CV and mad panic behaviour

[kruddler]

FWIW....
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/p...9/12601632?

The number of suicide deaths in Victoria during the coronavirus pandemic has not risen, according to data from the Coroners Court of Victoria.

State Coroner Judge John Cain says the court plans to release monthly suicide data to open up the conversation about suicide prevention.

[LP]

[member=153]LP[/member]....
So why is it typical for R0 to drop? Surely its a constant?

True, the R[sub]0[/sub] is effectively a constant for any one strain of virus, but it has to be measured first.

In the early stages the uncertainty displayed in the error bars on a scientific graph will be huge, it might be R[sub]0[/sub] = 3.0 ± 2.0, the uncertainty diminishes greatly once the sample size is big enough, when a lot of measuring has been completed! Now it might be R[sub]0[/sub] = 0.8 ± 0.2.

Also not to forget, SARS.CoV-2 today 27th August 2020 is not the same as SARS-CoV-2 three months back, there are more strains today, with some less virulent and some more virulent. Some old strains have vanished, other new ones have appeared. Many of the accumulated numbers do not differentiate.

If anybody wants a read, there is a very nice plain language PDF linked here, https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/...tralia.pdf
A smaller clipping is attached below.

[Baggers]

Perhaps, above all things, this pandemic has demonstrated how brittle our health networks are - physical and mental health. How under resourced they are. Perhaps like the military we really should have 'reserves' of medical folks / mental health professionals and physical locations ready to handle major / sudden increases.

Most of us are fully aware that our mental health resources are under-funded to an embarrassing level and like our hospitals the existing levels are already inadequate and vulnerable so when a pandemic comes along they're simply fckd (a very effective technical medical term  ;D ). And we appreciate that with systems already stretched they too easily fold hence doing everything to 'flatten' curves of admission to minimize a horrible potential that could have been avoided in the first place... with vision, common sense and health care priority.

3 Leos made an extremely important point, one based on fact and one incredibly relevant - when the inadequate system is suddenly stretched by a huge increase in admissions what happens to other urgent medical situations - the treatments 3 Leos mentioned?

I would add, who else gets pushed a little down the line? Who ends up just neglected enough to jeopardize their health further? Who replaces the front line medical folks who get the pandemic? How many 'elective surgeries' are going to become emergencies because of delays stretching to months?

And to pick up on the good points The Flying Lad from 77 made, and perhaps stretch them a little further - I wonder what kinds of results we would get in a bad influenza season, call it Satan Flu for dramatic effect, and test squillions of folks? Are we likely to come up with similar figures to C-19 - in pure numbers and fatality rates and stresses to existing medical resources?

(Just to extend upon the mental health aspect re suicides owing to lockdown - it's a reality and a tragedy, however, if our mental health departments and institutions were far better funded from the get go these folks would likely have the support they need to get through a lockdown).

[flyboy77]

When you are talking about the gradient increasing, surely you mean decreasing?

The gradient has decreased since stage 3, masks and with lag, stage 4 too. Perhaps not as much as you'd hope, but i said that had to do with the differences between stage 3 and 4 being minimal.

Stage 2->Stage 3 took 1 million cars off the road.
Stage 3->Stage 4 took 250k off the road.

We can not expect to see the same drop off between stages because the expected result is not the same. Its not a linear correlation.

As for the 100's of lives Dan has 'caused' from suicide and what not.....long bow there. We could do nothing like the US and cost PLENTY more than that via Covid.

If you want to accuse Dan of anything its being overly cautious.
Given the alternative, i think its acceptable.

Yes, I thought you'd pick up the incorrect gradient comment, sure it's a negative slope blah, blah but you know full well what I meant, just couldn't help yourself.

The rest of your commentary is nothing but emotional BS.

The drop off - there is none. Invalid comment sorry.

Cars on roads stat? You're running with that? Smoked a number tonight?

Accusing Dan.

He's hung himself. Doubt he'll be in Parliament by Christmas.

You're another with this Armageddon alternative logic. Lose it, it's unscientific.

[flyboy77]

Perhaps, above all things, this pandemic has demonstrated how brittle our health networks are - physical and mental health. How under resourced they are. Perhaps like the military we really should have 'reserves' of medical folks / mental health professionals and physical locations ready to handle major / sudden increases.

