SSM Plebiscite

[flyboy77]

Why?

NSW holds more right wing factions and fundamentalist religious groups than any other state. Some of them are quite large like the Exclusive Bretheren, or West Sydney's large Islamic population.

I fear that the 58%-42% result in NSW will mean this is far from resolved yet, I think the sh1te is yet to hit the fan!

In Blaxland, 74% voted no.

In Melbourne Ports (my turf), 82% voted yes!

[Navy Maven]

I was starting to get nervous about moving from Brunswick East out to Bacchus Marsh, but my new peeps had one of the highest Yes votes (second highest rural Yes vote) in the state at 70%. Very happy camper right now 

[cookie2]

Pretty much as expected. Now it's up to parliament to get on with it with no filibustering!

[flyboy77]

https://marriagesurvey.abs.gov.au/result..._final.xls

[LP]

In Blaxland, 74% voted no.

In Melbourne Ports (my turf), 82% voted yes!

Exactly, there is a lot of rubbish spoken in the media, but reality is voting is mostly along economic and religious grounds as it does in a normal election. Was the voting return low in the Bankstown region?

If I recall the Bankstown region has one of Australia's highest percentages of residents who speak a language other than English at home. Something like 40% of residents are either speaking Arabic or Vietnamese at home as their first language.

Left wing moderates like Waleed Aly would have you believe that a dominant Arabic speaking community's voting demographic is the same as the any other, but the truth is far from that! Aly himself refused to declare his vote publicly, which almost certainly means it followed religious grounds as a "No" vote. I have no problem with that as it is his right which I defend, but I am not comfortable when he allows himself to be considered by many on the "Yes' side as one of their champions!

The Right Wing is full of Christian crusaders, like Andrew Bolt, they often believe themselves to be moderate! Their demographic is also likely to be heavily influenced by religion and wealth.

I read a report somewhere that claimed the more powerless a voter feels, usually due to economic issues, more more likely you were to vote "No"! That would also be an issue in Bankstown or similar regions. I'm sure aspects of the "No" vote campaign played to that very perspective.

Not sure why Calwell and Bruce had such high "no" votes in Vic(Above 50%), bit nothing like two or three divisions in NSW that were above 60% "No". I had expected some redneck voting in Qld, and I am presently surprised!

It seems NSW is the most divided state in Australia.

[DJC]

Why?

NSW holds more right wing factions and fundamentalist religious groups than any other state. Some of them are quite large like the Exclusive Bretheren, or West Sydney's large Islamic population.

I fear that the 58%-42% result in NSW will mean this is far from resolved yet, I think the sh1te is yet to hit the fan!

75% for in Abbott's electorate!

I'm not so sure that NSW does have more right wing and fundamentalist groups.  However, it does have one of the longest running gay rights events.  Muslims make up just over 2% of the Australian population and 50% of them live in NSW.  That's hardly enough to make any impact on the result of the poll.  The Archbishop of Sydney's strident opposition may have had some impact but I suspect it simply reflects the conservative views of rural and regional NSW and pockets of the metropolitan area.

Anyway, the government has just spent $122M on an opinion poll that confirmed what the opinion polls were telling us 

[Navy Maven]

Not sure why Calwell and Bruce had such high "no" votes in Vic(Above 50%), bit nothing like two or three divisions in NSW that were above 60% "No". I had expected some redneck voting in Qld, and I am presently surprised!

Calwell and Bruce are both heavy migrant areas. You already hit the nail on the head with Islamic voters, and Calwell comprises all of Dallas, Coolaroo, Broadmeadows etc, plus areas like Taylors Lakes and Keilor with high proportions of European influence. All in all, not surprising at the No votes there.

[DJC]

Interestingly, all National Party electorates voted 'yes' and several of the highest 'no' vote electorates are Labor seats.

I reckon the poll will provide many PhD topics 

[LP]

Calwell and Bruce are both heavy migrant areas. You already hit the nail on the head with Islamic voters, and Calwell comprises all of Dallas, Coolaroo, Broadmeadows etc, plus areas like Taylors Lakes and Keilor with high proportions of European influence. All in all, not surprising at the No votes there.

Calwell perhaps, but that area has a widely varying economic demographic despite the other effects.

But Bruce, those high migrant populations are full of temporary residents, etc., etc., many of them didn't get to vote. Other areas like Glen Waverley and Wheelers Hill are wealthy with heavy Asian influence, the stronger "No" vote seems odd. It may be the average age of voters in those areas, there are many pensioners.

[Lods]

Anyone get the feeling this result may be close.
My Facebook friend list is pretty much a cross section,
I have some extreme religious folk and some folks with strong left wing views and it's breaking about 50-50
One of the interesting aspects is a group of Labor stalwarts who also have a strong Christian background who are voting NO.

Just quoting myself here...
The regionality of the plebiscite seems to have had a big influence of our perceptions of how it would turn out.

I thought Kruddler was being wildly optimistic with some of his predictions but he was probably in one of those high '80+' Yes electorates.
My own electorate was about the 60-40.
The Labor folk I referenced above were from the Liverpool region where strong Labor electorates voted emphatically NO