Election 2022 (Poll added)

[Gointocarlton]

Libs have a decent grip in my electorate so my vote isnt going to matter and I expect more of the same which was a free calendar fridge magnet each year and no further contact or information on what they were doing for my electorate.

I wouldnt be so sure of that EB, many electorates where the gov had a strong hold are crapting the pants. I'm tipping Labour will win this in a landslide with many blue ribbon seats falling Labours way

[LP]

I wouldnt be so sure of that EB, many electorates where the gov had a strong hold are crapting the pants. I'm tipping Labour will win this in a landslide with many blue ribbon seats falling Labours way

Traditionally, about 80% of voters are rusted on, the other 20% are variable.

It's why there are certain seats around the country that are tells.

In WA Hasluck for example is typically been rusted on +7.5% Liberal, but at the moment early poling has suggested it is 50/50 after a massive swing, but there are local issues and also a redistribution of boundaries that are affecting this result so I'm not sure it's that clear. In the TV debates the Lib boosters tried to point out to the Hasluck 50/50 split on Lib/Lab was a sign of a win, but in reality it's a about a -7% swing against the Coalition which is massive.

I suspect the more disenchanted the voters become with the likes of Scomo and Albo, the more they will vote on any local issues they can identify. I think this is why the Libs have kept blokes like Tugger Tudge under wraps. For that reason I'm not sure if Vic will swing as hard as some expect because Danger Dan is seen as a local issue.

Qld is unreadable, they are just as likely to vote numbat.

NSW want a Scomo and Parrotsay duet so they get all the love and happy clapping they need!

SA might be dead to Scomo after appointing Deves, it hard enough to ID a species in SA let alone a gender!

Some of the Coalition are making out the WA lockdown will cause a problem for Albo, but much of WA when asked about the Lockdown replied "Huh?" Lockdown doesn't mean much when you only drive to town once every six weeks for the big shop!

[Thryleon]

Yes, the voting demographics dont change.

1.  Oldies tend to vote Labor.  Pension and health related generally.  Its why the pandemic response was lock it down hard and fast according to labor.  Protect your rusted on voters, and they will thank you for it.

2.  Public sector workers tend to vote labor.  Protects their jobs and their employee rights generally but more of these people have been alienated by the hard line stance taken to the jab than anything else, and I think the consequence is that a portion of these will swing away.

3.  Youngsters.  Idealists these days more likely to go Greens than one of the big 2 but this benefits Labor also.  The recent issues and future problems are difficult to vote on, which means the last 15 years is going to be taken into account by most voters.  This leads me to believe that they will vote independent more likely.

4.  Corporate types, and business owners are usually liberal/national types.  Protect the bottom line, and I think we will see very few of them swing away from liberal.

5.  The mixed messaging will sway a few away from the people currently residing in power and that will depend on how the local electorates have been split in the past.  This will probably mean preferences will make a big difference this time around.

I expect more people to swing in this election than ever, HOWEVER, those swingers are more likely to vote independent because if they echo my sentiments and are just disillusioned with the status quo, and we are just going to see the independents swell their numbers modestly, at the expense of the bigger types.  The "big 2" haven't covered themselves in glory for the entirety of my adult life, and whilst I stay abreast of politics, there is generally a lot of hyperbole about it here and no big issues really.  What I find more distasteful, is the way they have behaved with in fighting and PM spilling that has occurred.  About 1 of the people I have voted in has retained their Prime Minister status since I started voting and I have voted in at least 5 coming on 6 elections now.  That's a very poor return.

My expectation:  Labor and Liberals to split about 80 percent of the vote, with one of them doing enough deals to form government at Federal level and likely the status quo to generally remain with Scomo retaining the Prime Minister of Australia title thanks to the independents.  I think they are more likely to be in bed with the Liberals than Labor.

At state level, I expect things will go quite similarly to how they are now.  You will see a few people swing around, but largely things will remain as is and the balance of power will be held in all states by those currently in power.

Times are a bit tricky.  Not too much change usually occurs during a war, with a currently still ongoing pandemic threat in the background, I expect that uncertainty does no one any good, and that things will largely remain unchanged.  We are in for a rough ride regardless who gets in anyway based on the tea leaves economically.

