Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

[sandsmere]

Bolton's original employment agreement specified a period (two years IIRC) during which he would receive a full payout if his services were terminated.  I understand that, as his employment agreement has been extended, the payout period has also been extended.  If Bolton's services were to be terminated before the end of the 2020 season, he would receive his full salary for the period of this agreement (2021?).

Yes. There was an agreement signed in May 2018.

[madbluboy]

Bolton is on a contract that's apparently not a contract.

[thefutureisblue]

I think the key difference is that if nothing happens with a regular contract, the contract will expire and the person would no longer be the coach. A new contract would need to be negotiated.

With Bolts, if nothing happens he will continue to be our coach indefinitely, maintaining the same conditions he has now.

Whilst it will never remove speculation about his position, it does remove the time pressure that all the others have as they reach the end of their contract period.

[thefutureisblue]

I thought I'd dig up some stats from the last 10 seasons. These are examples of rapid rises up the ladder over 1 or 2 seasons.

14th > 2nd (1 season)
13 > 3 (1)
18 > 7 (1)
14 > 6 (1)
10 > 2 (1)
16 > 4 (2)
12 > 4 (1)
16 > 7 (2)
13 > 3 (1)
18 > 9 (2)
13 > 2 (2)
16 > 4 (1)
14 > 6 (1)

On average, 1 team will jump up 8+ ladder positions in a single season.
Who will it be this year?

[DamonBlue]

The difficulty with predicting where we'll finish is that we could improve quite significantly without winning many more games. That is, we were so dreadful last year that marked improvement might not translate to wins.

This year, I'll be *happy* if we:
- win 5+
- beat someone in the top six; and
- don't lose more than 1 game by 40+.

That would set us up for a genuine climb the year after.

I'll be disappointed with anything less.

[Thryleon]

Bolton is on a contract that's apparently not a contract.

This.

A rose is a rose, and by another name would smell the same.


The rest is just spin.  Perhaps he has more protection than the average contract, and is a permanent employee of the business, but a fixed term contract is no different to a regular contract.

[DamonBlue]

I thought I'd dig up some stats from the last 10 seasons. These are examples of rapid rises up the ladder over 1 or 2 seasons.

14th > 2nd (1 season)
13 > 3 (1)
18 > 7 (1)
14 > 6 (1)
10 > 2 (1)
16 > 4 (2)
12 > 4 (1)
16 > 7 (2)
13 > 3 (1)
18 > 9 (2)
13 > 2 (2)
16 > 4 (1)
14 > 6 (1)

On average, 1 team will jump up 8+ ladder positions in a single season.
Who will it be this year?

That's really interesting - thanks, FIB.

Well, we can take out the top 7!!

I hate to say it - in fact I have a little bit of vomit in my mouth as I do - but I think the Bombres look the most likely.

[Opine]

I think the key difference is that if nothing happens with a regular contract, the contract will expire and the person would no longer be the coach. A new contract would need to be negotiated.

With Bolts, if nothing happens he will continue to be our coach indefinitely, maintaining the same conditions he has now.

Whilst it will never remove speculation about his position, it does remove the time pressure that all the others have as they reach the end of their contract period.

It annoys me every time I read or hear a reference to his employment relationship communicated as though a non fixed term agreement is, by default, less certain that a fixed term agreement. The  distinction on its own is irrelevant; depending on how its done it may be even more secure.

[flyboy77]

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/25...2015-draft

[Professer E]

Sorry,  but hindsight analysis is utter crap.... And I don't rate his current predictions let alone him trawling through the past.