01-05-2018, 05:24 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-05-2018, 02:53 PM by Navy Maven.)
This is by far the worst time of the year, with no football to speak and barely anything of note to discuss. So to cure my boredom I've done a little analysis of all 18 teams and where I believe they are on the 'Premiership Clock' as a bit of a discussion point.
I've added how many star players each team has, in either Bona Fide, Rising or Fading stars. This is where it might get a little subjective, but the way I rate a 'star' is if they'd walk onto any other list in the AFL and carry the same or greater star power. That's why I haven't included players like Marc Murphy who is obviously a star for us, but perhaps wouldn't be if he was in a much stronger midfield (ie would he have just won a B+F if he were playing for GWS). As for the Rising Stars, I haven't included any unproven kids, only those who have played enough games to suggest they're probably going to be elite in their position. There were a couple of players that it was hard to determine if they were Rising or Bona Fide (see Clayton Oliver) but I've gone with gut feel.
Adelaide
Time: 23:50
Should have won the premiership in 2017, should be favourites in 2018. Gibbs in is a big plus and they already have the best forward line in the comp. Jake Lever out hurts them, but they seem to have some decent young depth.
Bona Fide Stars
Eddie Betts, Rory Sloane, Daniel Talia, Matt Crouch
Rising Stars
Mitch McGovern
Fading Stars
None
Brisbane
Time: 11:00
Almost at the point where they have all the pieces in place, now it's just time for them to get games into kids. Their biggest challenge will continue to be retention, although that already looks to be improving. They have Hipwood to build a forward line around and a great bunch of young mids and defenders. Charlie Cameron is a great get, they're probably just 1 KPF short of having all the pieces after Schache left.
Bona Fide Stars
Dayne Zorko
Rising Stars
Alex Witherden, Eric Hipwood, Charlie Cameron, Hugh McCluggage
Fading Stars
Luke Hodge, Stefan Martin
Carlton
Time: 12:00
Similar to Brisbane, Carlton are now in prime position to start their ascent up the ladder. Carlton are probably slightly more advanced given the investment in and retention of gun young players over the past few draft periods. No obvious holes in the list, it's now more an issue of getting games into players and hoping they develop as intended. Now probably at the half way point to a drought breaking Premiership.
Bona Fide Stars
Patrick Cripps, Matthew Kreuzer, Sam Docherty
Rising Stars
Charlie Curnow, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Jacob Weitering, Caleb Marchbank
Fading Stars
Kade Simpson
Collingwood
Time: 13:00
A team that appears to be heading backwards, they have a certain amount of talent on their list, but most of that is in their elder players. They have a wealth of midfield depth but no tall scoring power. They have some of the best small forwards in the comp, but can't keep them on the park. Buckley doesn't seem well placed to get the most out of his players, and to me, they look like they'd be better serviced investing in a complete rebuild while they still have some players with currency. Expect them though to try and buy their way out with some pricey Free Agents this year.
Bona Fide Stars
Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar
Rising Stars
Darcy Moore
Fading Stars
Daniel Wells
Essendon
Time: 20:00
In that weird position where they could go either way this season. Managed to bring in some new players in the trade period for the first time in a long time, but also lost some experienced players through retirement. The drugs saga has knocked them around a bit, so it's hard to get a good read on them. Personally I think they'll go backwards before forwards, but Richmond won the Premiership, so literally anything is possible. Thanks to their drug cheating penalties and resulting poor performance for a couple of seasons, they've managed to pick up some great young players, but they're probably lacking the depth required to go to that next level.
Bona Fide Stars
Zach Merrett, Joe Daniher, Michael Hurley
Rising Stars
Andrew McGrath, Darcy Parish, Orazio Fantasia
Fading Stars
Brendon Goddard
Fremantle
Time: 03:00
Ross the Boss strikes again. As modern history has shown, the greatest coaches know how to build, develop and lead a team of superstars. Ross seems capable of doing only one of those things. He took a Freo team that was on the brink of breaking through and took them to a Grand Final appearance, but when age and injury starting catching up to them, it's become evident that once again he has very few tricks up his sleeve. His major test will come over the next couple of years, now that he's got some high end draft talent onto the list, let's see what he does with them. They're probably a couple more draft/trade periods away from being able to make a proper run up the ladder.
