CV and mad panic behaviour

[kruddler]

We didn't listen? Is that you Dan?

As a collective? Did we?

I know i've done my part, but i know not everyone else has.

You want him to name the individuals? Or is this a 'team game'.

[kruddler]

Leaders DO NOT do that, they lead, they take charge, they do what they know is in the public's best interest... and you never trust the public at large -- plenty of ripper folks but enough c0ckheads to fck it up for everyone else. NZ didn't hope, or pray, or wait - bang, both times Jacinda was onto it regardless of what people thought... and this a month out from elections - she risked being unpopular but knew what was best for the population and fckn jumped on it.

If Dan holds firm on this, risks being unpopular... well, better late than never but he will still cop flack for his slow response and the subsequent costs.

See, you are in the lockdown camp.
You are in the minority....i think.

Most others say he has gone too hard on lockdown.

In the end, its all just educated guesswork which we are learning on the fly.

He can't win.

[madbluboy]

As a collective? Did we?

I know i've done my part, but i know not everyone else has.

You want him to name the individuals? Or is this a 'team game'.

I did my part like 99% of Victorians. Loonies will be loonies, you can't control them. If we put the same effort into the quarantine (You know the people who had the virus) as they did for "Freedom Day" we wouldn't be in lockdown.

[Lods]

Looking at his 'road-map' from a distance I think his strategy might be to present a worst case set of standards.
He can then soften the dates and bring them forward to a grateful state.

Politically that's better than releasing too soon and actually have to keep to or tighten restrictions down the track.
Make no mistakes, while the health considerations are still the most important element....'politics' is now a major player and will become increasingly so.

And pollies we've praised will be shown to be the old self-serving mob they've always been.

[Thryleon]

Right from the get-go of the lockdowns I was really impressed with Dan, ScoMo and other States... not so much NSW which fckd up the whole Ruby Princess thing but they quickly learned from it.

When the first stage 4 was relaxed things looked pretty good. Oz (and the Kiwis) was the envy of the world.

Then around 90% of international returns were funneled through Melbourne. And so the sh1t show commenced... our Ruby Princess (hotel quarantines) ended up being far worse than NSW and much worse in handling. AND the Grand Canyon issues in Aged Care burst forth.

What really, really surprised me -- and I'm still none the wiser why -- was that Dan didn't leap on escalating numbers the 2nd time like he did the first time. He sat on his hands for some inexplicable reason and waited... and waited... and waited until we got into the 600s re daily new cases - the horse had bolted and was having a ball, quarantining had failing and our elderly were being kicked in the guts.

Incompetent quarantining was a major contributor. Did we not learn from the NSW Ruby Princess experience? Who was responsible for overseeing hotel quarantining? Aged Care? Who was the accountable one, the one in command, boots on the ground at the coal face assessing the every detail and on top of it all?

Now Vic officials and the ADF are involved in Sydney in teaching we Vics how to trace efficiently. Apparently our tracing was sub standard... how come? Who is responsible for such a dreadful error that has literally cost lives, business, employment, mental health and the state's economy - big time.

Seems we're finally reining in the figures and Stage 3 is in sight. And hopefully stage 2 by Christmas and the entire nation on just about the same page with borders open.

Dan commented that the buck stops with him and he is ultimately responsible. So he has to root out those accountable for the huge stuff ups and give them the flick, and if that, in fact means himself... so be it.

However, the Feds could and should have done more. It started out all cozy with a bromance between Dan and ScoMo but now it has degenerated into a political stoush. That's cr@p and cheap and plain opportunistic and does not serve the community.

In the future I really believe that the Federal Govt should take command of a pandemic and assign the states to administering and implementing the strategy with Fed help (which means ADF/BIOhaz teams running the show).

The upside of all this -- bearing in mind we were warned of this years ago and did fck all -- there will be lessons learned and a national strategy in place to leap on any such eventuality in the future... with a nationally co-ordinated approach - that means, ScoMO, take fckn charge knackers, step up to the plate. AND there must be a national standard put in place for security company's PLUS much, much, much more attention to protecting our vulnerable/aged - get those sleazy profiteers out of Aged Care.

Slight correction baggers.  I think you'll find our worst days of positive cases happened after we started locking down again.

[Thryleon]

It matters a lot - Cedar Meats, hotel quarantine, f... ups in contract tracing = incompetent.

A blind monkey throwing darts at a board would get more things right.

Actually it doesn't.  The issue is so far behind us, it doesn't matter anymore.

[LP]

I notice the Oxford Vaccine has been pout on hold after a serious allergic reaction or side-effect suffered by a trial participant. These sorts of delays usually add months, and if not understood it can lead to a trial being cancelled, it'll be interesting to see what sort of impact it has in the current urgent environment.

This is typical, and why it is very wise to be nervous or sceptical of rushed solutions.

[PaulP]

I notice the Oxford Vaccine has been pout on hold after a serious allergic reaction or side-effect suffered by a trial participant. These sorts of delays usually add months, and it if not understood it can lead to a trial being cancelled, it'll be interesting to see what sort of impact it has in the current urgent environment.

This is typical, and why it is very wise to be nervous or sceptical of rushed solutions.

So, so true. Beware the Trump magic vaccine, coming to you direct from the Nick Riviera centre for infectious disease.

[Thryleon]

So, so true. Beware the Trump magic vaccine, coming to you direct from the Nick Riviera centre for infectious disease.

