Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

[LP]

I thought he had no contract?

That is how I understood it, he's not on a contract but he is a fulltime employee of the club like an office manager and so he has protections like any other full-time employee under federal awards.

[DJC]

If Carlton want to sack Bolton, no industrial relations will keep him in the job, and he will be paid out accordingly.

Part of this deal will be an exit strategy for both coach and club in the event it all goes pear shaped, and keeping someone in place that either party doesnt want to be there is a recipe for doom.

It's unlikely that he would be reinstated but not impossible.  In that case, you would expect those involved in his removal to immediately resign.

Bolton's employment agreement has provisions for a financial settlement in the event of termination.  Initially it was to be triggered if he was terminated in the first two years of his employment but that has been extended to the end of the 2020 season.  Termination after that date would mean that he would receive whatever entitlements are due.  If the club was to renege, it would be grounds for an unfair dismissal process. That option would not be available to contracted coaches.

[Gointocarlton]

That is how I understood it, he's not on a contract but he is a fulltime employee of the club like an office manager and so he has protections like any other full-time employee under federal awards.

Most professional employees sign a contract.

[jeza]

Most professional employees sign a contract.

Yes - every employee signs a contract of some sort. It's different to being "on a contract" with a fixed term.

[Thryleon]

It's unlikely that he would be reinstated but not impossible.  In that case, you would expect those involved in his removal to immediately resign.

Bolton's employment agreement has provisions for a financial settlement in the event of termination.  Initially it was to be triggered if he was terminated in the first two years of his employment but that has been extended to the end of the 2020 season.  Termination after that date would mean that he would receive whatever entitlements are due.  If the club was to renege, it would be grounds for an unfair dismissal process. That option would not be available to contracted coaches.

1.  If Carlton want Bolton gone, they will dismiss him and pay him out accordingly which will be all that matters (most contracted coaches end up in the same boat).

2.  Any employee in these situations ends up in a situation of pain, and the employers move on pretty quickly if they wish (with some more hurdles to jump over to achieve it).  IF the industrial relations process occur, all that usually amounts to is different termination conditions, and/or a shuffle of said staff into different roles to meet the conditions as laid out in the employment contract or agreement.

3.  All of it is literally just semantics.  The same dynamics between employer and employee are generally equal with other AFL senior coaches.

[Opine]

1.  If Carlton want Bolton gone, they will dismiss him and pay him out accordingly which will be all that matters (most contracted coaches end up in the same boat).

2.  Any employee in these situations ends up in a situation of pain, and the employers move on pretty quickly if they wish (with some more hurdles to jump over to achieve it).  IF the industrial relations process occur, all that usually amounts to is different termination conditions, and/or a shuffle of said staff into different roles to meet the conditions as laid out in the employment contract or agreement.

3.  All of it is literally just semantics.  The same dynamics between employer and employee are generally equal with other AFL senior coaches.

The way that it may, or may not, be likely play out is a separate issue. That  coach and club have agreed to come together under a regime that provides a third party the power to determine whether a termination is unfair is not semantics. It's not a situation that clubs are used to being in.

[flyboy77]

The issue is being overthought.

If any Club wants their Coach gone, then he will be GONE.

I think BB will need a few good wins eg an upset over a good side (RD 1 would be nice!) + a couple of others before the break or the knives will come out.....

Looking at the draw, could we eat Port rd 2? Not out of the question.

Swans at Docklands? Yep, possibly.

GC up north - hopefully!!

Bulldogs at Docklands - sure.

Hawks in Tassie? Yep, no Mitchell....

Norf at Marvel? Maybe.

Pies at the G? hmmmm

GWS up there? Tough.

But it's hardly a terrible draw - there are numerous winnable games there.....

[DamonBlue]

The issue is being overthought.

If any Club wants their Coach gone, then he will be GONE.

I think BB will need a few good wins eg an upset over a good side (RD 1 would be nice!) + a couple of others before the break or the knives will come out.....

Looking at the draw, could we eat Port rd 2? Not out of the question.

Swans at Docklands? Yep, possibly.

GC up north - hopefully!!

Bulldogs at Docklands - sure.

Hawks in Tassie? Yep, no Mitchell....

Norf at Marvel? Maybe.

Pies at the G? hmmmm

GWS up there? Tough.

But it's hardly a terrible draw - there are numerous winnable games there.....

Yep, we certainly won't have the draw to blame, FB.

I'm looking for at least 5 wins, as a pass mark.

