AFL Rd 9 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

[madbluboy]

Chris Judd was asked on radio if Ablett Jr could just rest down forward and kick 60 goals in the twilight of his career an his response was that small forwards have the hardest job in the game now and it's not where old players go to rest anymore.

No one kicks it to you unless it's a last resort under pressure, you run around chasing defenders who outnumber you to put pressure on even though you really have next to no chance of getting them but you have to do it.

[crashlander]

I don't think our small forwards were that bad.
[1] The forward was back to the rafters every time we got the ball inside 50. There was no room to move, and yet they managed 4 goals. Our tall forward couldn't, and they are better players (when they have some chance of getting access).
[2] They appear to have worked harder than the Lions' small forwards did. They had to, as Brisbane put the ball to their forward's advantage far more often than we did. Honestly, the small forwards of the Lions got on the end of other players' good play, they didn't generate anything. had they missed those goals (and it is hard to miss from 3 me out), then they probably would have been dragged for their poor efforts. Our smalls have been dragged for less (and probably deserved it).
[3] Brisbane didn't beat us in the forward line, they beat us in the midfield. Our guys worked hard enough, but when you turn the ball over as much as we do, guys who run to make position are out of position and can't get back to stop disasters. It was how Brisbane scored almost all of their score.
If our small forward were left one out as often the Brisbane ones were because of our turnovers, they could have kicked a lot more goals. Our defensive structures were actually pretty good, and our defenders beat their opponents.
[4] Our small forwards probably do have things to learn. They don't get many goals from crumbs off packs. When a pack forms, the defence almost always gets the ball away. Part of the problem is that our smalls are not that strong or super-quick. Durdin is probably the quickest and he is not express. If our guys were a tad stronger, they could break tackles (like some of the best small do) or they could use their strength to have enough time to get possessions.
Our smalls don't tend to be strong in the air either. They tend to have very few contested marks. The only marks they get are on the lead, and we generally don't look for them on the lead.
Our setups at packs generally don't end up allowing our smalls to get possessions. We need to work on that, so our small are at the fall of the ball when the pack mark is not being made.
[5] Owies will probably be back next week, probably for Honey. I've given up on Honey. He has a number of good traits, but we don't see him marking (he is stronger in the air than we've ever seen from him) and he doesn't get snap goals. He tends to get goals from general play, and runs into them, or from marks where he has a set snot (which he doesn't kick enough).
If Honey is going to remain on our list, he has to move into a different role. He does not have the forward craft to do his present job.
Owies, on the other hand, draws frees, which he kicks if he is close enough (he can't kick 50 m). He does get snap goals and he even sometimes gets goals off the pack. Not a lot, but more than any of our others. His negative game is elite. Very few small forwards work as hard as he does. But he isn't super - strong or super-quick either, but he has other strings to his bow.
[6] None of our forwards, tall, mid or small, kicks accurately enough.
When Jack started he was deadly, especially on the snap. He still kicks more than his share of goals from snaps. It is his set shots that have decayed, and they have decayed badly. After a bad spell he started doing a lot of kicking practice and he had a specific routine for kicking goals. It worked; his percentage went up considerably. He moved away from that routine and that percentage has dropped off.
Mind you, he also tends to have shots from the boundary. He rarely gets a set shot from in front because Charlie gets those balls. Had badly needs to generate a routine again and get his shot percentage up considerably.
H ... what can I say? Kicking has always been his issue. With his kicking style, it probably always will be. But we need to get a kicking coach for him to can fix his issues. After all, Fev was a shocker once. He became deadly. It can be done.

[crashlander]

Chris Judd was asked on radio if Ablett Jr could just rest down forward and kick 60 goals in the twilight of his career an his response was that small forwards have the hardest job in the game now and it's not where old players go to rest anymore.

No one kicks it to you unless it's a last resort under pressure, you run around chasing defenders who outnumber you to put pressure on even though you really have next to no chance of getting them but you have to do it.

I wish he were wrong, but small forward needs a special skill set. Eddie Betts had it, but few others do. It is one of the harder positions to play, unless you have a huge presence. None of our smalls do; they do not attract the ball. Our tall forwards have presence.

[Thryleon]

