11-26-2018, 03:17 AM
I thought I would bring this up again. This was a much tougher exercise, and my confidence in the tier 1 players giving us much more than the kids is wavering (for good and bad reasons). The kids are coming up, but our experienced players are going backwards as much. Much of what happens is down to the miracle work of Mr. Russell. If our Tier 1 players are in good condition, and available, as well as playing well, they will probably be walk up starts.
What I can see happening is that the following players will be picked most weeks unless injured, or struggling for form/fitness majorly with the kids being "ready".
Tier 1. Constants. Mature agers, team leaders, onfield coaches, call them whatever you want but these guys give you 4 quarters of bonafide established footy credentials, even if we think we have better youngsters in the next tiers waiting for a game:
Marc Murphy
Kade Simpson
Matthew Kreuzer
Ed Curnow
Dale Thomas
Levi Casboult - Sticks out in this group. He's the last one standing who really doesn't belong here, and the kids have definately gone past, but he gets in here as the second ruckman/forward purely until Kreuzer is looking durable again. I wouldnt want to ruck any of our other youngsters in the event of a Kreuzer break down.
Mitch McGovern
Alex Fasolo - Another one I toyed with, but I had Wright here, and Fasolo is the logical replacement. He probably would have stayed at Collingwood as a backup, so he's probably come here to play footy (and probably will).
Patrick Cripps
Sam Docherty
Lachie Plowman
Liam Jones
Charlie Curnow (still quite green, but he's a first name on the sheet type of player)
Jacob Weitering (stalling a little on his promise, but he and Jones will be first names on the list types in 2019).
These guys are going to be on the team sheet first. These guys are only going to be excluded from selection if they are struggling big time in which case we will go the following tiers instead. Sure some kids might go past a few of them, but I've gravitated towards bonafide experienced bodies in this camp for a reason. Some will only miss out purely to give a kid who's really ticking all the boxes a chance, and which way we go will depend largely on how badly we want to win most weeks, and I am inferring that we will want to be winning most weeks. Projection 16 plus games for the year. Some will play less (looking at Levi and maybe Fasolo if he isnt 100%), but most will be in the team most of the time.
The Second tier (A mixture of blokes who are emerging talents/Arriving talents who are not quite 4 quarter week in and week out producers yet):
SPS (I almost graduated him, but I think its a bit unfair to place too high a demand to be a senior footballer in only his 3rd year on the list even though he has coped to date).
Matthew Kennedy (needs a big 2019 to stamp his credentials).
Harry McKay (I almost graduated him, but I think its a bit unfair to place too high a demand to be a senior footballer week in and week out with only 15 career games).
Zac Fisher (I almost graduated him, but I think its a bit unfair to place too high a demand to be a senior footballer given his leg break and he has only played 34 games).
Tom Williamson
Paddy Dow (don't shoot me, he's only in his second year, and I expect him to buck the trend)
Lachie O'Brien
Will Setterfield
Caleb Marchbank (See Paddy Dow).
These guys could be anything. They will make up the interchange bench if not be walk up starts, but they will be kept honest by the aformentioned. Some of them will play every week and some of our leaders will transition into other roles, or perhaps VFL leadership roles instead.
Projection between 12-16 games for the season with anything more being a bonus.
The 3rd Tier:
Matthew Lobbe
Nic Newman (I think we got him to be a full time footballer and play a variety of stop gaps our kids cant fulfil yet but Im putting him here as he is 25 and yet to play 50 games).
Tom Bugg (I think he will play more often than not too, but he's going to have to earn his 100th AFL game).
Jarrod Garlett
David Cunningham
Jack Silvagni
Darcy Lang
Cameron Polson
Jarrod Pickett
Andrew Phillips
Kym Lebois
This group are role/depth players/unfulfilled talents who could surprise and play every week but are more likely to be filling in the gaps for team balance that we cant quite get right from the aforementioned. I expect some to play frequently but it wouldn't surprise me to see them all out of the equation for senior football (and on the scrap heap) at all and if they play even 12 games they have done well. Projection 5-15 games for the season unless they surprise or injury hits hard like last year.
The 4th Tier:
Tom De Koning
Angus Schumacher
Harrison Macreadie
Pat Kerr
Sam Walsh
Liam Stocker
Ben Silvagni
Hugh Goddard
Finbar O'Dwyer
Matthew Owies
Youngsters that are still firmly on their L plates and looking to find their feet at this level, or learn roles. Some might emerge instantly and play like seasoned pros (looking at Sam Walsh and Liam Stocker) but realistically if they get anywhere near 10 games for the year, they will be deemed a roaring success and we will not be travelling all that well if too many of them get lots of games in 2019. (Projected anywhere from 0-8 games with anything else being a major positive).
I know many are going to jump up and down about some of the players I have mentioned should be being in the first tier, but realistically the tier 2 players are all sub 50 gamers and if they are walk up starts they've either come on in leaps and bounds, or injuries have hit pretty hard.
Im really positive about this composition. I had a tough time with some players (Bugg could arguably be a 4 quarter player every week, but I think he'll be made to earn it) and some of our talented youngsters are in that sweet spot where they will go up a level again. Fisher, SPS, Marchbank, Weitering, Curnow, McGovern all should really start to kick on and go up another level in 2019. Id like to see Harry in place of Levi most weeks too, but again hes played less than 20 AFL games across the journey but going into his 4th season, anything can (and hopefully will happen).