Bona Fide Stars
Nat Fyfe, Lachie Neale, Brad Hill
Rising Stars
Sean Darcy
Fading Stars
David Mundy, Aaron Sandilands
Geelong
Time: 22:30
Luck with injury will make or break Geelong this season. They have all the talent needed to be a genuine Premiership contender, but lack in depth if anything were to happen to their preferred 22. The fitness and form of Tom Hawkins will largely dictate their success, as their KPF depth is probably their weakest link. They've been shrewd in the trade period, bring in some solid talent to beef up thier list, but their consistent success over the past decade has meant that they don't have a lot of elite young talent coming through, if any at all.
Bona Fide Stars
Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Mitch Duncan
Rising Stars
None
Fading Stars
Gary Ablett Jr, Harry Taylor, Tom Hawkins
Gold Coast
Time: 04:00
Gold Coast are in an interesting situation, they've lost a lot of senior talent over the past couple of seasons, but as a result they've been able to hit the draft pretty hard. Their success is reliant on two things; retention and development. If Stewy Dew can develop these highly rated youngsters and retain their star players (namely Tom Lynch this season) then they can join the likes of Brisbane and Carlton as one of the exciting youngs teams of the comp. I wouldn't want to be trading out any more #2 draft picks though.
Bona Fide Stars
Tom Lynch, Steven May
Rising Stars
Jack Martin, Kade Kolodjashnij, Lachie Weller, Peter Wright, Ben Ainsworth
Fading Stars
Pearce Hanley
GWS
Time: 23:00
Perhaps the biggest enigma in the comp, on paper GWS should be dominating their rivals each week, but for some reason this team of theoretical superstars just can't mesh. They definitely have all the tools in place, so if something clicks this season the Premiership could very well be theirs. Not convinced that Leon Cameron is the coach they need either.
Bona Fide Stars
Josh Kelly, Jeremy Cameron, Dylan Shiel, Callan Ward
Rising Stars
Jacob Hopper, Tim Taranto
Fading Stars
Brett Deledio, Heath Shaw, Ryan Griffen
Hawthorn
Time: 00:30
Years of sustained success and 4 Premierships now mean that Hawthorn are almost back at square one. Some poor trade moves in recent years have also depleted the young talent they've been able to bring onto the list, however they've still managed to unearth some gems, and get a genuine star in Tom Mitchell for a bargain. Despite what looks to be a poor situation for the list, Al Clarkson has shown that he's willing to be ruthless in order to build a superstar team as quickly as possible. Knowing this, they won't be down and out for long.
[b]Bona Fide Stars[/b]
Tom Mitchell, Jack Gunston
[b]Rising Stars[/b]
Ryan Burton
Fading Stars
Jarryd Roughead, Paul Puopolo, Shaun Burgoyne, Cyril Rioli
Melbourne
Time: 20:00
The pressure is on Simon Goodwin and his men in 2018. On paper they now seem to have all the tools to be a genuine threat in the comp, but poor discipline and a tendency to lose the games they shouldn't has meant they still haven't experienced finals action in over a decade. Hopefully using the Bulldogs and Richmond as motivation, they'll see that a few minor adjustments are all that stands between long term irrelevance and the ultimate success.
Bona Fide Stars
Jesse Hogan, Jack Viney, Jake Lever, Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver
Rising Stars
Christian Petracca, Oscar McDonald
Fading Stars
Jordan Lewis
North Melbourne
Time: 00:05
Perhaps the most irrelevant club in the AFL, there is literally nothing that excites me about North Melbourne. The perennial underachiever, seemingly content to have made a couple of unexpected preliminary finals. They thought their Premiership window was open and topped up on ageing players from other clubs without success. In 2017 they had their opportunity to shed some players from their list and try to hit the draft hard, but instead sat on their hands, happy to do the bare minimum. With their sub-par facilities, lack of profile and 'barely there' membership, they're not a club that's going to be able to land any viable Free Agents or wantaway stars from other clubs. With their inability to be ruthless with their list, any trade currency is rapidly dwindling. They also have one of the least inspiring coaches in the AFL. Brad Scott has done nothing to evidence his ability to grow and develop a successful team, North would have been better to cut their losses and experiment with a new, more innovative coach.