Most of us are fully aware that our mental health resources are under-funded to an embarrassing level and like our hospitals the existing levels are already inadequate and vulnerable so when a pandemic comes along they're simply fckd (a very effective technical medical term  ;D ). And we appreciate that with systems already stretched they too easily fold hence doing everything to 'flatten' curves of admission to minimize a horrible potential that could have been avoided in the first place... with vision, common sense and health care priority.

3 Leos made an extremely important point, one based on fact and one incredibly relevant - when the inadequate system is suddenly stretched by a huge increase in admissions what happens to other urgent medical situations - the treatments 3 Leos mentioned?

I would add, who else gets pushed a little down the line? Who ends up just neglected enough to jeopardize their health further? Who replaces the front line medical folks who get the pandemic? How many 'elective surgeries' are going to become emergencies because of delays stretching to months?

And to pick up on the good points The Flying Lad from 77 made, and perhaps stretch them a little further - I wonder what kinds of results we would get in a bad influenza season, call it Satan Flu for dramatic effect, and test squillions of folks? Are we likely to come up with similar figures to C-19 - in pure numbers and fatality rates and stresses to existing medical resources?

(Just to extend upon the mental health aspect re suicides owing to lockdown - it's a reality and a tragedy, however, if our mental health departments and institutions were far better funded from the get go these folks would likely have the support they need to get through a lockdown).

This, even the way it has manifested (as a small fart), was a black swan.

During this second wave, which has well peaked, 45/1400 odd ICU beds were used.....

It doesn't even rank in the top 20 causes of death in Australia this year.

What planet are so many living on.

[flyboy77]

FWIW....
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/p...9/12601632?

Exactly. It's how they know circa 100% of the current 'infections' (such a wanky word) source from Dan's HQ disaster.

[flyboy77]

FWIW....
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/p...9/12601632?

No one believes that.

Indeed, it flies in the face of what Cain said not long ago - i'll try and find a reference.

[kruddler]

Yes, I thought you'd pick up the incorrect gradient comment, sure it's a negative slope blah, blah but you know full well what I meant, just couldn't help yourself.

The rest of your commentary is nothing but emotional BS.

The drop off - there is none. Invalid comment sorry.

Cars on roads stat? You're running with that? Smoked a number tonight?

Accusing Dan.

He's hung himself. Doubt he'll be in Parliament by Christmas.

You're another with this Armageddon alternative logic. Lose it, it's unscientific.

Couldn't help myself??

I'm trying to make sense of your ramblings.
If you are confusing up with down, then what hope do i have finding the logic in your posts?

Cars on road stats, is an example of the effect on what the difference between stages should reflect in the numbers.
Which compared to what you used......ie nothing....is not worth poo-pooing.

No drop off? So the numbers are not going down?? OK. No SIGNIFICANT drop off, perhaps, but it only takes a new breakout to stop that....and given the number of people blatantly flaunting the rules, i'm not surprised.

You're another with this Armageddon alternative logic. Lose it, it's unscientific.

My armageddon logic? I am nothing if not logical.
As i said, if you want to accuse Dan of anything, its being overly cautious.
The armageddon alternative you snigger at.....well ask the italians about taking this thing too lightly.

No one believes that.

How can anyone argue with such a well thought out and articulated scientific rebuttal?!

You have an issue with Dan, so be it, don't twist facts, and ignore others to suit that argument.....and then question other peoples logic.

[flyboy77]

Couldn't help myself??

I'm trying to make sense of your ramblings.
If you are confusing up with down, then what hope do i have finding the logic in your posts?

Cars on road stats, is an example of the effect on what the difference between stages should reflect in the numbers.
Which compared to what you used......ie nothing....is not worth poo-pooing.

No drop off? So the numbers are not going down?? OK. No SIGNIFICANT drop off, perhaps, but it only takes a new breakout to stop that....and given the number of people blatantly flaunting the rules, i'm not surprised.
My armageddon logic? I am nothing if not logical.
As i said, if you want to accuse Dan of anything, its being overly cautious.
The armageddon alternative you snigger at.....well ask the italians about taking this thing too lightly.

How can anyone argue with such a well thought out and articulated scientific rebuttal?!

You have an issue with Dan, so be it, don't twist facts, and ignore others to suit that argument.....and then question other peoples logic.

Rah, rah,

It goes back to the data, the chart. Undeniable stuff.

You can't get your head around it?

ok.

Stick to supporting the Blues.

You're an electrical engineer right?

I expected more sorry.

[flyboy77]

ps Kruddler.

At least this is making you think.

And you know it.