General Discussions

[Thryleon]

Merry Xmas and let's hope for a happy blue year! 

[LP]

Pretty grave news up north with the potential escalation between Russia and the Ukraine.

Insomnia aside, I listened to a Pommie political analyst overnight that made some alarming assertions. Distilled down her comments were basically;

 - The Russia / Ukraine conflict is being egged on by China.
 - China want a distraction in the north so they can point the world in that direction, a "look over there" moment.
 - While everyone is distracted in the north, China will increase it's push and build up towards the south.
 - China are betting the pandemic has stretched Western resources and resolve, and Europe will be too occupied to worry about SE Asia.

[Lods]

I think the Russians will probably do something in Ukraine.
It might be a partial incursion into areas of Ukraine that have strong Russian ties and sympathies.
or
it could take the form of a pro-Russian coup who then invite the Russian forces into the country to help with order.

What would be the response from Europe...a lot of bluster.
Several European countries, like Germany, have a strong reliance on Russian gas supplies.
The extent of Russian expansion and re-consolidation to something like the old USSR would probably be limited to immediately adjacent countries...Belarus, Ukraine...and the 'stans' to the south.

The further west, the more unlikely that those old Soviet era countries would wish a return to Russian influence.

I suspect if the Chinese started some shenanigans the US focus would switch to South-East Asia pretty quickly.

[LP]

I suspect if the Chinese started some shenanigans the US focus would switch to South-East Asia pretty quickly.

Possibly, but are you naturally optimistic?

It's interesting to think different regions have different perspectives, everybody thought the world had become more altruistic in recent times, then the pandemic hit and the big players all become introspective. Western economies vaccinated to booster level while the 3rd world suffered.

Would conflict be any different?

Japan will have some say in this, as will Sth Korea, and I agree I expect the USA will answer the call.

[Lods]

It's just a personal opinion, but I suspect that while Europe was a big issue for America post WW2, and especially during the Cold War, the USA probably feels that the Pacific is much more strategically important to their interests these days than Europe.

[LP]

It's just a personal opinion, but I suspect that while Europe was a big issue for America post WW2, and especially during the Cold War, the USA probably feels that the Pacific is much more strategically important to their interests these days than Europe.

Probably, but there is still a lot of old money out and about.

What happens with China on the border with India will also be interesting, and how Pakistan reacts.

Lot's of opportunity for this situation to head in the wrong direction, the Taliban has shown us how bad politicians and bureaucrats are at making predictions.

[capcom]

Putin is just toying with Biden.  He (as usual) will do nothing.  ZERO political capital left.

They sense he's done and they'd be right.  Afghanistan proved that.

[LP]

Afghanistan proved that.

I think that blaming Biden for Afghanistan lacks credibility, the damage was done long long before Biden arrived, it would be a bit like trying to blame Chancellor Merkel for WWII!

[capcom]

I think that blaming Biden for Afghanistan lacks credibility, the damage was done long long before Biden arrived, it would be a bit like trying to blame Chancellor Merkel for WWII!

Then why did not he evacuate from the protected fortified Bagram airport?  He alone stuffed that up.

[LP]

Then why did not he evacuate from the protected fortified Bagram airport?  He alone stuffed that up.

I'm not sure at this level a President is even involved in the planning.

I'm neither a Biden booster or a politician booster, but it seems a bit of a stretch to blame politicians for all such details. Maybe you can blame them for picking the date, but even that might not be a valid criticism, the broader strategy seems to be part of a long lead-up.