2018 Rd 14; Pre Game Preparations: Carlton vs Collingwood

[LP]

The last 40 games must fall in a 24 month window of eligible games, if they miss games in that window period their rating drops. It's why Rioli and Murphy's rating have both diminished significantly. The rating keeps dropping with every game they miss!

[madbluboy]

A player's rating is determined by aggregating his points tally based on a rolling window of the previous two seasons. For example, after round six of the 2014 season, a player's rating will be based on matches from round seven of the 2012 season onwards. However, only a player's most recent 40 matches are used in the calculation of his rating. This creates a buffer for players missing matches through injury, suspension, omission or by not being involved in finals. A player's most recent 30 matches are given greater weight in determining his rating. Matches 31 through 40 are progressively reduced in weighting, from 100 per cent down to five per cent for the earliest game in the window.

[LP]

It's consistent with what I have told you.

Further if the injuries occur within the 30 most recent matches it will have an even bigger effect as the last 30 eligible rounds are loaded!

[madbluboy]

It's consistent with what I have told you.

Further if the injuries occur within the 30 most recent matches it will have an even bigger effect as the last 30 eligible rounds are loaded!

Do you think the AFL have a big conspiracy to make Marc Murphy look worse than he actually is?

[LP]

Do you think the AFL have a big conspiracy to make Marc Murphy look worse than he actually is?

What about Cyril, are you ignoring those stats?

Murphy stats are explained in the very same way that Cyril's stats are explained, they've both missed games which in the AFL ratings system has a huge impact.

Go back and look at Murphy's pure stats, 2017 is the equal best of any year, then look at the AFL chart you want to believe. There is a discontinuity because from pure stats 2011 to 2014 Murphy averaged 99pts, and between 2014 and 2017 he averaged 96pts, which is a 3% drop. But the same period on the AFL site is a 23% change!

The difference is explained by missed games and loadings, it's a problem with windowed analysis because it encompasses feedback as part of the result. The left side peaks are not equal to the right side peaks, because of the feedback, even though Murphy's 2017 statistically equals his 2011.

[madbluboy]

Rioli has had a poor 2 years by his standards and the ratings reflect that.

[LP]

Rioli has had a poor 2 years by his standards and the ratings reflect that.

Murphy's 2017 was equal of any in his career, better than any other year listed on that graph, but the graph does not reflect that because of the way the figures are calculated!

[Jack Burton]

I don't care what the stats say, we are desperately short of classy experienced players, we need him to stay

[Lods]

I think it's time for him to handover the captaincy solely for the "generational change" reason.

But I want him to stay.
Does anyone really think we're not missing him at the moment

[PaulP]

I think it's time for him to handover the captaincy solely for the "generational change" reason.

But I want him to stay.
Does anyone really think we're not missing him at the moment

I reckon there'd be a few on here who would think that.