China

[capcom]

Strange that you think diplomacy is useful only if you can bend the other side to our will.

Even stranger than you believing diplomacy is a feature of their political dealings.

[Mav]

So a Cold War setting would be fine by you?

[Lods]

So a Cold War setting would be fine by you?

I think we're already there.

I'm a little young to remember the Cuban Missile crisis. I think our parents shielded us a bit from news like that back in the day, but I can't think of another time when I've been as concerned about the prospect of a 'hot' war.
It's only a wrong move by someone away.

Diplomacy is always worth the effort, and I understand at some high level the Russians, Chinese and Americans are all still very much in  discussions...but the aim of those is to stop things from escalating further rather than pulling back.

There is a danger, as we've seen in Ukraine, in being unaligned.
You may end up fighting a proxy war for a Superpower where they'll supply you with arms, but essentially your on your own.
Would Putin have been so bold if Ukraine had already been part of NATO?

At the end of the day the big concern is that wars involving ground troops will prove to be very costly.
Russia is struggling to tame a corner of Ukraine.
How would their army go against the combined armies of NATO.

How difficult would it be for another country to occupy and hold control over a country as vast as Australia.
You would need a massive armed force and the logistics of resupplying that army would be a nightmare.

The options for such an attack aren't so much military ones...they're economic, cyber attacks or...perish the thought, nuclear.

[LP]

NATO should have taken Ukraine in instantly, Putin's a bully but the Kremlin isn't full of morons, they are not going to go down a path mutually assured destruction. All these powers have tactical nuclear weapons, much smaller devices than those used against Japan but still capable of destroying an air or naval base in a single blow. If there was any serious intent to use nuclear weapons I think they would have used these smaller devices by now because they are unlikely to cause an escalation.

So for me that is a huge tell, this is about wealth and power and nothing to do with ideology.

[ElwoodBlues1]

China would occupy Australia fairly easily imho given everyone lives on the coast.
They have massive air superiority and would parachute troops in.
Don't see any ground force major battles at all. They also have the largest Navy in the world and would bring in supplies to the coastal areas with air cover.
The USA would have to intervene early or we would be cooked very quickly.
Being a multicultural society I don't expect the same nationalistic defense we have seen from Ukraine either..

[DJC]

I think you’re vastly overestimating China’s military capacity EB … and underestimating our defence assets.

I’m working today - on a rain break - but I will provide further details when I get home.

Remember that China has one aircraft carrier - an ex-Soviet vessel that was never finished.  It’s very old technology and would be easy meat for our Collins class subs and air to surface missiles.

[Lods]

It's taken Russia an army of well over 100,000 men several months to gradually capture territory in a country with which it shares a common border.
How much harder to conquer an island nation over 7000km away.

Yes, our population is spread along the coast, but that coast stretches for many 1000s of kilometres and we also have many larger inland population centres especially through Victoria, New South wales and Queensland
How hard would it be to transport troops and supplies in the numbers that would be required to take territory.
That assumes no intervention or support from other countries for our cause which would make the task even more difficult and leave the attacker open for retaliation from others.

[Thryleon]

It's taken Russia an army of well over 100,000 men several months to gradually capture territory in a country with which it shares a common border.
How much harder to conquer an island nation over 7000km away.

Yes, our population is spread along the coast, but that coast stretches for many 1000s of kilometres and we also have many larger inland population centres especially through Victoria, New South wales and Queensland
How hard would it be to transport troops and supplies in the numbers that would be required to take territory.
That assumes no intervention or support from other countries for our cause which would make the task even more difficult and leave the attacker open for retaliation from others.

With all due respect to everything being considered, Russia is exercising restraint because people are not interested in wiping out the local populace.

They want to take it over, not eliminate it.  The west over simplified the Russian failures.  When the conflict is over, Russia want to retain its stronghold, by aligning the populace with their goals.  If they wanted to flatten it, and take it, they would have done it by now, and I expect that this is the status quo being aimed for.

The Chinese are using subterfuge anyway.  Purchase it all, and then after wards you dont need to invade it.  You get it by proxy.  Go to Glen Waverley and Box Hill.  Take a walk around.  Its not very western there anymore, and you feel like a tourist in your own neighbourhood.

Ideology is at the heart of every war.  Politics and resources along with ideology.  The key is eliminating identity which is why once you have a foreign nation going "same same" you are ripe for the picking by them, unless you are the stronger one.

China is way more interesting in Taiwan than it will ever be in Australia.  Our economy is its personal bank account.

[Gointocarlton]

China would squash us like an ant if they wanted to.

[Lods]

China would squash us like an ant if they wanted to.

They would, because they have nuclear weapons.
Much, much harder to defeat and occupy a country our size with military alone.