AFL 2023 Semi Final Carlton vs Melbourne at the MCG

[townsendcalling]

Hollands Sub

[Gointocarlton]

This mob will be very hard to beat tonight, make no mistake about it. They are talented and very well coached and as I have said before, they will not play two stickers in a row, especially in front of goal. The likelihood of them going out in straight sets from top 4 is very slim IMO. We, structurally, have two very important players out and couple (Cripps and Acres) are a little banged up. If its tight I'd like to think we have had enough practice at hanging on our pinching it. Defensively they have to pillars who will make life hard for Charlie. 
Top 10s In no particular order:
Charlie
Cripps
Cerra
Walsh
George
Acres
Weiters
Doc
Saad
TDK
V
Gawn
Petracca
Oliver
Viney
Fritsch
Pickett
Langdon
May
Lever
Salem
Too hard to call.

[kruddler]

They don't really have a forward structure, at least not a settled one. 

They have tried Brown (7 games for 11 goals), Grundy (17 for 10) and McDonald (7 for 9) as key forwards and none of them have worked.  Van Rooyen (20 for 28) is probably their most consistent tall forward but his attempt at thuggery cost him a place in the team.  Fritsch (16 for 36) and Pickett (22 for 35) are their most dangerous forwards.  After that, they rely on midfielders and they won't be getting too many easy opportunities.  Melksham is a significant loss too.

Our seven in form defenders and overall team defence should ensure that Melbourne don't get to jury rig a forward structure.

We'll miss Harry and Jack but we've shown that we can adjust to the circumstances ... like having nine goal scorers last week when Charlie and Harry were quiet.  Ash Hansen has done a pretty good job with our forward structures.

Well that's basically it, they don't have one that they can rely on because the consistency isn't there.

I think we are slightly too tall down back though. If they play through the smaller players, we'll struggle chasing tail.

[ElwoodBlues1]

They don't really have a forward structure, at least not a settled one. 

They have tried Brown (7 games for 11 goals), Grundy (17 for 10) and McDonald (7 for 9) as key forwards and none of them have worked.  Van Rooyen (20 for 28) is probably their most consistent tall forward but his attempt at thuggery cost him a place in the team.  Fritsch (16 for 36) and Pickett (22 for 35) are their most dangerous forwards.  After that, they rely on midfielders and they won't be getting too many easy opportunities.  Melksham is a significant loss too.

Our seven in form defenders and overall team defence should ensure that Melbourne don't get to jury rig a forward structure.

We'll miss Harry and Jack but we've shown that we can adjust to the circumstances ... like having nine goal scorers last week when Charlie and Harry were quiet.  Ash Hansen has done a pretty good job with our forward structures.

Agree....but Id add Petracca to their forward line and it looks a lot more dangerous, I would have preferred them adding Brown or Grundy, the smaller lineup with Petracca down there concerns me more. They bombed the ball last week and wasted opportunities but with less tall targets they will be looking to run and carry the ball I50 more and I wouldnt want us to be too tall or slow down back.

[DJC]

Agree....but Id add Petracca to their forward line and it looks a lot more dangerous, I would have preferred them adding Brown or Grundy, the smaller lineup with Petracca down there concerns me more. They bombed the ball last week and wasted opportunities but with less tall targets they will be looking to run and carry the ball I50 more and I wouldnt want us to be too tall or slow down back.

Petracca going forward is a bit of a two-edged sword.  He can be dangerous and is big enough and quick enough to trouble a lot of defenders and will demand Kemp or Guv as an opponent.  The downside for Melbourne is that their midfield is considerably weaker without him.

I was hoping for Brown or Grundy too.

[pertz]

Yep, that's the worry for me..our defence is too tall and slow. Marchbank should have been replaced with a quicker player.

[DJC]

Yep, that's the worry for me..our defence is too tall and slow. Marchbank should have been replaced with a quicker player.

I think that our defenders match up very well against Melbourne's forwards in terms of size and quickness:

Petracca 187 Kemp 193
Fritsch 188 McGovern 191
Jordan 187 Marchbank 193
Sparrow 183 Cincotta 186
McDonald 195 Weitering 196
Neale-Bullen 183 Cincotta 186
Chandler 175         Saad 178
Spargo 173

And our team defence and defensive structure will be too much for a cobbled together forward line that is struggling to score.

Effectively, McGovern has replaced Fisher from our last game against Melbourne.  Melbourne has replaced Grundy, Melksham and Van Rooyen with McDonald, Fritsch and Spargo.  Fritsch is a positive for them, even if he's going at half rat power.  Melksham and Van Rooyen are significant outs.

[Professer E]

I rate Hollands but I would have gone Dow, simply because I reckon the Dees are going to try to hammer us early and being lighter bodied Hollands might get targeted.  Watch for Viney to do something stupid early on, he's got form.

[Thryleon]

I rate Hollands but I would have gone Dow, simply because I reckon the Dees are going to try to hammer us early and being lighter bodied Hollands might get targeted.  Watch for Viney to do something stupid early on, he's got form.

He's the sub though.  You can't hammer a bloke on the bench.

[LoveNavy]

I have nothing to add to the rich discussion on this thread. Rather I'm hoping for our best and believe the rest will follow.

Enjoy Bluebaggers. Cheer with passion and pride. Stay safe and do your best to bring the boys home.

Go Blues. The time is now.