The rise.... and RISE of Marc Pittonet

[DJC]

@djc
Someone, maybe Northern blue? Has pointed out that the hitout to advantage stat is about if it reaches the target. Not if the player gets it.
That is, if the player fumbles, is bumped off the ball or $h!t5 a brick in the process.
By the same token, if a ruck hits it to a 50-50, and cripps dominates Nd gets the ball and clearance, it's still not a hitout to advantage.

It's a pure stat.

The ball has to reach the intended target.  That relies on the ruckman directing the ball accurately and the intended target moving to where the ball is hit.  If the intended target slips, is blocked, is too slow, misjudges the ball’s trajectory, or is beaten to the ball, the ruckman’s efforts are in vain and it’s not a hitout to advantage. 

Alternatively, a ruckman can hit the ball randomly and his midfielder picks the flight and gets to the ball.  That’s a hitout to advantage due solely to the midfielder’s skill/effort/luck.

[LP]

The ball has to reach the intended target.  That relies on the ruckman directing the ball accurately and the intended target moving to where the ball is hit.  If the intended target slips, is blocked, is too slow, misjudges the ball’s trajectory, or is beaten to the ball, the ruckman’s efforts are in vain and it’s not a hitout to advantage. 

Alternatively, a ruckman can hit the ball randomly and his midfielder picks the flight and gets to the ball.  That’s a hitout to advantage due solely to the midfielder’s skill/effort/luck.

Exactly why it is the most bogus stat in AFL.

The ball could flip a rucks finger, hit him in the face and bounce to a passing team-mate and be credited as a tap to advantage. The statisticians can't even know if the recipient was the intended target.

[kruddler]

The ball has to reach the intended target.  That relies on the ruckman directing the ball accurately and the intended target moving to where the ball is hit.  If the intended target slips, is blocked, is too slow, misjudges the ball’s trajectory, or is beaten to the ball, the ruckman’s efforts are in vain and it’s not a hitout to advantage. 

Alternatively, a ruckman can hit the ball randomly and his midfielder picks the flight and gets to the ball.  That’s a hitout to advantage due solely to the midfielder’s skill/effort/luck.

That is your interpretation of it and not the official statistical definition of it.

It's like people talking about the theory of relativity. It's 'only a theory'.
Different contexts, different interpretations.


....but for the sake of argument, let's go with what you think.
Would pitto, tdk and soj not be hitting to the same.midfielders anyway. So that variation on how good the midfielders are is balanced out amongst our own players.

[LP]

The problem for the stats people is that all the games can be replayed, you can do so at 1/2 speed if you like, and the discrepancies between what you see and what they record is astounding, it really exposes the subjectivity of the data process.

Plus you have the official source which uses AFL definitions, and competing sources that use definitions more closely based in language.

For example, the biggest most obvious contradiction you can find is "contested", the official stat requires no physical contact at all, in fact you only have to be within a step or so away yet not within arms reach to be contesting! So a defender who is done cold by the leading forward is contesting, and the forwards mark 100% free of physical contact is contested.

[madbluboy]

Is there a ruck stat for conceding hit outs to advantage or clearances?

[kruddler]

The problem for the stats people is that all the games can be replayed, you can do so at 1/2 speed if you like, and the discrepancies between what you see and what they record is astounding, it really exposes the subjectivity of the data process.

Plus you have the official source which uses AFL definitions, and competing sources that use definitions more closely based in language.

For example, the biggest most obvious contradiction you can find is "contested", the official stat requires no physical contact at all, in fact you only have to be within a step or so away yet not within arms reach to be contesting! So a defender who is done cold by the leading forward is contesting, and the forwards mark 100% free of physical contact is contested.

If you actually notice that hitouts to advantage are not available in real time. Generally only available after the game.
This is due to the scrutiny that certain stats require.

Your example is exactly as I was saying, a statically definition vs a layman's understanding.

[kruddler]

Is there a ruck stat for conceding hit outs to advantage or clearances?

I said in my post that this stat is required. Clearly skimming again.

[DJC]

That is your interpretation of it and not the official statistical definition of it.

It's like people talking about the theory of relativity. It's 'only a theory'.
Different contexts, different interpretations.


....but for the sake of argument, let's go with what you think.
Would pitto, tdk and soj not be hitting to the same.midfielders anyway. So that variation on how good the midfielders are is balanced out amongst our own players.

The official definition is "A hit-out that reaches an intended teammate."  There's certainly a lot of grey there and one stats taker may credit hitouts to advantage where another will mark them as just hitouts ... just like many other footy stats.

When Jack is rucking, our midfielders set up defensively with the intention of either sharking the opposition ruck's tap or tackling the opposition midfielder who takes possession.  They may also do that when our rucks are losing the hitouts or they may run a set play at selected stoppages.  Different factors come into play at centre bounces, ball-ups and throw-ins, particularly throw-ins close to goal.  The only common factor is that two rucks compete for a ball in the air.  It's an indicative statistic rather than a definitive statistic.

[DJC]

If you actually notice that hitouts to advantage are not available in real time. Generally only available after the game.
This is due to the scrutiny that certain stats require.

Your example is exactly as I was saying, a statically definition vs a layman's understanding.

Yet the commentators cite hitout to advantage stats during the commentary  :-\

I suspect that the stats just aren't available to the punters.

[Thryleon]

Just to recap, we have one of the best clearance players in the comp who was labelled the extractor.  You could ruck a crap ruckman to him, provided the ball hits him, and Cripps gets the clearance, then that's a tap to advantage correct?  Add Walsh, and im not sure it says much about any of our rucks capabilities over the last little while. 

I know what I see on game day, and against North, it was Goldstein monstoring us.  Against Adelaide it was O'Reilly. 

For all this debate going round in circles, our rucks dont dominate, they put in a respectable performance.

That goes for TDK, Pitto, or JSOS, but Pitto at this stage is the one that probably plays best on my subjective viewing of football. 

THERE< screw what the stats show.