Pre Game Prognostications AFL 2019 Rd 19 Carlton vs Adelaide

[Thryleon]

If Kreuz is not replaced for next year then Phillips will be retained imo. Lobbe would be the one to go.

I'd cut both of them and go to a recycle from somewhere else to be honest.

Neither of them do enough to warranty keeping, and De Koning will go past both of them as our ruck backup for next season.

[tonyo]

I'd cut both of them and go to a recycle from somewhere else to be honest.

Neither of them do enough to warranty keeping, and De Koning will go past both of them as our ruck backup for next season.

De Koning hasn't played a senior game as yet - asking a lot of the young guy to become the one and only understudy.  If Kreuz gets a big injury, we would be in trouble.  Imagine if next year is going ok and then we have to play half or more of the season with no experienced big man.....?

[ElwoodBlues1]

If Kreuz is not replaced for next year then Phillips will be retained imo. Lobbe would be the one to go.

Reckon you are right Cookie....we need a bigger more physical ruckman who can handle the monsters like Witts and the rougher units like Mumford,Lycett etc who
bully our blokes. Philips is an ok ruck but isnt much of a presence on the ground and Lobbe is finished IMO.
I'd keep Philips as backup but look for a bigger physical specimen to compliment Kreuzer and slowly introduce TDK into the lineup vs selected teams..

[kruddler]

I'd cut both of them and go to a recycle from somewhere else to be honest.

Neither of them do enough to warranty keeping, and De Koning will go past both of them as our ruck backup for next season.

Phillips is severely underrated IMO.

He might not be able to hunt the ball like Kreuzer does, but lets face it....who can Nic Nat, Grundy and Gawn aside (the elite).
However, Phillips is a better mark than Kreuzer. I reckon he's a better kick at goal too. 54% vs 45% in Phillips favour.

He's had just as many injuries as Kreuzer has, but has shown he can perform when having an extended run at it.

His ruck craft is very good.

Both Phillips and Kreuzer win 40% of their ruck battles.
However Phillips is better with his taps, 33% are hitouts to advantage.
Compared to Kreuzers 25%

What does that mean in real world terms?
Say your ruckman gets 24 hitouts a game.
Both Phillips and Kreuzer will get their hands on 10 of them first.
But with Phillips 8 of them will go to our advantage.
Only 6 of them will go to our advantage from Kreuzer.

You'd think that this basically translates to 2 extra clearances per game from our mids with Phillips.

Kreuzer gets more clearances per game than Phillips does, but only by 1.

So ruck wise, we are 1 clearance better when rucking with Phillips than we are with Kreuzer.

Phillips also has more agro than Kreuzer.

[flyboy77]

Agreed Kruddler.

On the Crows...

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2019/07/25/w...-adelaide/

[DJC]

Been playing well weeks previous to that as well...Jacobs cant get back in and is playing SANFL.
Obrien was a stiff who didnt look like making it as a player ever and I couldnt see how he would ever make it but he has gone to the next level and is is very Kreuzer like at ground level.
Philips does an ok job but as Prof pointed out most of his opponents had very good games when he played earlier and he will need to play four quarters vs Obrien who is very fit.

How much of the Crows selection decisions are down to Pyke thrashing around and player unhappiness?

Phillips played well in Round 1 but Nankervis with three goals was better on the night.  However, Phillips and Casboult is a more difficult proposition than Phillips and McKay.  It was the same in Round 2 with Phillips doing OK but he and McKay couldn’t match Lycett and Ryder.

O’Brien gets his share of hitouts and gathers lots of possessions for a ruckman but he doesn’t take many marks.  If Phillips is on his game, he and Casboult could force O’Brien to focus on trying to defend.

[flyboy77]

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/2...iday-night

The Blues to get the upper hand in the Adelaide pick swap

Even a few weeks ago, uttering the words "break even" in relation to Carlton and Adelaide's historic live pick swap would have been met with raised eyebrows.

For those who might have forgotten the details, during last year's national draft, the Blues shipped their 2019 first-round pick to Adelaide for pick 19 (Liam Stocker) and their first-round pick.

As it stands, the Blues are sending pick 3 in exchange for Stocker (already on their list) and pick 11, but the Blues are in good form, and the Crows... well, not so much. So is it beyond the realms that 16th placed Carlton can knock off the 8th placed Crows at the MCG on Saturday afternoon and swing the proverbial needle their way?

In short, no. Carlton are playing an attractive and attacking brand of football not seen since the Brett Ratten days, while the Crows have been made to look old and slow in recent weeks. Adelaide's record at the MCG doesn't make for good reading either; they played there twice last year for two big losses - by 47 points to the Tigers and 56 points to the Hawks. They're yet to play at the home of footy this season.


Adelaide can also expect a hostile crowd at the 'G, and not only because this is Carlton's 'Grand Final'. The Blues are smashing membership and crowd records despite their dour season, and last week posted their highest ever attendance against the Suns. The MCC is predicting a crowd of more than 46,000 on Saturday - which would be Carlton's largest ever home-and-away home crowd against the Crows.

Should the Blues win on Saturday and other results fall the way of the favourites, Carlton moves level with Sydney on 24 points -- and within striking distance of 15th spot on the ladder -- while the Crows open the door for a number of other teams to enquire about the final spot in the eight.

It's fair to say there hasn't been this much intrigue surrounding a Round 19 match involving Carlton for some time, so tune in on Saturday for the Liam Stocker Cup.

[WASurfer]

Hard to work out how Macreadie gets name as an emergency after doing nothing in the VFL....yet Schumacher must be getting close to a game given his recent form but can't crack it even as an emergency? I thought he might squeeze his way in this week.

Does Ed get the job on Crouch (the better one)....and maybe Silvagni a run with role on Lynch?

[jeza]

How much of the Crows selection decisions are down to Pyke thrashing around and player unhappiness?

Phillips played well in Round 1 but Nankervis with three goals was better on the night.  However, Phillips and Casboult is a more difficult proposition than Phillips and McKay.  It was the same in Round 2 with Phillips doing OK but he and McKay couldn’t match Lycett and Ryder.

O’Brien gets his share of hitouts and gathers lots of possessions for a ruckman but he doesn’t take many marks.  If Phillips is on his game, he and Casboult could force O’Brien to focus on trying to defend.

Phillips has to be backing himself in against a guy who hasn't played 20 games yet. Kreuzer got belted last week and we couldn't buy a centre clearance. Hopefully this week will be improved. Do the Crows have a tagger?

[kruddler]

Phillips has to be backing himself in against a guy who hasn't played 20 games yet.

I agree,  but for the record, Phillips hasn't played 40 games yet.