CV and mad panic behaviour

[northernblue]

Or she could be a foaming at the mouth anti smoker, we’ll never know.

[Mav]

It looks as though we Victorians have dodged a bullet, though. Apparently, the Traffic Controller’s close contacts have all tested negative so far, so the chances are he didn’t infect anyone.

[LP]

Any advocates of letting it run free before enough of the population are vaccinated need to have a good look at how it all went wrong for Netherland over the last two months. Spiking at 11,000 cases a day two weeks ago, and still sitting at 3,500 cases a day at the moment despite starting the countries hardest lockdown so far back in early June.

https://www.google.com/search?client=ope...8&oe=UTF-8

They get to find out over the next few weeks how bad it could get as the deaths lag infections by about 3 to 4 weeks on average, although that lag/delay is lengthening as doctors get better at treating COVID-19.

Netherland only had about 35% of the population fully vaccinated when it opened up, when the Sars-CoV-2 specialists were telling them they needed more than 75% vaccinated. The politicians ignored the advice.

Gladys placed a similar bet! :o

[Mav]

We can also look at the UK. They have a vaccination rate we can only dream about 56% fully vaccinated (with the rate of vaccination for over-18s being about 88% for 1 dose & 70-80% fully vaccinated). When Boris Johnson dropped all restrictions on 'Freedom Day', the fear was the UK would unleash Covid on the world. But infection rates are going down. This is a hopeful sign: vaccinate over 60% (and preferably 80%) of the population and get back to living without Covid causing mayhem. Fingers crossed things go well in the UK.

[LP]

We can also look at the UK. They have a vaccination rate we can only dream about, 88% or thereabouts. When Boris Johnson dropped all restrictions on 'Freedom Day', the fear was the UK would unleash Covid on the world. But infection rates are going down. This is a hopeful sign: vaccinate over 80% of the population and get back to living without Covid causing mayhem. Fingers crossed things go well in the UK.

I think you should relate those figures to [member=54]shawny[/member]‍ , the UK's result is supporting proof that vaccination helps reduce infections and reduce transmission.

[Mav]

The CDC is concerned that vaccinated people infected with Covid are as infectious as unvaccinated people who are infected. Studies suggest that (of course, more work needs to be done). That's why the CDC changed its advice to require masks indoors and out regardless of vaccination status.

However, if vaccines prevent a good percentage of recipients from getting Covid, then that reduces the rate of infection in the population. 

[LP]

The CDC is concerned that vaccinated people infected with Covid are as infectious as unvaccinated people who are infected. Studies suggest that (of course, more work needs to be done). That's why the CDC changed its advice to require masks indoors and out regardless of vaccination status.

However, if vaccines prevent a good percentage of recipients from getting Covid, then that reduces the rate of infection in the population.

I think the problem is that public compliance is often taken for granted, but public compliance rarely is ever matches the guidelines. The UK found this out when they did some large scale studies of sporting events, public compliance with the rules was apparently below 15%, and the biggest problem was exposed to be public behaviour around the events not in the venue. The homes, pubs and clubs people gathered at before or after. I suspect the same will apply with office workers on the morning coffee run or post work socialising!

The fundamental is that for compliant behaviour the vaccines seem to reduce both infection and transmission, but if people change their behaviour too radically the level of exposure changes and the figures then vary. I heard a couple of experts on podcasts a few weeks back who predicted this "over-correction" in public behaviour would cause a spike in the UK that should quickly settle.

Ideally the correct public path is cautious freedom, not unlimited celebration!

I suppose the worry is that being vaccinated encourages people to slack off and not to follow the rules that keep unvaccinated people safe.

[Mav]

CNN reporting an internal CDC document warns Delta infections are likely more severe and Delta is spread as easily as chickenpox. Further, there are about 35,000 breakthrough infections per week in the US.

The good news in the report: vaccines are still 90% effective in preventing hospitalisation or death (a 25-fold reduction). The rate of breakthrough infections is minute given there are 75 million vaccinated people in the US (0.046%).

[LP]

CNN reporting an internal CDC document warns Delta infections are likely more severe and Delta is spread as easily as chickenpox.

It's hard to acknowledge that post when the only option is a "Like" button! 

[Mav]

Apparently, the CDC report actually suggests vaccines are 80% effective rather than 90%; in other words, there’s a bit of a dip, particularly with older and immuno-suppressed people. The R0  is reportedly between 5 and 9 whereas the original R0 was between 2 and 3.