We play both St Kilda and GC twice - we should win at least 3 of them.

We should win one of the Bulldogs games - play them twice also.

The Lions at the 'G in round 8 - we should get up.

That's five very winnable games already, and I think we'll upset at least one side. As you say, FB, hopefully in Round 1!

[flyboy77]

There are two sides to the equation - the sides that will improve - markedly or modestly.

Those who will slip or stay static - ageing list, poor drafting, injury

Goes without saying CFC will be an improver. Question is how much!

Teams that will slide imo:

1. GC (lack of quality, losing Lynch, May)
2. Hawks (no Mitchell, ageing list).
3. Cats (Ablett coming 'home' was a mistake).
4. Sydney (Lance will stop being a force sooner than later, midfield not what it was, ordinary back line).
5.  North (they over achieved in 2018).
6. Tigers too? Will Lynch add or detract from team balance? Will their ordinary ruck brigade finally come home to roost?

Teams that will remain same same:

7. Freo - losing Neale a huge loss. Hogan? meh....he doesn't seem overly interested in footy.
8. Brisbane (everybody loves them but don't see why their improvement should be anything near ours - guys like Robbo, Rich getting on, no Beams, no Rockliff - other than Neale who's A grade in their midfield?)
9. Port (just don't see it with these guys....they've bought players to get them a flag tilt but Watts et al aren't going to get them there).
10. Pies - overachievers in 2018 but kudos to them.
11. West Coast - hard to beat, especially in Perth.
12 Saints - another team where I simply don't see it - is Hanneberry getting $800k a year? Will he produce? Doubtful, very. All that paycheck will do is add to disharmony....
13. GWS - still a force but will Kelly,Hopper,Coniglio be thinking about possible moves in 2020 and lack the required focus?
14. Bulldogs - middle of the road - lack class in numbers....

Improvers:

15. Dees (young blokes getting into the peak zone, Steven May).
16. Crows (only because they were so ordinary in 2018) - plenty of quality in that list.
17. Essendon (Shiel et al and Daniher back) - hate them but they'll make the 8.
18. The mighty Blues - again, how much can we improve rapidly (using our 2017 season as a relevant benchmark - won 6 games, 9 other games lost by 4 goals or less - beating GWS,Sydney, Pies,Essendon, Hawks and GC)?

[Opine]

There are two sides to the equation - the sides that will improve - markedly or modestly.

Those who will slip or stay static - ageing list, poor drafting, injury

Goes without saying CFC will be an improver. Question is how much!

Teams that will slide imo:

1. GC (lack of quality, losing Lynch, May)
2. Hawks (no Mitchell, ageing list).
3. Cats (Ablett coming 'home' was a mistake).
4. Sydney (Lance will stop being a force sooner than later, midfield not what it was, ordinary back line).
5.  North (they over achieved in 2018).
6. Tigers too? Will Lynch add or detract from team balance? Will their ordinary ruck brigade finally come home to roost?

Teams that will remain same same:

7. Freo - losing Neale a huge loss. Hogan? meh....he doesn't seem overly interested in footy.
8. Brisbane (everybody loves them but don't see why their improvement should be anything near ours - guys like Robbo, Rich getting on, no Beams, no Rockliff - other than Neale who's A grade in their midfield?)
9. Port (just don't see it with these guys....they've bought players to get them a flag tilt but Watts et al aren't going to get them there).
10. Pies - overachievers in 2018 but kudos to them.
11. West Coast - hard to beat, especially in Perth.
12 Saints - another team where I simply don't see it - is Hanneberry getting $800k a year? Will he produce? Doubtful, very. All that paycheck will do is add to disharmony....
13. GWS - still a force but will Kelly,Hopper,Coniglio be thinking about possible moves in 2020 and lack the required focus?
14. Bulldogs - middle of the road - lack class in numbers....

Improvers:

15. Dees (young blokes getting into the peak zone, Steven May).
16. Crows (only because they were so ordinary in 2018) - plenty of quality in that list.
17. Essendon (Shiel et al and Daniher back) - hate them but they'll make the 8.
18. The mighty Blues - again, how much can we improve rapidly (using our 2017 season as a relevant benchmark - won 6 games, 9 other games lost by 4 goals or less - beating GWS,Sydney, Pies,Essendon, Hawks and GC)?

That's a fairly good assessment. 
Not sure the Crow's will improve that much, if at all. I have them in the status quo category; at least I hope so.