Id be wary of any vaccine at the moment.  Without knowing a lot about vaccines, or without being an expert on infectious diseases its unfathomable to me, that we would green light a vaccine for 25 million people on the current data.  our infection rate is low.  The cure could cause more issues than the disease.

I notice the Oxford Vaccine has been pout on hold after a serious allergic reaction or side-effect suffered by a trial participant. These sorts of delays usually add months, and if not understood it can lead to a trial being cancelled, it'll be interesting to see what sort of impact it has in the current urgent environment.

This is typical, and why it is very wise to be nervous or sceptical of rushed solutions.

You know, to quote trump, this might just be fake news?

I.e.  they release a "set back" publically.  Then when they announce that its a false alarm, its supposed to instill confidence that the appropriate checks and balances are being followed.

Yet:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/09/08/astr...n-the-u-k/

In a follow-up statement, AstraZeneca said it initiated the study hold. The nature of the adverse reaction and when it happened were not immediately known, though the participant is expected to recover, according to an individual familiar with the matter.

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The spokesperson described the pause as “a routine action which has to happen whenever there is a potentially unexplained illness in one of the trials, while it is investigated, ensuring we maintain the integrity of the trials.” The spokesperson also said that the company is “working to expedite the review of the single event to minimize any potential impact on the trial timeline.”

An individual familiar with the development said researchers had been told the hold was placed on the trial out of “an abundance of caution.” A second individual familiar with the matter, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said the finding is having an impact on other AstraZeneca vaccine trials underway — as well as on the clinical trials being conducted by other vaccine manufacturers.

[mateinone]

I have been tracking this virus here and globally since  March and I can tell you this.
There was absolutely no way that Dan and his team should have failed to realise what was going to happen.
They were using poor measurements for a start.
I haven't posted here for a long time and I have littered my FB with stat after stat about this virus, to the stage where it is all I ever post about, so I don't want to do the same thing here

But I have serious questions in the way the government has handled this and also how they refuse to provide any meaningful answers when questioned on it.

I heard today (and it is in the road map) that they won't removed restrictions even if they hit targets before the dates mentioned as time is a factor, well I would like to know exactly what sort of factor he means here. His timeline of 14 days is already more than in reasonably required to understand where this virus is at and what the future holds of the coming 2-4 weeks, so what exactly is time above this 14 day period? Either the number is a save number to ease restrictions or it is not.

I am very firmly in the camp that believes we need restrictions and right now need the lockdown. I thought it back in March, I thought it in June etc, so I believe that we should be in the lockdown we are in, but the pathway out... This is a huge crock and not only that, but I think there are severe failings in the modelling used and certainly it sits a fair way outside my own modelling and other modelling I have seen.

But.. on Dan...
If we have to be in stage 4 with 50 cases a day over 14 days (and I think 7 - 10 is more appropriate when measuring) when going down, then surely at around 50 cases per day over the averaging period (and in this case 14 is almost criminally unresponsive when a virus is ascending), then I would like to know why the government didn't act.. and I don't buy that they didn't want to risk the rage of the people, because it was highly predictable where the numbers were going to end up.

Here are just a simple table of stats (and it is even worse when you look at 7 day averages)

Average New Cases per day over previous 14 days.
Jul 04:  50.29
Jul 10: 108.79
Jul 14: 154.36
Jul 17: 200.86
Jul 21: 266.79
July 23 - Mandatory Masks - Melbourne & Mitcham Shire
Jul 25: 307.57
Jul 29: 366.50
Aug 01: 408.50
Aug 02 Stage 4 Melbourne lockdown.

So let's say Dan didn't thinkn we needed harsh lockdowns at 50.. or 100 or 150.. I mean the reality is, they had plenty of time to introduce them and the people of Melbourne are paying a huge price for this.
The impact on the mental health (forget suicides as a figure, look at the people who are developing other mental health issues that could take months or years to recover from)
The impact on those not being tested for possible terminal illnesses etc
The impact on the economy
The impact on students

And now the impact where the community is being punished for longer than it should be, because Dan didn't act.
If Dan had implemented these policies even once we hit 200, the lockdown would not have lasted longer than 6 weeks.
If he implemented at 100, then many hundreds of lives would have been saved.
Even if he implemented stage 3 restrictions sooner, all evidence statistically showed that the numbers were significantly reduced in stage 3, then he would have been able to accurately model our way out of this virus.
By not doing that, he is gun shy and it is insane.
Mandatory masks and stage 3 restrictions should be implemented already by the end of this month.
On October 1, at least with my forecasts suggest that the numbers at that time will be at a level that might be a little too high for stage 2 restrictions, but should be comfortably manageable for stage 3 (with mandatory masks).
In late September or early October, Metro Melbourne should be between 5-15 average cases a day (7 day averaging period) and it is really hard to justify why they can't be in a similar situation to region Victoria, with the requirements of masks still.

Just 2 last things.
1) People are sick of being blamed, but there is almost certainly a reason why the age demographics have the 20-29 age bracket as having the most infections, because they really are more likely to be breaking the rules and so more likely to be spreading it. So there is some truth in the public needing to wear part of the blame for the current situation
2) What are the triggers that will move Victoria back into heaving restrictions once they are eased? Will Dan Andrews fiddle whilst Victoria burns again, or will there be clearly defined cases numbers that are triggered to reintroduce restrictions and lockdowns?


Anyway in the meantime, I hope everyone is staying safe, sticking to the plan and working to help everyone get out of the  lockdowns, then I hope Dan Andrews actually acts in a transparent and logical way and starts to give you all back at least a semblance of your lives in early October.