Bona Fide Stars
Ben Brown
Rising Stars
Brayden Preuss
Fading Stars
Jarrad Waite, Todd Goldstein
Port Adelaide
Time: 22:00
Went hard at the Free Agency and Trade table in 2017, so it will be interesting to see if that pays off this season. Some exciting young talent at Port and some good leadership depth in their older players. One of those teams that can be a real contender if enough clicks into place. Probably needs a couple of the kids to take another step this season and hope that their new recruits mesh with the team quickly. That coupled with some luck with injuries and Port could be a real powerhouse (pun intended) this year.
Bona Fide Stars
Ollie Wines, Paddy Ryder, Robbie Gray, Chad Wingard, Charlie Dixon
Rising Stars
Sam Powell-Pepper, Darcy Byrne-Jones
Fading Stars
Travis Boak
Richmond
Time: 23:15
I'm still in genuine disbelief that they won the Premiership. They're the Premiership equivalent of Shane Woewodin's Brownlow. But to their credit they've shown that perseverence and a bit of self belief can take you a long way. I don't think back-to-back is an option, but given what happened last season, I'm not willing to discount anything. I do believe though that teams will take them a bit more seriously this year, coupled with a harder draw I think they're more likely to drop down a little in the pecking order.
Bona Fide Stars
Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin, Alex Rance
Rising Stars
Daniel Rioli, Jack Graham,
Fading Stars
None
St Kilda
Time: 19:30
In a similar boat to Melbourne, but I'm a little less bullish about the Saints. They've managed to draft a number of solid players, but perhaps not a lot of elite young players. With the retirements of Riewoldt and Montagna, they're going to need some of the kids to really step up if they want to play finals in 2018. A team that should be exciting, but just isn't for some reason.
Bona Fide Stars
Jack Steven
Rising Stars
Jade Gresham, Jack Billings
Fading Stars
David Armitage
Sydney
Time: 23:45
The dog that just won't die. Regardless of how we think we can rate Sydney, they're the team that always seems to find a way to stay relevant. Through some generous Academy concessions and shrewd drafting/trading, they've managed to keep replenishing their list despite a long period of success. When a team can afford to give away Tom Mitchell for a solitary, lateish first round draft pick, they doing ok for themselves.
Bona Fide Stars
Buddy Franklin, Josh Kennedy, Dan Hannebery, Isaac Heeney, Callum Mills, Luke Parker
Rising Stars
Zak Jones, Tom Papley, Will Hayward
Fading Stars
Jarrad McVeigh, Kurt Tippett, Kieran Jack
West Coast
Time: 06:00
At 6 o'clock but heading backwards. It's hard to imagine that only a few years ago they were playing in a Grand Final, now with an ageing list and very few promising youngsters, they're really relying on the development of their latest draft haul. It was an interesting move by the Eagles to trade out of the first round of next years 'Superdraft' for a number of picks in what was commonly perceived throughout the industry as a particularly shallow draft. But we can never truly know the quality of a draft until years after the fact.
Bona Fide Stars
Eliott Yeo, Andrew Gaff, Jeremy McGovern, Nic Naitanui
Rising Stars
Dom Sheed
Fading Stars
Mark LeCras, Josh Kennedy, Shannon Hurn
Western Bulldogs
Time: 23:15
If 2016 was the year of the Dog, 2017 was a year they would desperately want to forget. The first team to miss the finals the year after winning the Premiership since Hawthron in 2009, nothing seemed to go right on or off field for the Dogs. A bit of disharmony amongt the playing group, and perhaps a bit of diconnect with the coach, the Dogs need to rediscover themselves this year. I think it's completely achievable though. Getting rid of Stringer was the right move, but losing Murphy and Boyd to retirement will mean that more of their young guys need to step up in their leadship. It's time for Tom Liberatore to pull his head in and focus more on his footy and less on his partying. Now that Tom Boyd's chief tormentor has left the club, hopefully he can refocus his energies on football also. He and Josh Shache could form quite a potent forward line if they can get their heads right. A lot of question marks over the Dogs this year, but still very much have a list capable of doing some real damage.
