opponents, I think we have shown the least capability of being an accomplished premiership winning outfit, even at our scintillating best, and we are about 2 notches below that currently, but with sport, you just never know.  For me, I am enjoying the ride, looking at it one contest at a time, and hoping for the best knowing at the back of my mind that irrespective of what happens, from here, the best performing team will win the flag. 

We are giving it a red hot go, and our window has been smashed open this season so enjoy the next few years as we are in that frame. 

[PaulP]

Thanks to those who have enquired after my emotional well being. Apart from fairly self evident, big ticket issues which should be of concern to any sane person, I’m fine.

I consider my assessment of the game to be fair and balanced, and free of any Navy Blue bias. At any rate, I don’t want to put a dampener on the euphoria that is clearly sweeping through the supporter base, so I’ll leave it at that.

[Thryleon]

[member=64]PaulP[/member] Its an opinion based forum we are on.  All im saying is get excited.  We have no guarantees, and enjoy the ride.  We might be a bit flat next week, but we can consider season 2023 a raging success either way!

No hard feelings at all from me mate!  Everyone Navy is ok in my book (with the odd exception for rather personal reasons). 

[BluePhantom]

We weren't expected to win in 99 against the cheats.
The Cheats also weren't expected to win in 93.
There are heaps of examples like this.
Just freshen up and then go out and do your best leaving nothing on the table.
That's all we ask.
Apart from their win over Port all their games have been close, so they are not dominating.

Go Blues