Post Game Passion: AFL 2019 Rd 13: Carlton vs. Western Bulldogs

[LP]

LOB is simply a waste of a #10 selection.

Major f... up.

He wouldn't get a game at any other AFL Club. Period.

What's the average success rate for pick #10?

I'll be surprised if long term it's much better than pure chance which is 50%, so any pick that looks capable of playing 100 games is a winner! 7 of the following 15 fail the test!

10 Nicholas Blakey Sydney Swans UNSW/ES Bulldogs 2018
10 Lochie O'Brien Carlton Bendigo Pioneers 2017
10 Jack Bowes Gold Coast Cairns 2016
10 Harry McKay Carlton Gippsland U18 2015
10 Nakia Cockatoo Geelong NT Thunder 2014
10 Nathan Freeman Collingwood Sandringham U18 2013
10 Joe Daniher Essendon Calder U18 2012
10 Liam Sumner Greater Western Sydney Sandringham U18 2011
10 Daniel Gorringe Gold Coast Norwood 2010
10 Jake Melksham Essendon Calder U18 2009
10 Phil Davis Adelaide North Adelaide 2008
10 Patrick Dangerfield Adelaide Geelong U18 2007
10 Nathan J. Brown Collingwood North Ballarat U18 2006
10 Marcus Drum Fremantle Murray U18 2005
10 Chris Egan Collingwood Murray U18 2004

[PaulP]

What's the average success rate for pick #10?

I'll be surprised if it's better than 50%, which is pure chance, so any pick that looks capable of playing 100 games is a winner!

https://www.draftguru.com.au/picks/10

There's some good ones and also some shockers in there, like most pick numbers.

[LP]

https://www.draftguru.com.au/picks/10

There's some good ones and also some shockers in there, like most pick numbers.

Thanks PaulP, that's 13 of the last 37 that have made 100 games, 35% success!

I suspect O'Brien is better than average and if injury free should get 100 games either at Carlton or in career total.

Is it reasonable for me to set 100 AFL games as the measure of a successful draft pick?

btw., looking at pick #20, success rate 21%, so to me it seems such picks are not equal to players! (Disturbing given the AFL's opaque methods can mean Draft Pick #20 is a first round pick with only 21% chance of success. Think about that when trading away a 100 gamer or supplementary KPP!)

[PaulP]

Thanks PaulP, that's 13 of the last 37 that have made 100 games, 35% success!

...........

No worries.

[jeza]

The fact is you cannot tell if he'll be any good or not as he's skinny and 19.

Disagreeing with that is a "spud"like thing to do in my opinion.

Anyone can bookmark this page and come back in 12 months and make you look a complete and total dill.

[LP]

The fact is you cannot tell if he'll be any good or not as he's skinny and 19.

Disagreeing with that is a "spud"like thing to do in my opinion.

Anyone can bookmark this page and come back in 12 months and make you look a complete and total dill.

Agreed.

In the context of SOS, Draft picks and f... ups, the early O'Brien negativity is sailing into the headwind. Just based on stats alone he is already 1/3rd of the way to the average number of games for a Pick #10, and 25% of the way to 100 games!

Of course I accept there is some ambiguity, for example setting the 100 game threshold leaves Joe Daniher a success at 104 games, but in reality he is probably closer to a scrub! I'd say that Big H(Pick #10 - 28 games) or Charlie(Pick #12 - 57 games) already have Daniher covered!

[Micky0]

There’s something about LOB - he’s hungry for it and he was hugely pissed when he gave away a free in their f50.  Showed some passion, lacking at CFC for many lately

[shawny]

LOB is simply a waste of a #10 selection.

Major f... up.

He wouldn't get a game at any other AFL Club. Period.

I agree he was a unusual pick 10, and one that raised eyebrows.  However he does have one good quality about him that I like. He has the confidence to use the ball long by foot - He kicks it hard and low a lot of the time and while his DE might not be as good as say a Walsh or SPS who like to chip the ball 20-25mts, when Obrien hits the target they are damaging possessions. They usually give our forwards a one on one and he kicks nicely to advantage as well. Long foot skills is a great quality to see in a very young player. He obviously still has heaps to build on but I rate that side of his game...I'm willing to give him more time.

Dow is the one that concerns me.....doesn't get it often and when he does its usually not clean. My concern is how many young players over the years, have we developed from a poor kick to a good one? Not many!  We are not Geelong or Hawthorn in the development side so selecting Dow with pick 3 was a dumb move IMO.

[kruddler]

Thats the poor young Ben who wont chase, cant be bothered putting in much effort and thinks playing senior footy will just happen because Dad's a big wheel
at the club and is doing it so tough...

I think you spelt "Gary Ablett" wrong.

[PaulP]

https://www.carltonfc.com.au/news/2019-0...ned-by-mro