Bona Fide Stars
Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, Luke Dahlhaus
Rising Stars
Josh Dunkley, Toby McLean, Josh Schache
Fading Stars
None
I've added how many star players each team has, in either Bona Fide, Rising or Fading stars. This is where it might get a little subjective, but the way I rate a 'star' is if they'd walk onto any other list in the AFL and carry the same or greater star power. That's why I haven't included players like Marc Murphy who is obviously a star for us, but perhaps wouldn't be if he was in a much stronger midfield (ie would he have just won a B+F if he were playing for GWS). As for the Rising Stars, I haven't included any unproven kids, only those who have played enough games to suggest they're probably going to be elite in their position. There were a couple of players that it was hard to determine if they were Rising or Bona Fide (see Clayton Oliver) but I've gone with gut feel.
Adelaide
Time: 23:50
Should have won the premiership in 2017, should be favourites in 2018. Gibbs in is a big plus and they already have the best forward line in the comp. Jake Lever out hurts them, but they seem to have some decent young depth.
Bona Fide Stars
Eddie Betts, Rory Sloane, Daniel Talia, Matt Crouch
Rising Stars
Mitch McGovern
Fading Stars
None
Brisbane
Time: 11:00
Almost at the point where they have all the pieces in place, now it's just time for them to get games into kids. Their biggest challenge will continue to be retention, although that already looks to be improving. They have Hipwood to build a forward line around and a great bunch of young mids and defenders. Charlie Cameron is a great get, they're probably just 1 KPF short of having all the pieces after Schache left.
Bona Fide Stars
Dayne Zorko
Rising Stars
Alex Witherden, Eric Hipwood, Charlie Cameron, Hugh McCluggage
Fading Stars
Luke Hodge, Stefan Martin
Carlton
Time: 12:00
Similar to Brisbane, Carlton are now in prime position to start their ascent up the ladder. Carlton are probably slightly more advanced given the investment in and retention of gun young players over the past few draft periods. No obvious holes in the list, it's now more an issue of getting games into players and hoping they develop as intended. Now probably at the half way point to a drought breaking Premiership.
Bona Fide Stars
Patrick Cripps, Matthew Kreuzer, Sam Docherty
Rising Stars
Charlie Curnow, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Jacob Weitering, Caleb Marchbank
Fading Stars
Kade Simpson
Collingwood
Time: 13:00
A team that appears to be heading backwards, they have a certain amount of talent on their list, but most of that is in their elder players. They have a wealth of midfield depth but no tall scoring power. They have some of the best small forwards in the comp, but can't keep them on the park. Buckley doesn't seem well placed to get the most out of his players, and to me, they look like they'd be better serviced investing in a complete rebuild while they still have some players with currency. Expect them though to try and buy their way out with some pricey Free Agents this year.
Bona Fide Stars
Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar
Rising Stars
Darcy Moore
Fading Stars
Daniel Wells
Essendon
Time: 20:00
In that weird position where they could go either way this season. Managed to bring in some new players in the trade period for the first time in a long time, but also lost some experienced players through retirement. The drugs saga has knocked them around a bit, so it's hard to get a good read on them. Personally I think they'll go backwards before forwards, but Richmond won the Premiership, so literally anything is possible. Thanks to their drug cheating penalties and resulting poor performance for a couple of seasons, they've managed to pick up some great young players, but they're probably lacking the depth required to go to that next level.
Bona Fide Stars
Zach Merrett, Joe Daniher, Michael Hurley
Rising Stars
Andrew McGrath, Darcy Parish, Orazio Fantasia
Fading Stars
Brendon Goddard
Fremantle
Time: 03:00
Ross the Boss strikes again. As modern history has shown, the greatest coaches know how to build, develop and lead a team of superstars. Ross seems capable of doing only one of those things. He took a Freo team that was on the brink of breaking through and took them to a Grand Final appearance, but when age and injury starting catching up to them, it's become evident that once again he has very few tricks up his sleeve. His major test will come over the next couple of years, now that he's got some high end draft talent onto the list, let's see what he does with them. They're probably a couple more draft/trade periods away from being able to make a proper run up the ladder.
