Russian Ukraine War

[cookie2]

That would present a further danger in terms of the transition.
Would the 'football" and the codes be secure during that uncertain period.
Unlikely.

The world order is changing before our eyes Lods and stakes are high. Some will win some will lose and some will be sacrificed. Very  unpredictable times.

[northernblue]

The West's goal is no doubt regime change in Russia.

Pre this year it didn’t have to be, Putin has bought that on himself.
It’s almost at the point where the world cannot step back given the wider implications…

[ElwoodBlues1]

Pre this year it didn’t have to be, Putin has bought that on himself.
It’s almost at the point where the world cannot step back given the wider implications…

Putin wants to be remembered in history as a war hero like Stalin,he wants a win and his part in Russian history. With his health fecked he wants to do it before the Hellhounds come for him and that makes him dangerous as he has nothing to lose.
Toss of the coin whether he goes nuke or the West via Ukraine offer a deal that allows him to withdraw with some dignity so he puts his toys back in the box.

[cookie2]

EB I'm not sure what Putin will finally settle for but it will certainly include the whole of the Donbas and most of the other areas the Russians have now occupied. Whether he will go for control of the whole of the Black Sea coastal regions including Odessa and into Transnistria is not yet clear. If so, he is probably going to wait out the Autumn rains until the ground freezes into Winter when the heavy equipment can move around more easily.

[ElwoodBlues1]

EB I'm not sure what Putin will finally settle for but it will certainly include the whole of the Donbas and most of the other areas the Russians have now occupied. Whether he will go for control of the whole of the Black Sea coastal regions including Odessa and into Transnistria is not yet clear. If so, he is probably going to wait out the Autumn rains until the ground freezes into Winter when the heavy equipment can move around more easily.

Probably settle for the Donbas but Ukraine won't be in it imho. Reckon they want all their land back plus a neutral bit inside Russia.
If Sweden and Finland go with NATO then I can see Putin really losing his cool.

[Baggers]

Probably settle for the Donbas but Ukraine won't be in it imho. Reckon they want all their land back plus a neutral bit inside Russia.
If Sweden and Finland go with NATO then I can see Putin really losing his cool.

No matter what Putin settles on there will be underground Ukraine forces that will continually eat away at and undermine any captured cities/towns (no doubt with support from other nations/CIA). Poorly conceived and executed plan from Putin... he thought he'd have all of the Ukraine in weeks. But as others have mentioned, a lunatic with his finger on the button backed into a corner... He's also getting increased pressure at home, to further corner him. Locking up thousands of your own protesting citizens seldom ends well.

[DJC]

Putin has to be aware that his forces can’t get a decisive victory over Ukraine’s much smaller military, albeit bolstered by some of the West’s military hardware.  He must be doubly aware that his military would have little chance in a conventional war against the EU let alone the USA or NATO.  Hopefully, he would also be aware that a nuclear strike would result in the obliteration of Russia … and much of the world.

It should also be apparent that time is not on his side.  The longer the conflict persists, the more the disparity between the military capacity of Ukraine and that of Russia will translate into military success for Ukraine.  Despite the effective Russian media control, morale and support for Putin has to take a dive.

[northernblue]

Putin has to be aware that his forces can’t get a decisive victory over Ukraine’s much smaller military, albeit bolstered by some of the West’s military hardware.  He must be doubly aware that his military would have little chance in a conventional war against the EU let alone the USA or NATO.  Hopefully, he would also be aware that a nuclear strike would result in the obliteration of Russia … and much of the world.

It should also be apparent that time is not on his side.  The longer the conflict persists, the more the disparity between the military capacity of Ukraine and that of Russia will translate into military success for Ukraine.  Despite the effective Russian media control, morale and support for Putin has to take a dive.

Despots often don’t reason too well though…

[mateinone]

Really really long post here, but because I have a number of close friends in Russia, I can't really post too much publicly in case it in some way it impacts them, but well there is far less chance something here gets read as opposed to on Facebook/Twitter etc.

It doesn't matter whether Putin is deathly ill or not (I don't personally believe that he is), what matters is the fact that if he loses this war outright, he is ousted, exiled, jailed or murdered ('dies peacefully in his sleep').

Someone mentioned that he wants to be remembered like Stalin and this is pretty accurate, or even more so like Peter, Catherine or Vladimir the "Greats". Russia/Ukraine has a long and complicated history, but this history only serves his purpose to be remembered forever. Obviously Kiev was the jewel in the crown of the Kievan Rus for a good few hundred years, but the ruling family were not actually local originally in any case. Kievan Rus was broken in many principalities, Moscow being a minor one amongst them. But the ruling class of Moscow did not represent the general population of Kiev and the areas now known as Ukraine. It does however play hard at the heart of Russians who truly believe Ukraine is "Russian" land and always has been. Winning this territory back for Mother Russia would be wildly popular with the Russian population.

In regards to mobilization, some things that it is not, that the west was buying
- It is not only 300,000 people
- It is not only reservists
- It is not excluding people deemed 'unfit' for work.. As  an example of this, I know of a man in his 40s with 2 young children to care for that presented a certificate that should have excluded him when he was drafted. The response of the recruited was "Do you think I give a f**k about your certificate?"
- They will not spend 3-5 months training to be battle ready for the war, they are mostly cannon fodder.
- Most Russians called up will go and fight in Ukraine, they won't desert.

Their method of rounding up is quite comprehensive, with military surrounding all exits to a town, then the recruiters going in and basically rounding up as many men as they can. All business are being asked to supply a list of all males that work for them and their suitability to perform in the war.


As mentioned, most Russians will NOT desert. They are unhappy to be called up, but see it as a duty they must fulfill if called upon, or see it as a hopeless situation to try and desert. Remember, despite Russia not having a death penalty, it has been made clear to many in the armed forces that they will be shot if they desert or if they retreat without orders.

As for Putin and the nuclear option, well does anyone have the slightest doubt that Hitler would have used a Nuclear weapon, even knowing it would cause a nuclear war that killed everyone? In Putin's eyes, I have little doubt he is seriously considering using a nuclear weapon and even starting a full blown nuclear war, if he can't have what he wants. For him it is seriously a consideration as an option when put up against the option of withdrawing his forces from Ukraine and being seen as weak in the eyes of the Russian public.

Whilst support for the war in Russia is nowhere near the 90%+ levels that a vote would suggest it is, the number is still very high (above 60% for sure and likely above 70%). A lot of Russian people believe the internet is full of misinformation and propaganda from the west aimed at bringing Mighty Russia to it's knees, to subjugate the country through misinformation and dissent. They truly believe what they hear on state broadcast television is much more accurate than what they can get on the internet, it is a form of "Stockholm Syndrome" that large swathes of the country suffer from.

As for regime change ONLY Russians will decide if there will be regime change. There is a very very slight chance the populace breaks out into a revolution, but this is minuscule. The only realistic chance of regime change is if the elite decide on it, but even this is extremely difficult. If you are suspected, you will die through committing suicide from a hospital/apartment/hotel window. The last thing of course, is that Putin is not the most extreme person within the Russian elite. History shows us extreme people often rise to the very top, because others are so fearful of repercussions if they oppose them, so there is a quite reasonable chance that if Putin was ousted/died etc, that a more extreme person could come in and lead the country. The very hated ex president/prime minister is one example of someone who has been strongly advocating for the use of nuclear weapons, this could be to try and fix his public appeal as he is reviled in Russia, but it might just be that he is also a lunatic and would come in and press buttons to get the job done.

[Professer E]

Gees that's just uplifting reading.