CV and mad panic behaviour

[flyboy77]

And hey presto, here it comes:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/202...oronavirus

[Jack Burton]

Quote me your source Jack...re May/June. That is illogical.

The incubation period (99%) anyway is 14 days or less (median 5 days).

And:

"Even people who develop symptoms are at risk of unwittingly spreading the virus. A study in China suggests that infectiousness starts about 2.5 days before the onset of symptoms, and peaks 15 hours before (medRxiv, doi.org/dqbr).

We know that coughs and sneezes spread the virus, so how is it possible for asymptomatic people to spread the infection?

People with mild or no symptoms can have a very high viral load in their upper respiratory tracts, meaning they can shed the virus through spitting, touching their mouths or noses and then a surface, or possibly talking. Even people who don’t feel ill occasionally cough or sneeze.

Once symptoms develop, a person’s viral load declines steadily, and they become increasingly less infectious. However, people appear to keep shedding the virus for around two weeks after they recover from covid-19, both in their saliva and stools (medRxiv, doi.org/dqbs). This means that even once a person’s symptoms have cleared, it may still be possible to infect other people.

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/223...z6HwUGhmXL

"the start of community spread"? What the f... do you think has been happening in recent weeks?

Why do you think we've been socially isolating?

The data doesn't lie! (short of a random event)

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-we...y-c-761936
"Victorian Health Minister Jenny Mikakos and Chief Health Officer Dr Brett Sutton made the grim announcement on Wednesday."

[Jack Burton]

Flyboy we also need to understand that the current day's data is a week or more behind what is actually happening today. I pay little attention (if any) to the number of new cases every day. This depends on who is getting tested. Now that the numbers of people getting off cruise ships and returning from overseas is declining (and we're FINALLY quarantining them properly like we should have been doing a month ag0), I'm not surprised that the numbers appear to be slowing. But as I said, once community spread kicks off, and it will, the numbers will escalate quickly

[flyboy77]

Different measure - total cases of course will grow for weeks and weeks.

New cases - and more specifically the rate of change in new cases, is the only indicator that tells you where it's going.

Australia, thus far, has done remarkably well all said.

[flyboy77]

Flyboy we also need to understand that the current day's data is a week or more behind what is actually happening today. I pay little attention (if any) to the number of new cases every day. This depends on who is getting tested. Now that the numbers of people getting off cruise ships and returning from overseas is declining (and we're FINALLY quarantining them properly like we should have been doing a month ag0), I'm not surprised that the numbers appear to be slowing. But as I said, once community spread kicks off, and it will, the numbers will escalate quickly

How does "community spread" escalate quickly when most (the greater majority by far) people are isolating - that is wrong.

[Jack Burton]

How does "community spread" escalate quickly when most (the greater majority by far) people are isolating - that is wrong.

Because too many are not isolating, and they then go home and spread it to their families/housemates.

[flyboy77]

we'll see Jack....

I'd say 90% + are doing the right thing.

[LP]

Flyboy we also need to understand that the current day's data is a week or more behind what is actually happening today. I pay little attention (if any) to the number of new cases every day. This depends on who is getting tested. Now that the numbers of people getting off cruise ships and returning from overseas is declining (and we're FINALLY quarantining them properly like we should have been doing a month ag0), I'm not surprised that the numbers appear to be slowing. But as I said, once community spread kicks off, and it will, the numbers will escalate quickly

100% correct, so far we've only had a small number of community spread cases, Flyboy's using the same flawed logic that the USA, Italy and Spain used, and now they are a basket case!

Trump's placed a bet, that his drug companies will arrive at either a cure or prophylactic in time to prevent the case surge his policy triggers. It's the same appalling logic being exhibited by Portsea residents as the asymptotically spread the infection, I wonder where their children and grandchildren are, do you think they have them isolated? The spread this malaise by talking about the "price of the cure is too high" just to save a few lives, yet you know if they were first in the queue for infection a life would be priceless!

If this disease killed kids and babies preferentially over adults, we'd already be walking around in hazmat suits, identifying dissenters as modern day King Herrods and shooting them on sight!

[Jack Burton]

I agree Flyboy, and that's about as good as we could expect I reckon. The other thing to consider in community spread is the numbers of people going to supermarkets, bunnings etc. I think it's inevitable that asymptomatic people will spread viruses around these places and other people will pick them up. I really hope the education about washing hands etc will limit this

[flyboy77]

100% correct, so far we've only had a small number of community spread cases, Flyboy's using the same flawed logic that the USA, Italy and Spain used, and now they are a basket case!

Trump's placed a bet, that his drug companies will arrive at either a cure or prophylactic in time to prevent the case surge his policy triggers. It's the same appalling logic being exhibited by Portsea residents as the asymptotically spread the infection, I wonder where their children and grand children are, do you think they have them isolated?

If this disease killed kids and babies preferentially over adults, we'd already be walking around in hazmat suits, identifying dissenters as modern day King Herrods and shooting them on sight!

What flawed logic is that LP - that is offensive.

I consider we should have shut down sooner and harder....and I'm not saying we slacken off now.

There is no flaw in my logic.