CV and mad panic behaviour

[LP]

Social media and media carry on about the risk of dying directly from an adverse reaction to a vaccination.

I came across an interesting stat today. If you give one million people injections between 200 and 500 people get a staphylococcus infection, about 10% of those getting infections are then at risk of dying. The figures are similar for sepsis, but statistically I do not know how they combine, and it won't be simple addition. Interestingly, the stat doesn't change even if you inject nothing at all, if it's just a needle stick  injury with no substance issued, it's a bit like the old rose thorn story!

[capcom]

The UK deaths continue but nowhere close to the numbers where they were 6 / 9 months back.

They've done a great job.  Similar to some European countries (Italy / France / Germany)
into bringing the numbers down.

Poland were a major exception but even they seem to be on top of it now. 

Pretty damned resilient.  I never look at simply Terra Australis.  I look at the world. 

[LP]

The UK deaths continue but nowhere close to the numbers where they were 6 / 9 months back.

Not many COVID-19 deaths coming from vaccinated individuals over the last few months, just a handful that in number which falls within the efficacy claims. The vaccines help many, but they won't help everyone!

[Thryleon]

I know that the data is the data, but the data is somewhat detached from the human experience and we can lose sight of the forest from the trees.

I just got told a story, about a mum aged 40 who had a severe reaction to AZ, where she was on an induced coma in ICU for 3 weeks as a result to bleeding on the brain. 

She is a damned if you do and damned if you don't story as she is also a thyroid cancer sufferer which would make her a high risk to COVID as well.

Thing is, 40 year old, 2 daughters, and is now going to spend the better part of the next 12 months learning to walk, talk and feed herself.

This is the human side to this snakes and ladders coin flip stuff about vaccines, and rightly or wrongly (correlation vs causation is not mine to judge) but 10 days out from the AZ vaccine with constant headaches is a tell that maybe the two are linked, but that's not my expert judgement, nor the point of this post.

Her name is Alyssa.  Her story has been published to a facebook page called Verde Baby.  If its not a true story, then its despicable.  If it is a true story, then it goes back to why some healthy skepticism isn't a problem, and why perhaps when we post on social media about data, numbers, strategy and what not, it all gets a bit lost in the story of the right thing is not necessarily the right thing for everyone.

IF AZ is capable of doing this to a 40 year old then we need to rethink the strategy.  Sure some people are going to say its 1 in how many, but thats one too many via a deliberate strategy for mine.  The risk profile cant be that high, and imagine this lady doesnt pull through, and then her daughters are left without a mother?  COVID may not have actually done that to her (it might have but we cant know any different now).

[sandsmere]

I know that the data is the data, but the data is somewhat detached from the human experience and we can lose sight of the forest from the trees.

I just got told a story, about a mum aged 40 who had a severe reaction to AZ, where she was on an induced coma in ICU for 3 weeks as a result to bleeding on the brain. 

She is a damned if you do and damned if you don't story as she is also a thyroid cancer sufferer which would make her a high risk to COVID as well.

Thing is, 40 year old, 2 daughters, and is now going to spend the better part of the next 12 months learning to walk, talk and feed herself.

This is the human side to this snakes and ladders coin flip stuff about vaccines, and rightly or wrongly (correlation vs causation is not mine to judge) but 10 days out from the AZ vaccine with constant headaches is a tell that maybe the two are linked, but that's not my expert judgement, nor the point of this post.

Her name is Alyssa.  Her story has been published to a facebook page called Verde Baby.  If its not a true story, then its despicable.  If it is a true story, then it goes back to why some healthy skepticism isn't a problem, and why perhaps when we post on social media about data, numbers, strategy and what not, it all gets a bit lost in the story of the right thing is not necessarily the right thing for everyone.

IF AZ is capable of doing this to a 40 year old then we need to rethink the strategy.  Sure some people are going to say its 1 in how many, but thats one too many via a deliberate strategy for mine.  The risk profile cant be that high, and imagine this lady doesnt pull through, and then her daughters are left without a mother?  COVID may not have actually done that to her (it might have but we cant know any different now).

Very sad story regarding that lady Thry.

I am due to have the second jab next Tuesday.
I saw my GP last week and asked him some questions about vaccine ( astra zenica ).
He asked me if I drove a car. I said yes and he said that every time I use the car I am around 3000 times more likely to
have a driving accident  than I am having a problem with AZ.

Interisting .

[Mav]

Thryleon, watch out for Facebook and other Social Media “news”. There was a doco about the anti-vaxxers on SBS last night. That detailed how they co-opted he death of a baby to promote their industry. The mother had been sleeping with the baby regularly until she noted it had stopped breathing. Obviously, it would have been tough for the mother to accept a conclusion that her baby had died of SIDS related to co-sleeping. But the anti-vaxxers rode to her rescue, saying the MMR vaccine caused her baby’s death. The mother found solace in her baby becoming the poster child for the anti-vaxxer movement/industry.

Anti-vaxxers are dab hands at using Facebook to run scare campaigns.