Bona Fide Stars
Nat Fyfe, Lachie Neale, Brad Hill
Rising Stars
Sean Darcy
Fading Stars
David Mundy, Aaron Sandilands
Geelong
Time: 22:30
Luck with injury will make or break Geelong this season. They have all the talent needed to be a genuine Premiership contender, but lack in depth if anything were to happen to their preferred 22. The fitness and form of Tom Hawkins will largely dictate their success, as their KPF depth is probably their weakest link. They've been shrewd in the trade period, bring in some solid talent to beef up thier list, but their consistent success over the past decade has meant that they don't have a lot of elite young talent coming through, if any at all.
Bona Fide Stars
Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Mitch Duncan
Rising Stars
None
Fading Stars
Gary Ablett Jr, Harry Taylor, Tom Hawkins
Gold Coast
Time: 04:00
Gold Coast are in an interesting situation, they've lost a lot of senior talent over the past couple of seasons, but as a result they've been able to hit the draft pretty hard. Their success is reliant on two things; retention and development. If Stewy Dew can develop these highly rated youngsters and retain their star players (namely Tom Lynch this season) then they can join the likes of Brisbane and Carlton as one of the exciting youngs teams of the comp. I wouldn't want to be trading out any more #2 draft picks though.
Bona Fide Stars
Tom Lynch, Steven May
Rising Stars
Jack Martin, Kade Kolodjashnij, Lachie Weller, Peter Wright, Ben Ainsworth
Fading Stars
Pearce Hanley
GWS
Time: 23:00
Perhaps the biggest enigma in the comp, on paper GWS should be dominating their rivals each week, but for some reason this team of theoretical superstars just can't mesh. They definitely have all the tools in place, so if something clicks this season the Premiership could very well be theirs. Not convinced that Leon Cameron is the coach they need either.
Bona Fide Stars
Josh Kelly, Jeremy Cameron, Dylan Shiel, Callan Ward
Rising Stars
Jacob Hopper, Tim Taranto
Fading Stars
Brett Deledio, Heath Shaw, Ryan Griffen
Hawthorn
Time: 00:30
Years of sustained success and 4 Premierships now mean that Hawthorn are almost back at square one. Some poor trade moves in recent years have also depleted the young talent they've been able to bring onto the list, however they've still managed to unearth some gems, and get a genuine star in Tom Mitchell for a bargain. Despite what looks to be a poor situation for the list, Al Clarkson has shown that he's willing to be ruthless in order to build a superstar team as quickly as possible. Knowing this, they won't be down and out for long.
[b]Bona Fide Stars[/b]
Tom Mitchell, Jack Gunston
[b]Rising Stars[/b]
Ryan Burton
Fading Stars
Jarryd Roughead, Paul Puopolo, Shaun Burgoyne, Cyril Rioli
Melbourne
Time: 20:00
The pressure is on Simon Goodwin and his men in 2018. On paper they now seem to have all the tools to be a genuine threat in the comp, but poor discipline and a tendency to lose the games they shouldn't has meant they still haven't experienced finals action in over a decade. Hopefully using the Bulldogs and Richmond as motivation, they'll see that a few minor adjustments are all that stands between long term irrelevance and the ultimate success.
Bona Fide Stars
Jesse Hogan, Jack Viney, Jake Lever, Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver
Rising Stars
Christian Petracca, Oscar McDonald
Fading Stars
Jordan Lewis
North Melbourne
Time: 00:05
Perhaps the most irrelevant club in the AFL, there is literally nothing that excites me about North Melbourne. The perennial underachiever, seemingly content to have made a couple of unexpected preliminary finals. They thought their Premiership window was open and topped up on ageing players from other clubs without success. In 2017 they had their opportunity to shed some players from their list and try to hit the draft hard, but instead sat on their hands, happy to do the bare minimum. With their sub-par facilities, lack of profile and 'barely there' membership, they're not a club that's going to be able to land any viable Free Agents or wantaway stars from other clubs. With their inability to be ruthless with their list, any trade currency is rapidly dwindling. They also have one of the least inspiring coaches in the AFL. Brad Scott has done nothing to evidence his ability to grow and develop a successful team, North would have been better to cut their losses and experiment with a new, more innovative coach.
