CV and mad panic behaviour

[LP]

All I know is that it's just normal business in those areas, lockdown always reduces road and workplace accidents as you would expect.
Re: Contact tracing... NSW use trained health care staff to supervise and conduct strategy with most of their tracing teams.As you would expect when there is a measles outbreak those cases are traced and hence you need a level of health care experience when questioning and asking about symptoms etc. NSW have resourced these areas better and hence have the better system.
Victoria cut funding a while back and don't have enough trained health care staff.When the pandemic hit we were under manned and couldn't cope,paying peanuts means monkeys and the Vic Government have dropped the ball on contact tracing with its under resourcing.

Yes, but how does this affect the current situation?

We had a quarantine leak in SA that put the boots into Victoria, with a delivery driver spending 12 days traipsing around Metro-Melbourne and some Vic regional areas while infectious. He could have come from NSW, WA, Qld, the origin is irrelevant, and the 12 days before tracing started was critical.

But how do you trace and track before the event, the only way to do that is with a check-in compliant public and here in Vic we do not have that, we have dissenters instead and those targeting compliant small business owners with social media vitriol. ............. We are Victoria!

[Thryleon]

[member=105]Thryleon[/member]‍ isn't that a confusion of cause and effect, the observation must fit the order of real world events?

I hear a lot of people hurting, but it's not easy to say who must pay the price for this, who volunteers, it seems 'the they' always want to blame the other.

But just as "We are Carlton", ............... "We are Melbourne" and "We are Australia", our current circumstance is a compounding of Federal, State and Social issues.

I know what you are saying, but follow the below logic:



IF this virus is the threat it is.

AND we have a lot of people being not compliant with masks, gathering in spite of lockdowns, no check ins at contact tracing etc.

THEN we should have a bunch of cases that are unaccounted for in contact tracing, and a lot more COVID around in the case of a pandemic and an infectious disease (although this can be explained away by people not being tested). 

THEREFORE - Its only a matter of time until a phantom case tests positive ADMITTED IN HOSPITAL because they have contracted COVID and got sick.


IF they aren't sick, and they are positive, and they don't spread this to anyone that ends up sick or in hospital is this threat worth worrying about really?

They are all valid observations, that seem to just be ignored for the most part.

The bit I have bolded here is the one that is a real head scratcher to me. 

[LP]

I know what you are saying, but follow the below logic:

IF this virus is the threat it is.

AND we have a lot of people being not compliant with masks, gathering in spite of lockdowns, no check ins at contact tracing etc.

THEN we should have a bunch of cases that are unaccounted for in contact tracing, and a lot more COVID around in the case of a pandemic and an infectious disease (although this can be explained away by people not being tested). 

THEREFORE - Its only a matter of time until a phantom case tests positive ADMITTED IN HOSPITAL because they have contracted COVID and got sick.


IF they aren't sick, and they are positive, and they don't spread this to anyone that ends up sick or in hospital is this threat worth worrying about really?

They are all valid observations, that seem to just be ignored for the most part.

The bit I have bolded here is the one that is a real head scratcher to me.

I'm not sure it is quite valid, I think the part missing from that logic is the delay between being exposed and becoming infectious, an infected person is not instantaneously infectious.

The purpose of contract tracing to isolate individuals before they become infectious, this time around that seems to be working not failing as some claim. And we have cases of community transmission traced and confirmed. Unaccounted for cases could well be a failing of contract tracing, or deliberate non-compliance, not necessarily related to the original source or method of transmission.

I see this as a different debate to discussing lockdown. Lockdown is more about compliance and societal behaviour, once cases are identified and isolated if the public was truly complaint we might not need lockdown at all. In that regard purpose of lockdown is to limit the rate of spread so that contract tracing has time to do it's work.

Finally, let's not write off the effects of vaccinations and anti-virals, which all combine to deliver a different R[sub]0[/sub]. As that situation improves, it must surely have an impact diminishing the need for lockdown, I'd suggest the surge in vaccinations is a growing public awareness of that fact. The dissenting anti-vaxx movement if followed would result in the exact opposite.

[Mav]

The problem is lag time. IIRC, the 60 & 70 year olds did ultimately seek medical assistance, with the latter placed on a ventilator. But they did so reluctantly after battling Covid for close to 2 weeks (and travelling around Melbourne like tourists).

[Thryleon]

I'm not sure it is quite valid, I think the part missing from that logic is the delay between being exposed and becoming infectious, an infected person is not instantaneously infectious.

The purpose of contract tracing to isolate individuals before they become infectious, this time around that seems to be working not failing as some claim. And we have cases of community transmission traced and confirmed. Unaccounted for cases could well be a failing of contract tracing, or deliberate non-compliance, not necessarily related to the original source or method of transmission.

I see this as a different debate to discussing lockdown. Lockdown is more about compliance and societal behaviour, once cases are identified and isolated if the public was truly complaint we might not need lockdown at all. In that regard purpose of lockdown is to limit the rate of spread so that contract tracing has time to do it's work.

Finally, let's not write off the effects of vaccinations and anti-virals, which all combine to deliver a different R[sub]0[/sub]. As that situation improves, it must surely have an impact diminishing the need for lockdown, I'd suggest the surge in vaccinations is a growing public awareness of that fact. The dissenting anti-vaxx movement if followed would result in the exact opposite.

Dissenters would never get tested though.  They would spread it and it would only become apparent once someone ended up in hospital.

This outcome should have happened already really.

[LP]

The problem is lag time. IIRC, the 60 & 70 year olds did ultimately seek medical assistance, with the latter placed on a ventilator. But they did so reluctantly after battling Covid for close to 2 weeks (and travelling around Melbourne like tourists).

This highlights the problem with early stages of COVID-19 illness, it can present like a benign cold or allergy, and then by the time secondary effects start to kick in and people are forced to present at hospital it can be very very serious indeed, and maybe too late for some!

[LP]

Dissenters would never get tested though.  They would spread it and it would only become apparent once someone ended up in hospital.

This outcome should have happened already really.

It did, that is exactly what happened as [member=122]Mav[/member] points out, although in the current case they weren't deliberate dissenters just people oblivious to their illness!

Not wanting to persecute anybody, if they had followed the "Get Tested" mantra, instead of being indifferent, in denial or complacent, we might not be in lockdown now!

An associate pointed out another interesting COVID-19 effect which must have an impact. As a casual inner city observer he's noted from working in a inner city the tendency to avoid people who seem ill or unwell, people who sneeze or cough, they are being given a very wide birth by many, this must have some limiting effect.

[Thryleon]

It did Thry, that is exactly what happened!

When?  I missed that part.  Was that last year?  Shouldn't the first sign on news have been a man tests positive in hospital?.

[LP]

When?  I missed that part.  Was that last year?  Shouldn't the first sign on news have been a man tests positive in hospital?.

Well historically the very first case as a man returned from Wuhan and presenting as ill before testing positive in Monash Medical Center. Long before Vic was in lockdown, long before the boats or planes came home.

@Mav is talking about this current outbreak.

[Thryleon]

[member=153]LP[/member] I am talking now.

If people are thumbing their noses at the outbreak like you asserted earlier, we should see this happening frequently amongst the dissenters to use your own language.