CV and mad panic behaviour

[LP]

Where's your data?

The best data is coming out of Europe, in fact some of the European states that were previously skeptics are now lauding vaccination. Even the Danes who officially tried hard to be sceptical about vaccination could only find small percentage changes from the efficacy baselines for both Delta and Omicron. If the vaccines did not work against Omicron the percentage changes would have to be hundreds of percent, as you have to keep in mind the Danes are writing about percentage changes to a figure of about 10 - 15% percent.

Unvaccinated prospective secondary cases had similar attack rates in households with the Omicron and Delta VOCs at 29% and 28%, respectively. However, fully vaccinated individuals had SAR of 32% in households with the Omicron and 19% in households with the Delta VOC. Meanwhile, Omicron rendered a SAR of 25% in booster-vaccinated individuals, whereas Delta correlated to a SAR of only 11% in this cohort.

Seven days after the primary episode, which was considered a positive test result in this study, the cumulative chance of probable secondary cases rose from 33-41% to roughly 87-89%. The chances of secondary infection were higher in cases where the primary case, which was the first individual within a household to test positive, was with the Delta VOC rather than with the Omicron VOC.

So effectively, the same efficacy figures that apply to Delta effectively apply to Omicron.

Listening to the BBC overnight, the COVID report suggests new data coming out will confirm the vaccines efficacy for Omicron is still above 75%, that viral load of Omicron is reduce 1000x in vaccinated people who have had the booster, and that breakthrough infections are 2x more likely to come from an unvaccinated carrier than a vaccinated carrier. (Even though on average people are surrounded by 10x more vaccinated people than unvaccinated, you are still 2x more likely to be infected by the unvaccinated carrier, the risk is not just a function of head count it is also a function of viral load and mutation rates(Each variant VOC has hundreds or thousands of subtypes, the more viral load the more subtypes exist.)) This is interesting because if correct the UK study will confirms modelling studies conducted earlier by ATAGI, that vaccination still has high efficacy against severe disease, and that is exactly how the vast majority of vaccines work.

A mathematical modelling study has examined the relationship between neutralising antibody titres and vaccine effectiveness estimated in epidemiological studies. The investigators predicted that six months after primary immunisation with an mRNA vaccine, efficacy for Omicron is estimated to have waned to around 40% against symptomatic disease, and 80% against severe disease (36.7% [95% CI: 7.7-73], 70.9% [95% CI: 32.9-91.5] and 81.1% [95% CI: 42.1-96] for the AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, respectively). A booster dose with an mRNA vaccine has the potential to increase efficacy for Omicron to 86.2% (95% CI: 72.6-94%) against symptomatic infection and 98.2% (95% CI: 90.2-99.7%) against severe infection.

[LP]

Omicron data is starting to pile out of research centres now, over the next 3 to 4 weeks you will be flooded with it!

It typically takes about 3 months for new COVID papers to be drafted, submitted and peer-reviewed.

We must not forget even this is a massive achievement, in days gone by you would replace the word months with years!

[Thryleon]

There is a point that I find difficult to understand.

Had we not vaccinated, would the pandemic look any different?

Its really difficult to quantify (and I don't think anyone really wants to find out because that cat is out of the bag once its out and there is no changing it). 

Thing is, we should see a disproportionate number of cases, and excess deaths in regions where vaccination rates are low.

I.e.  There is a region of India, called Utter Pradesh.  They have registered few cases, and I would wager, have been able to vaccinate fewer rather than more in a population of over 200 million people.  Their numbers dont look ridiculous, and Id wager their access to health care slim.

For data's sake.

Their population: 

Population as of 2021 according to this page: https://www.indiaonlinepages.com/populat...ation.html

They have counted:  35.9 million cases, and 484k covid deaths.

They have vaccinated, 9.37b total doses, so have 3.92 billion fully vaccinated.  50% of their population.

You can spin these numbers how you like, and possibly support a variety of outcomes.  One thing I can state, is that they likely have population not counted, that similarly cant test positive, when you deal with such a logistical nightmare (look whats happening to our ability to count cases reliably in a city with 6 million people at a relatively small number of cases per day).

Irrespective of how you count this, should there not be a remarkably high number of excess deaths in those sorts of populations?  Vaccination rate is fairly low, so you would estimate the ability to protect in such a large population would be tricky, and their ability to distance, mask wear, do all the hand washing would be negligible too.

It's the sort of thing that never really rates a mention, and I understand why, its of no great comparison to us here in the western world, with big Australian backyards and not so much poverty. 

[madbluboy]

Patient zero at my work came in last Tuesday sick as a dog and was blaming their sore throat on a big new years.
That night their adult daughter tested positive. She did a rapid test which confirmed she was positive. She was in contact with 5 co workers that day and all were positive by Saturday. Now almost everyone who were in contact with them are becoming positive. Everyone is vaccinated. One guy brought the virus home to his wife and 3 kids, all vaxxed and all are positive. By what measure is the vaccine stopping transmition?

[LP]

By what measure is the vaccine stopping transmition?

Efficacy is not just a measure of infection prevention, in fact historically most high efficacy vaccines do not stop infection, efficacy is a measure of how a vaccine prevents severe / acute disease as well as how they reduce the risk of infection and transmission.

For example you can have a high efficacy vaccine if it stops most or all severe disease but does not stop infection / transmission at all.

You won't find any credible scientific or health source that claims the Sars-CoV-2 vaccines stop infection, that line of debate only ever comes from the anti-vax movement or others spinning selective reports for political purposes.

[madbluboy]

Telling the truth is not spinning.

If I take the virus home to my unvaccinated 5 and 6 year old boys me being vaccinated doesn't protect them.

[LP]

Telling the truth is not spinning.

If I take the virus home to my unvaccinated 5 and 6 year old boys me being vaccinated doesn't protect them.

It reduces their risk of being infected but it doesn't reduce the chance of them developing symptoms if they are infected.

If they are able to be vaccinated the evidence suggest they will be strongly protected against severe disease, but only you can make up your mind on that. For children and youth Omicron has changed the game, because it doesn't seem to have the same age bias that previous strains had.

[madbluboy]

I must be writing in another language. I give up.

[LP]

I must be writing in another language. I give up.

 Your chance of giving them COVID is reduced, it's pretty obvious.

[madbluboy]

Your chance of giving them COVID is reduced, it's pretty obvious.

Not in the real world.