CV and mad panic behaviour

[capcom]

I'd put them out of business if they're that inept at modelling.  Wackheads 

[cookie2]

Do we have a drama pandemic?

[Mav]

The Public Health Unit of the University of NSW predicted 25,000 new cases a day in NSW by the end of January (while noting the prediction doesn't factor in booster shots). Bracing though these predictions might be, they highlight what exponential growth means. Another way of seeing the same phenomenon is by looking at the huge spike in actual daily figures from the UK. 

[ElwoodBlues1]

Doherty modelling has proved inaccurate and tends to be worst case scenario. Governments like them that way to help sell the idea they are doing a good job dealing with Covid by always being well under those extreme targets imho. Not sure if those figures include u12s either.
Those numbers point to 8000 icu cases over the time frame used which would collapse the hospital system. Think we need to go back to masks, reducing crowd numbers, and limiting arrivals but not go into a mad panic.

[madbluboy]

The Public Health Unit of the University of NSW predicted 25,000 new cases a day in NSW by the end of January (while noting the prediction doesn't factor in booster shots). Bracing though these predictions might be, they highlight what exponential growth means. Another way of seeing the same phenomenon is by looking at the huge spike in actual daily figures from the UK. 

That sounds more realistic. We always knew when we opened up that the numbers were going to shoot up. Hopefully when we're 80% triple dosed they stop broadcasting the numbers and just give the ICU and death figures.

[Mav]

Help might be on the way!

Melbourne researchers trial use of common blood-thinning drug heparin to combat COVID-19, abc.net.au.

Nearly two years later, with the help of researchers at Melbourne, Monash and Oxford Universities, his team has been able to replicate international findings that heparin can block the transmission of COVID-19 and prevent infection.

The spray coats the nose but does not go down into the lungs. The researchers say it is cheap, easy to distribute and is expected to be effective against mutant strains of the virus including the Omicron variant.

"It won't matter if a new variant comes along, this drug will block that protein from infecting the cells," Professor Campbell said.

"I'm very confident that we can demonstrate that it will work, and people will be using this before they go to the shops and before they go to school."

Director of the Medicines Manufacturing Innovation Centre at Monash University, Michelle McIntosh, has spent the past 20 months working on the best possible formulation for the nasal spray.

She said some coronavirus vaccines had limited distribution in some countries because they needed to be stored at ultra-low temperatures.

"One of the wonderful things about heparin is it is already available on the market as an approved product for another purpose, it doesn't require refrigeration and can be stored in plastic vials so it can be distributed very widely and effectively," Professor McIntosh said.

"We are not proposing this as an alternative to a vaccination, it is a supplement for people who can't be vaccinated, but we do imagine it will be very widely used."

[Thryleon]

Irrespective of where you sit on covid, our hospitals run as lean as possible at the best of times.  They know how many are coming, what demographics, why they are likely to come and have planned to within a degree of additional capacity if and when required.

Covid has the ability to cause bedlam to that.  Think of what happened supply chain wise last year.  Everything is geared to a just in time and just enough for manufacturing.  Likewise health care to make it as resource efficient as possible.

Anyone ever seen a hospital waiting room empty?  13 years ive been in 2 different health services and the one take away i have for everyone is whilst the model is scalable its not easy to do so for a variety of factors.

Add a pandemic with even a moderate kick up in care and presentations and you result in a lot of issues.

[Professer E]

Speak to people in various industries and retail - supply chains were/are at close to collapse eg the Adblue debacle.  Seen the empty seatainer farms at Altona etc?  Just handling and moving stuff ATM is difficult.

[LP]

The Public Health Unit of the University of NSW predicted 25,000 new cases a day in NSW by the end of January (while noting the prediction doesn't factor in booster shots). Bracing though these predictions might be, they highlight what exponential growth means. Another way of seeing the same phenomenon is by looking at the huge spike in actual daily figures from the UK.

All the models have to be judged in a frame of reference for the model, for example some are "if all restrictions are removed", while others base themselves on "restrictions as currently applied" and adopted.

The media just lump all the reporting and modelling in as "like for like" but it isn't, it's not the epidemiologists that are confused or in error, it's the media and also how the media is manipulated for political purposes. But it's pretty easy to cut through all that spin if you choose to do so!

The media will take a worst case scenario and report it as the peak and infer a high probability, when it reality it's the peak with a very low probability. All the predictions fall on a bell curve of some sort, even when you see a hyperbolic or parabolic curve it's usually just a subsection of a larger bell curve.

[Mav]

Yep, in this case the modelling assumes no attempts at suppressing spread. That means it's a worst-case scenario. Ordinarily you'd think that means it's ridiculous as governments will be forced to act. But who knows what will happen in NSW? Perrotet seems committed to ditching any restrictions. And such predictions are a useful counter to those who say we should just let it rip and learn to live with the virus. They're in a bizarre situation of saying "Don't worry about those dire predictions as the Govt won't let it rip" and then later saying that the interventions were unnecessary and useless and we should have just let it rip.