What I can see happening is that the following players will be picked most weeks unless injured, or struggling for form/fitness majorly with the kids being "ready".
Tier 1. Constants. Mature agers, team leaders, onfield coaches, call them whatever you want but these guys give you 4 quarters of bonafide established footy credentials, even if we think we have better youngsters in the next tiers waiting for a game:
Marc Murphy
Kade Simpson
Matthew Kreuzer
Ed Curnow
Dale Thomas
Levi Casboult - Sticks out in this group. He's the last one standing who really doesn't belong here, and the kids have definately gone past, but he gets in here as the second ruckman/forward purely until Kreuzer is looking durable again. I wouldnt want to ruck any of our other youngsters in the event of a Kreuzer break down.
Mitch McGovern
Alex Fasolo - Another one I toyed with, but I had Wright here, and Fasolo is the logical replacement. He probably would have stayed at Collingwood as a backup, so he's probably come here to play footy (and probably will).
Patrick Cripps
Sam Docherty
Lachie Plowman
Liam Jones
Charlie Curnow (still quite green, but he's a first name on the sheet type of player)
Jacob Weitering (stalling a little on his promise, but he and Jones will be first names on the list types in 2019).
These guys are going to be on the team sheet first. These guys are only going to be excluded from selection if they are struggling big time in which case we will go the following tiers instead. Sure some kids might go past a few of them, but I've gravitated towards bonafide experienced bodies in this camp for a reason. Some will only miss out purely to give a kid who's really ticking all the boxes a chance, and which way we go will depend largely on how badly we want to win most weeks, and I am inferring that we will want to be winning most weeks. Projection 16 plus games for the year. Some will play less (looking at Levi and maybe Fasolo if he isnt 100%), but most will be in the team most of the time.
The Second tier (A mixture of blokes who are emerging talents/Arriving talents who are not quite 4 quarter week in and week out producers yet):
SPS (I almost graduated him, but I think its a bit unfair to place too high a demand to be a senior footballer in only his 3rd year on the list even though he has coped to date).
Matthew Kennedy (needs a big 2019 to stamp his credentials).
Harry McKay (I almost graduated him, but I think its a bit unfair to place too high a demand to be a senior footballer week in and week out with only 15 career games).
Zac Fisher (I almost graduated him, but I think its a bit unfair to place too high a demand to be a senior footballer given his leg break and he has only played 34 games).
Tom Williamson
Paddy Dow (don't shoot me, he's only in his second year, and I expect him to buck the trend)
Lachie O'Brien
Will Setterfield
Caleb Marchbank (See Paddy Dow).
These guys could be anything. They will make up the interchange bench if not be walk up starts, but they will be kept honest by the aformentioned. Some of them will play every week and some of our leaders will transition into other roles, or perhaps VFL leadership roles instead.
Projection between 12-16 games for the season with anything more being a bonus.
The 3rd Tier:
Matthew Lobbe
Nic Newman (I think we got him to be a full time footballer and play a variety of stop gaps our kids cant fulfil yet but Im putting him here as he is 25 and yet to play 50 games).
Tom Bugg (I think he will play more often than not too, but he's going to have to earn his 100th AFL game).
Jarrod Garlett
David Cunningham
Jack Silvagni
Darcy Lang
Cameron Polson
Jarrod Pickett
Andrew Phillips
Kym Lebois
This group are role/depth players/unfulfilled talents who could surprise and play every week but are more likely to be filling in the gaps for team balance that we cant quite get right from the aforementioned. I expect some to play frequently but it wouldn't surprise me to see them all out of the equation for senior football (and on the scrap heap) at all and if they play even 12 games they have done well. Projection 5-15 games for the season unless they surprise or injury hits hard like last year.
The 4th Tier:
Tom De Koning
Angus Schumacher
Harrison Macreadie
Pat Kerr
Sam Walsh
Liam Stocker
Ben Silvagni
Hugh Goddard
Finbar O'Dwyer
Matthew Owies
Youngsters that are still firmly on their L plates and looking to find their feet at this level, or learn roles. Some might emerge instantly and play like seasoned pros (looking at Sam Walsh and Liam Stocker) but realistically if they get anywhere near 10 games for the year, they will be deemed a roaring success and we will not be travelling all that well if too many of them get lots of games in 2019. (Projected anywhere from 0-8 games with anything else being a major positive).
I know many are going to jump up and down about some of the players I have mentioned should be being in the first tier, but realistically the tier 2 players are all sub 50 gamers and if they are walk up starts they've either come on in leaps and bounds, or injuries have hit pretty hard.
Im really positive about this composition. I had a tough time with some players (Bugg could arguably be a 4 quarter player every week, but I think he'll be made to earn it) and some of our talented youngsters are in that sweet spot where they will go up a level again. Fisher, SPS, Marchbank, Weitering, Curnow, McGovern all should really start to kick on and go up another level in 2019. Id like to see Harry in place of Levi most weeks too, but again hes played less than 20 AFL games across the journey but going into his 4th season, anything can (and hopefully will happen).
"everything you know is wrong"
Paul Hewson
Paul Hewson