[Mav]

Here’s an article about such campaigns:
How anti-vaxxers target grieving moms and turn them into crusaders against vaccines, NBC.

[LP]

IF AZ is capable of doing this to a 40 year old then we need to rethink the strategy.

Is it though, or is the main problem taking a social media post on face value?

Not wanting to diminish real world side-effects, it seems somewhat arbitrary how they are allocated and goes along political lines as some suggest, the biggest tell is the absence of claims from certain segments which the statistics suggest are equal, some are just not covered by the media / social media.

In the USA under the VAERS system, they uncovered a bunch of infant deaths attributed to Sars-CoV-2 vaccinations, of course infants do not get such vaccinations but that is the problem with voluntary reporting, it's hijacked by bogus content just like social media. These reports are analogous to claiming 5G killed my baby, and in effect they are either a prelude to a spurious compensation claim or the sign of a significantly damaged psyche.

Some humans are just awful awful entities whether it is deliberate or accidental!

The Australian numbers for vaccinations of AZ are as follows, as reported by the head of the AMA;

Australian Medical Association President Dr Omar Khorshid said AstraZeneca was a safe vaccine.

“No scientists that I’ve heard has said that AstraZeneca is a dangerous vaccine, because, yes, there are serious risks, but they’re one in 40,000. And the death rate [from clotting] in Australia is less than one in two million,” he said.

“The reason [ATAGI changed the advice] is because the benefit side of the equation changes. This idea that there’s so much more risk in vaccinating young people is just not true.”

So in Australia it's 0.5 deaths per million from attributable vaccine side-effects, even better than the UK!

Social media hysteria put into overdrive by a tricky and selective reporting from the professional media.

[Thryleon]

Thryleon, watch out for Facebook and other Social Media “news”. There was a doco about the anti-vaxxers on SBS last night. That detailed how they co-opted he death of a baby to promote their industry. The mother had been sleeping with the baby regularly until she noted it had stopped breathing. Obviously, it would have been tough for the mother to accept a conclusion that her baby had died of SIDS related to co-sleeping. But the anti-vaxxers rode to her rescue, saying the MMR vaccine caused her baby’s death. The mother found solace in her baby becoming the poster child for the anti-vaxxer movement/industry.

Anti-vaxxers are dab hands at using Facebook to run scare campaigns.

When they specifically state northern NSW, John Hunter Hospital, and then post the story about part 1 and 2 on facebook of what happens to Alyssa, I am likely to believe the story.  This wasnt a click bait story.  A friend from high school whom I know personally shared this account, and knows this person through small business largely conducted online.

I am posting this, because like LP is stating about numbers, the statistics show that SOMEONE eventually is a statistic, and that even though the statistic hasn't shown a death, given this lady is a cancer sufferer, will it even show a reaction?  Data is data.  "It doesnt lie" but people can paint whatever story they wish, if the agenda is great enough (such as an Australian Government that has sunk a lot of money in AZ and opted against something different).

If this were a story from the United States, I would be more inclined to simply ignore the story but generally in Australia, this is unusual to see.  Sure, it might be "sponsored" and the timing is significant (NSW going into lockdown as recently as last week and a likely surge in vaccinations) but Im not here to make a judgement about that.

Most of the voices against COVID state that the numbers and data show (same logic applied differently) that Covid only kills the old and the vulnerable.  The Vaccine seems similarly poised to only have an adverse reaction to the vulnerable, and the majority will be fine.  (Note same logic and that irony is not lost on me).

The main difference between them is that one is a deliberate administration.  Covid might not infect everyone.  The Vaccine if administered will cause this reaction.  The numbers ignore this fact.  Its a qualifying statement that is uncomfortable.

[Thryleon]

Is it though, or is the main problem taking a social media post on face value?

Not wanting to diminish real world side-effects, it seems somewhat arbitrary how they are allocated and goes along political lines as some suggest, the biggest tell is the absence of claims from certain segments which the statistics suggest are equal, some are just not covered by the media / social media.

In the USA under the VAERS system, they uncovered a bunch of infant deaths attributed to Sars-CoV-2 vaccinations, of course infants do not get such vaccinations but that is the problem with voluntary reporting, it's hijacked by bogus content just like social media. These reports are analogous to claiming 5G killed my baby, and in effect they are either a prelude to a spurious compensation claim or the sign of a significantly damaged psyche.

Some humans are just awful awful entities whether it is deliberate or accidental!

The Australian numbers for vaccinations of AZ are as follows, as reported by the head of the AMA;So in Australia it's 0.5 deaths per million from attributable vaccine side-effects, even better than the UK!

Social media hysteria put into overdrive by a tricky and selective reporting from the professional media.

Possibly true.

I am not the sole source of knowledge on all things Vaccines, and dont pretend to be.

The hardest part, is pulling apart the various half truths, mis truths and qualifiying arguments to use the statistics.  Like you said the raw data doesnt lie, but if recorded differently, it can tell a different story.