[ElwoodBlues1]

I wouldnt be so sure of that EB, many electorates where the gov had a strong hold are crapting the pants. I'm tipping Labour will win this in a landslide with many blue ribbon seats falling Labours way

Kevin Andrews was welded on  and only recently retired after getting knocked over in a preselection tussle.
Libs have never lost the seat...
The new Liberal candidate has a very impressive CV being a Barrister and ex Afghan war commando/platoon leader and has had a very hardcore marketing campaign to promote him even with TV advertising, the labor opposition has hardly been seen or heard of during the campaign and I'm not sure Labor have done her any favours or maybe dont rate her chances and didnt want to spend too many dollars trying to market her.

[Lods]

Qld is unreadable, they are just as likely to vote numbat.

If there is a numbat running in my electorate then they have my vote.

I have a feeling that this election will see a lot of our traditional views of voting trends change considerably.
I'm interested in the vote for the UAP/ One Nation parties
Just on the vax issue...there are a lot of committed anti-vaxxers, but there are a lot who are what we would term reluctant vaxxers who only got vaccinated to keep jobs or the ability to enter certain venues.
These folks resent a lot of the restrictions placed upon them and will take it out on both the federal and parties in control at State level. (Lib and Lab)

I suspect they'll have career best figures.

Add to that the Port Adelaide (Teal) independents they're likely to draw votes away from Labor/ Greens to some extent but their main target and where they hope to win seats will be in LNP seats.

All of this spells trouble for the LNP and I can't see them winning.
I'd also suspect Labor will have trouble achieving a majority government in it's own right.
As I said before...it's probably a good election to lose.

[capcom]

If there is a numbat running in my electorate then they have my vote.

I have a feeling that this election will see a lot of our traditional views of voting trends change considerably.
I'm interested in the vote for the UAP/ One Nation parties
Just on the vax issue...there are a lot of committed anti-vaxxers, but there are a lot who are what we would term reluctant vaxxers who only got vaccinated to keep jobs or the ability to enter certain venues.
These folks resent a lot of the restrictions placed upon them and will take it out on both the federal and parties in control at State level. (Lib and Lab)

I suspect they'll have career best figures.

Add to that the Port Adelaide (Teal) independents they're likely to draw votes away from Labor/ Greens to some extent but their main target and where they hope to win seats will be in LNP seats.

All of this spells trouble for the LNP and I can't see them winning.
I'd also suspect Labor will have trouble achieving a majority government in it's own right.
As I said before...it's probably a good election to lose.

If a QLD seat falls to Labor, colour me amazed. 

[DJC]

If a QLD seat falls to Labor, colour me amazed. 

Brisbane and Ryan are genuine three-way contests between Liberal, Labor and the Greens this time round. Labor seems to have the edge in Brisbane contest and Ryan could go to Labor or the Greens.  Leichhardt could be close and it's possible that Labor could lose Griffith to the Greens.

[capcom]

Brisbane and Ryan are genuine three-way contests between Liberal, Labor and the Greens this time round. Labor seems to have the edge in Brisbane contest and Ryan could go to Labor or the Greens.  Leichhardt could be close and it's possible that Labor could lose Griffith to the Greens.

Lilley could just as easily fall to the LNP.

[Macca37]

Yes, the voting demographics dont change.

1.  Oldies tend to vote Labor.  Pension and health related generally.  Its why the pandemic response was lock it down hard and fast according to labor.  Protect your rusted on voters, and they will thank you for it.

I believe the opposite is true.  In general the elderly are conservative, rusted on Coalition supporters.  Think of the last election when Labor proposed stopping the franking credits refunds which affected about 3 per cent of the elderly .  Panic set in amongst pensioners not affected in any way but it ensured they turned against Labor.

I recall Gillard, when prime minister,  saying something along the lines " why do anything for them, they won't vote for us."

[Lods]

I believe the opposite is true.  In general the elderly are conservative, rusted on Coalition supporters.  Think of the last election when Labor proposed stopping the franking credits refunds which affected about 3 per cent of the elderly .  Panic set in amongst pensioners not affected in any way but it ensured they turned against Labor.

I recall Gillard, when prime minister,  saying something along the lines " why do anything for them, they won't vote for us."

Tend to agree.
Among friends, my age and older, the majority are LNP voters.
Funny thing is that many have changed from being ALP voters in their younger years.