Election 2022 (Poll added)

[DJC]

George Megalogenis made an interesting observation on Sunday morning; our parliament now looks more like Australia.

There’s still a way to go but I think that’s a good sign for our nation’s future.

[madbluboy]

It’s up to the Fair Work Commission and then only for folk on the minimum wage.

I thought I heard Albo say no one should go backwards.

[DJC]

I thought I heard Albo say no one should go backwards.

He probably did but the Fair Work Commission only determines the minimum wage.  Wages growth for other workers will depend on economic policy and productivity, as well as enterprise bargaining.

[Thryleon]

I know he said wage growth at the bottom, but there are two ways to achieve that.

1.  Lift the minimum wage (this is an election promise and will impact none of us that earn a decent wicket, even as hyperinflation sets in).

2.  Make the cost of living cheaper.  This is not going to happen.

Which means the exact people who are going to wear the burden are those of us, who are not truly well off, but earn a pretty good crust.

The end of the middle class is upon us and we arrived here through no fault of any of our recent governments or policies.  We are going to have the recession that we have been able to stave off for the last 20 years, and I expect it to be quite horrific in the next couple of years.

[ElwoodBlues1]

Around 40% of folk, 20% directly and 20 indirectly are affected by the Fair Work commissions once a year ruling.
For those who have worked in Private enterprise they would know that contracts are reset around July 1st each year as rule of thumb.
My tip is Parliament will be recalled early to table a lot of Labors new promised legislation, given the amount of newbie cross benchers it may take them a bit of time to wade through the detail given they won't have the resources like the major parties and an early start will help offset those delays.
Labor should have the numbers in the house of reps and also with the Greens help and Jacqui Lambie be able to push most of their stuff through.
Our old friend Pauline looks she might hang onto her Senate seat..just.

[capcom]

I know he said wage growth at the bottom, but there are two ways to achieve that.

1.  Lift the minimum wage (this is an election promise and will impact none of us that earn a decent wicket, even as hyperinflation sets in).

2.  Make the cost of living cheaper.  This is not going to happen.

Which means the exact people who are going to wear the burden are those of us, who are not truly well off, but earn a pretty good crust.

The end of the middle class is upon us and we arrived here through no fault of any of our recent governments or policies.  We are going to have the recession that we have been able to stave off for the last 20 years, and I expect it to be quite horrific in the next couple of years.

Albanese said the morning that there will be no cuts to the public service.  Wonder why?

[ElwoodBlues1]

I know he said wage growth at the bottom, but there are two ways to achieve that.

1.  Lift the minimum wage (this is an election promise and will impact none of us that earn a decent wicket, even as hyperinflation sets in).

2.  Make the cost of living cheaper.  This is not going to happen.

Which means the exact people who are going to wear the burden are those of us, who are not truly well off, but earn a pretty good crust.

The end of the middle class is upon us and we arrived here through no fault of any of our recent governments or policies.  We are going to have the recession that we have been able to stave off for the last 20 years, and I expect it to be quite horrific in the next couple of years.

Wages growth means higher inflation which means higher interest rates, that is the reality. Inflation is 8.5% in the USA which will flow on down here, we won't be as bad but any wages growth will be gobbled up.
Banks have to play ball as well which is doubtful imho, some are offering 2.9 % on term deposits already so mortgage rates are going up. Going to be a lot of defaults and houses for sale by years end...

[DJC]

Wages growth means higher inflation which means higher interest rates, that is the reality. Inflation is 8.5% in the USA which will flow on down here, we won't be as bad but any wages growth will be gobbled up.
Banks have to play ball as well which is doubtful imho, some are offering 2.9 % on term deposits already so mortgage rates are going up. Going to be a lot of defaults and houses for sale by years end...

Not according to a raft of economists speaking in the lead up to the election EB.

Wages growth linked to productivity isn’t inflationary.  The challenge for the new government will be to develop the framework for that to happen.  The first step would be to seek advice from beyond Treasury … but I’m not sure they’re that courageous/innovative. ?

[ElwoodBlues1]

Not according to a raft of economists speaking in the lead up to the election EB.

Wages growth linked to productivity isn’t inflationary.  The challenge for the new government will be to develop the framework for that to happen.  The first step would be to seek advice from beyond Treasury … but I’m not sure they’re that courageous/innovative. ?

DJ,  I'll go with the man who sets the cash rate and thats Philip Lowe,inflation tipped at 6% by years end and he expects wages growth to lag prices for a while yet, his expectation is around 3% wages growth.
Albo has promised 5% wages increases , he will need a magical framework to make that happen in the next 12 months Imho, gentleman Jim Chalmers also will need to help him by keeping the fuel excise cut and from what I read he didnt want to commit to that...Albo might get some help if the Russia/Ukraine conflict is resolved and China can get out of lockdown and Penny Wong can smooth the waters but with less stimulus in the market I dont see consumption increasing with interest rates going up and GDP being affected. A lot of moving parts to sync up for decent wages growth IMO and if Albo/Chalmers pull it off then they might have the job for a while....

[DJC]

DJ,  I'll go with the man who sets the cash rate and thats Philip Lowe,inflation tipped at 6% by years end and he expects wages growth to lag prices for a while yet, his expectation is around 3% wages growth.
Albo has promised 5% wages increases , he will need a magical framework to make that happen in the next 12 months Imho, gentleman Jim Chalmers also will need to help him by keeping the fuel excise cut and from what I read he didnt want to commit to that...Albo might get some help if the Russia/Ukraine conflict is resolved and China can get out of lockdown and Penny Wong can smooth the waters but with less stimulus in the market I dont see consumption increasing with interest rates going up and GDP being affected. A lot of moving parts to sync up for decent wages growth IMO and if Albo/Chalmers pull it off then they might have the job for a while....

Albo's commitment is that Labor would support a 5.1% pay rise for the 2% of Australians earning the minimum wage of $20.33 an hour if the Fair Work Commission determined that such a pay rise was appropriate.

There's a good discussion of why/how pay rises aren't inflationary here:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-13/m.../101060028

Basically, there's a lot of fat in the system that could be redistributed.