AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

[Baggers]

The problem is the small sample size.

Pittonet has come back from injury....and TBH, hasn't looked anywhere near his best. To the point where if given the opportunity, i'd pick TDK and Jack this week over him. 8th best ruck is a middle of the road ruck, which is acceptable. 6 worst forward is the elephant in the room and something i've been saying. He is either #1 ruck, or he is playing 2's. We can't afford to have him as #2 ruck.

Harry as a ruck is far from ideal. He is poor in the ruck. And very poor when it hits the ground. Another area where someone like Jack is a plus.

End result is our ruck setup this week will not be great no matter what option we end up choosing.

Yep, Pitto has to give us a massive lift in his form. Recent form from the big fella has been so-so. However wanting JSOS is a folly as he's out injured for a week or two.

We'll just have to trust our club when it comes to the dilemma of TDK & Pitto or H?? Having three talls does cause concern. Or do we throw TDK the challenge of rucking on his pat malone?

[Baggers]

I have an uneasy feeling about this one.

Everything says we should win and win well but the massive media microscope on the players coupled with the onslaught of platitudes make me wonder if their heads may be way too inflated to do the job.

IMO, our biggest opponent is actually ourselves, if our players think this game is in the bag before it has even been played, then the Swans are the sort of team that will make us pay for that.

Hope I'm wrong & Voss has been drilling them all week about how much work is needed to win a final. 

We only need to bring our hunting pressure and intensity and make the Fluffy Ducks feel it... then add efficient scoring to that pressure. We have the system, comradery and talent.

[kruddler]

Yep, Pitto has to give us a massive lift in his form. Recent form from the big fella has been so-so. However wanting JSOS is a folly as he's out injured for a week or two.

We'll just have to trust our club when it comes to the dilemma of TDK & Pitto or H?? Having three talls does cause concern. Or do we throw TDK the challenge of rucking on his pat malone?

If Pitto was fit, i'd ruck him alone.....but he's not (or at least wasn't - hopefully he is now)
I really don't like rucking Harry.

Honestly, i'd choose the extra mid Kennedy over Pittonet and have Cripps nominate for ruckwork around the ground when TDK is unavailable, and Harry when forward. Cripps wouldn't have to do any extra legwork as he is would be at the ruck contests anyway....he just gets to push and shove a ruck rather than a tagger.

We'd be able to use Kennedy as an extra big body at the stoppages to give him a chopout in the middle.
Would also rest Kennedy forward playing the Jack Silvagni 3rd tall / hit up forward role. Gives us an option should Harry have to cover TDK in the ruck.

[tex]

If Pitto was fit, i'd ruck him alone.....but he's not (or at least wasn't - hopefully he is now)
I really don't like rucking Harry.

Honestly, i'd choose the extra mid Kennedy over Pittonet and have Cripps nominate for ruckwork around the ground when TDK is unavailable, and Harry when forward. Cripps wouldn't have to do any extra legwork as he is would be at the ruck contests anyway....he just gets to push and shove a ruck rather than a tagger.

We'd be able to use Kennedy as an extra big body at the stoppages to give him a chopout in the middle.
Would also rest Kennedy forward playing the Jack Silvagni 3rd tall / hit up forward role. Gives us an option should Harry have to cover TDK in the ruck.

Don’t mind this idea

Also if BlAcres is out Kennedy should come back in. We need another hard mid, especially if it’s wet. Dow wont do it around the clinches

[ElwoodBlues1]

Its going to be Pittonet and TDK, or TDK and Harry doing the ruck imo...the weather will probably dictate which combo and its going to come down to the midfields and who dominates contested possies at clearances.
Dont think any of the rucks will be able to dominate and you will need as many contested style mids as you can muster because its going to be rough and ready at the stoppages given the Swans tend to run a few tags with Mills, Parker and Rowbottom hanging off the opposing key mids at most stoppages.
I know its irrelevant with Jack unavailable but being able to use him as that extra big mid as well as contest the ruck duels would have been handy given the conditions. Agree with Krud on Kennedy, with Jack out I like the options Kennedy can give you down forward and around the ball given Cripps will probably have a variety of players tagging him hard and I think our other mids like Cerra, Hewett and Walsh will need to be at their best which I think they will given we have a deeper set of mids imho and will come home a bit harder than the Swans.

[pertz]

The one thing that worries me is we rely heavily on scoring from stoppages. Around 70% of our scores are from stoppage. We are the number 1 contested ball tram ATM. Many experts say this is not healthy. Our scores from back half transition are poor. Less than 30%. The Swans will be well aware of this and will try and get us on the outside with their running game.  I know this may sound simplistic, but it's factual.

[Thryleon]

Not sure if its been mentioned, but there is only 2 teams in the 8 we haven't won against.
Lions and Swans.
We were in a different stage of development/form last time we played both, but it gives us something to prove.

last season our best win was against the Swans and from memory we were missing Harry and weiters that day.

It was at marvel, and Lochiel o brien played his best ever game at afl level, but you know, that was last year.

We could have beaten them this season but kicked ourselves out of it.

[PaulP]

The one thing that worries me is we rely heavily on scoring from stoppages. Around 70% of our scores are from stoppage. We are the number 1 contested ball tram ATM. Many experts say this is not healthy. Our scores from back half transition are poor. Less than 30%. The Swans will be well aware of this and will try and get us on the outside with their running game.  I know this may sound simplistic, but it's factual.

I mentioned this a few days ago, and apparently it's nothing to worry about lol.

Unfortunately for us at the moment, it's contest or bust. This may be a good thing in the final, if the wet weather makes the ball and surface slippery. I think a slow moving slog with contest after contest would work in our favour.

[Macca37]

The player who concerns me most is Harry.

His game against GWS was well below par, no doubt caused by the lack of match practice.  Given that he is still lacking match practice, why should we assume that he will be able to rise to the pressures of a finals game?

If he isn't able to do so and puts in a similar performance he will be a weak link that Sydney will be happy to exploit.

[tonyo]

The player who concerns me most is Harry.

His game against GWS was well below par, no doubt caused by the lack of match practice.  Given that he is still lacking match practice, why should we assume that he will be able to rise to the pressures of a finals game?

If he isn't able to do so and puts in a similar performance he will be a weak link that Sydney will be happy to exploit.

If Harry does nothing else but draw fire away from Charlie, his presence is very valuable.   We got found out a bit while Harry was out of the side, our scoring was definitely on the slide.  Our forward line against GWS looked like a bunch of midgets when Harry was in the ruck.