Bona Fide Stars
Ben Brown
Rising Stars
Brayden Preuss
Fading Stars
Jarrad Waite, Todd Goldstein
Port Adelaide
Time: 22:00
Went hard at the Free Agency and Trade table in 2017, so it will be interesting to see if that pays off this season. Some exciting young talent at Port and some good leadership depth in their older players. One of those teams that can be a real contender if enough clicks into place. Probably needs a couple of the kids to take another step this season and hope that their new recruits mesh with the team quickly. That coupled with some luck with injuries and Port could be a real powerhouse (pun intended) this year.
Bona Fide Stars
Ollie Wines, Paddy Ryder, Robbie Gray, Chad Wingard, Charlie Dixon
Rising Stars
Sam Powell-Pepper, Darcy Byrne-Jones
Fading Stars
Travis Boak
Richmond
Time: 23:15
I'm still in genuine disbelief that they won the Premiership. They're the Premiership equivalent of Shane Woewodin's Brownlow. But to their credit they've shown that perseverence and a bit of self belief can take you a long way. I don't think back-to-back is an option, but given what happened last season, I'm not willing to discount anything. I do believe though that teams will take them a bit more seriously this year, coupled with a harder draw I think they're more likely to drop down a little in the pecking order.
Bona Fide Stars
Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin, Alex Rance
Rising Stars
Daniel Rioli, Jack Graham,
Fading Stars
None
St Kilda
Time: 19:30
In a similar boat to Melbourne, but I'm a little less bullish about the Saints. They've managed to draft a number of solid players, but perhaps not a lot of elite young players. With the retirements of Riewoldt and Montagna, they're going to need some of the kids to really step up if they want to play finals in 2018. A team that should be exciting, but just isn't for some reason.
Bona Fide Stars
Jack Steven
Rising Stars
Jade Gresham, Jack Billings
Fading Stars
David Armitage
Sydney
Time: 23:45
The dog that just won't die. Regardless of how we think we can rate Sydney, they're the team that always seems to find a way to stay relevant. Through some generous Academy concessions and shrewd drafting/trading, they've managed to keep replenishing their list despite a long period of success. When a team can afford to give away Tom Mitchell for a solitary, lateish first round draft pick, they doing ok for themselves.
Bona Fide Stars
Buddy Franklin, Josh Kennedy, Dan Hannebery, Isaac Heeney, Callum Mills, Luke Parker
Rising Stars
Zak Jones, Tom Papley, Will Hayward
Fading Stars
Jarrad McVeigh, Kurt Tippett, Kieran Jack
West Coast
Time: 06:00
At 6 o'clock but heading backwards. It's hard to imagine that only a few years ago they were playing in a Grand Final, now with an ageing list and very few promising youngsters, they're really relying on the development of their latest draft haul. It was an interesting move by the Eagles to trade out of the first round of next years 'Superdraft' for a number of picks in what was commonly perceived throughout the industry as a particularly shallow draft. But we can never truly know the quality of a draft until years after the fact.
Bona Fide Stars
Eliott Yeo, Andrew Gaff, Jeremy McGovern, Nic Naitanui
Rising Stars
Dom Sheed
Fading Stars
Mark LeCras, Josh Kennedy, Shannon Hurn
Western Bulldogs
Time: 23:15
If 2016 was the year of the Dog, 2017 was a year they would desperately want to forget. The first team to miss the finals the year after winning the Premiership since Hawthron in 2009, nothing seemed to go right on or off field for the Dogs. A bit of disharmony amongt the playing group, and perhaps a bit of diconnect with the coach, the Dogs need to rediscover themselves this year. I think it's completely achievable though. Getting rid of Stringer was the right move, but losing Murphy and Boyd to retirement will mean that more of their young guys need to step up in their leadship. It's time for Tom Liberatore to pull his head in and focus more on his footy and less on his partying. Now that Tom Boyd's chief tormentor has left the club, hopefully he can refocus his energies on football also. He and Josh Shache could form quite a potent forward line if they can get their heads right. A lot of question marks over the Dogs this year, but still very much have a list capable of doing some real damage.
Bona Fide Stars
Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, Luke Dahlhaus
Rising Stars
Josh Dunkley, Toby McLean, Josh Schache
Fading Stars
None