I don't think our small forwards were that bad.
[1] The forward was back to the rafters every time we got the ball inside 50. There was no room to move, and yet they managed 4 goals. Our tall forward couldn't, and they are better players (when they have some chance of getting access).
[2] They appear to have worked harder than the Lions' small forwards did. They had to, as Brisbane put the ball to their forward's advantage far more often than we did. Honestly, the small forwards of the Lions got on the end of other players' good play, they didn't generate anything. had they missed those goals (and it is hard to miss from 3 me out), then they probably would have been dragged for their poor efforts. Our smalls have been dragged for less (and probably deserved it).
[3] Brisbane didn't beat us in the forward line, they beat us in the midfield. Our guys worked hard enough, but when you turn the ball over as much as we do, guys who run to make position are out of position and can't get back to stop disasters. It was how Brisbane scored almost all of their score.
If our small forward were left one out as often the Brisbane ones were because of our turnovers, they could have kicked a lot more goals. Our defensive structures were actually pretty good, and our defenders beat their opponents.
[4] Our small forwards probably do have things to learn. They don't get many goals from crumbs off packs. When a pack forms, the defence almost always gets the ball away. Part of the problem is that our smalls are not that strong or super-quick. Durdin is probably the quickest and he is not express. If our guys were a tad stronger, they could break tackles (like some of the best small do) or they could use their strength to have enough time to get possessions.
Our smalls don't tend to be strong in the air either. They tend to have very few contested marks. The only marks they get are on the lead, and we generally don't look for them on the lead.
Our setups at packs generally don't end up allowing our smalls to get possessions. We need to work on that, so our small are at the fall of the ball when the pack mark is not being made.
[5] Owies will probably be back next week, probably for Honey. I've given up on Honey. He has a number of good traits, but we don't see him marking (he is stronger in the air than we've ever seen from him) and he doesn't get snap goals. He tends to get goals from general play, and runs into them, or from marks where he has a set snot (which he doesn't kick enough).
If Honey is going to remain on our list, he has to move into a different role. He does not have the forward craft to do his present job.
Owies, on the other hand, draws frees, which he kicks if he is close enough (he can't kick 50 m). He does get snap goals and he even sometimes gets goals off the pack. Not a lot, but more than any of our others. His negative game is elite. Very few small forwards work as hard as he does. But he isn't super - strong or super-quick either, but he has other strings to his bow.
[6] None of our forwards, tall, mid or small, kicks accurately enough.
When Jack started he was deadly, especially on the snap. He still kicks more than his share of goals from snaps. It is his set shots that have decayed, and they have decayed badly. After a bad spell he started doing a lot of kicking practice and he had a specific routine for kicking goals. It worked; his percentage went up considerably. He moved away from that routine and that percentage has dropped off.
Mind you, he also tends to have shots from the boundary. He rarely gets a set shot from in front because Charlie gets those balls. Had badly needs to generate a routine again and get his shot percentage up considerably.
H ... what can I say? Kicking has always been his issue. With his kicking style, it probably always will be. But we need to get a kicking coach for him to can fix his issues. After all, Fev was a shocker once. He became deadly. It can be done.

Owies is currently the forward on our list who I think converts the best from his opportunities.  I'd be staggered to find out his set shot percentage is probably the best of our forwards and usually converts very well like you said within range.

[Macca37]

There is an interesting article in The Age online which states:

"The theory has been you stop Paddy Cripps and you stop Carlton. And it is true to an extent.

The other part to the newer theory is that, presently, you can rely on Carlton to do the job for you.  Carlton helps stop Carlton.........their ball use is dreadful for a side with pretensions to the finals."

It also adds that Carlton gave up 85 points from turnovers against Brisbane, and if you exclude the West Coast game we are bottom 3 with North and West Coast for points conceded from turnovers.

No wonder the supporters are restless.

[pinot]

Or small forwards have been horrible ever since the three amigos were at their peak... we have not had an effective small forward lne and we have neglected it until recently and still needs alot of work.

[spf]

Worth remembering that Brisbane went out and bought Charlie Cameron. Adelaide did the same when Eddie Betts left us. If you want an elite forward, perhaps go and get one and be prepared to pay.

[Baggers]

There is an interesting article in The Age online which states:

"The theory has been you stop Paddy Cripps and you stop Carlton. And it is true to an extent.

The other part to the newer theory is that, presently, you can rely on Carlton to do the job for you.  Carlton helps stop Carlton.........their ball use is dreadful for a side with pretensions to the finals."

It also adds that Carlton gave up 85 points from turnovers against Brisbane, and if you exclude the West Coast game we are bottom 3 with North and West Coast for points conceded from turnovers.

No wonder the supporters are restless.

It was a pretty accurate article and hard to argue with.

Michael Gleeson also wrote in that article in The Age... ('they' refers to BrisVegas)... "They knew the numbers pointed to Carlton turning the ball over under pressure, and they ratcheted up the way they hunted the man with the ball. They closed down space, then they closed down the exit options and forced the Carlton player into panicked error. Their plan worked."

In other words, 'soft' ...mentally. Or simply clueless at responding to pressure with even more of our own. Reactive, not proactive.

The leaders at our club sure do talk the talk. Walking the talk is another matter, entirely.

[Lods]

Under pressure!
It's something that's overlooked a bit when discussing player skills.
I reckon some of our worst users of the ball could probably drop a football into a garbage bin from thirty metres on a training track...with no pressure. ;D
But put them under match pressure and they all have a different level of tolerance to that pressure.
When there is little pressure those skill deficiencies aren't as apparent (see the West Coast game).
When the pressure is really on some players stand up...others don't, to varying degrees.
It's when the skill deficiencies are found out...and we still have quite a few.

[cookie2]

Used to be "stop Judd, stop Carlton". Now it's  "Stop Cripps...". Seems to be working.