Goaltracker

[Baggers]

The one thing that I would say about Cunninghams goal.

He took posession in the centre square, and handballed forward to either of Cripps or Gibbs, and then followed up by running hard into forward fifty to then finish from 35.

That might have got him over the line.  If you watch the footage, and keep your eyes peeled you will see him start and finish that forward thrust.

I still liked Docherty's better, but maybe its reward for effort...  No harm in that at all!

Yes, I did notice that and it's exactly what Cuningham needs to focus on... stay focussed and stay in the contest... when he gets the aggott he's very good with decision and disposal, even elite with decision and disposal. Reckon you're probably right.

[sydneybluesfan]

After round 10

2016

Goals 105 Behinds 100-730 (points against 901)
Percentage 81 %

2017(Target 224-224-1568)

Goals 107 Behinds 86-728 (points against 923)
Percentage 78.9 %

Goalkickers (Target 2016- Wright 22)

Casboult 17
Wright 13
Silvagni 8
Gibbs 8

On a positive note…we are more accurate this year.

I was pretty sure we were going to slip behind our 2016 goal total after Round 10.
In 2016 we scored 16 goals in Round 10  and I thought that might be hard to match but a reasonable effort  saw us with 15 on the weekend to just keep our noses in front of last year’s total…but not by much.

On the individual front Casboult is closing in on Wright’s 2016 total. ;D

That's a great analysis. IMO it is still very concerning [and scary] that we have made ZERO improvement to our scoring and goal kickers over the past 12 months.

I have banged on about this a bit, but I feel that many are missing the simple fact that we have made no progress in scoring power over the past 2.5 years. We are dead last in points for this year - we are simply never going to win games of football consistently and climb the ladder until we can improve our scoring by around 30% - 40% from where it has been stuck for a very long time.

Like a lot of others I see potential in some of the young players, but history also shows forwards, especially tall forwards, will take 3 years before they make a consistent impact and can kick 40-50+in a season. If we get Kerr and Harry into the team now, we are a still a long way away from having a top 8 scoring capability.

We can improve the defence relatively quickly [and we have with Doc, Marchbank, Plowman and Williamson], and the midfield is where we already have our 4 best players. Of course we need more quality midfield depth, but our forward line today is effectively a rabble still, led by a 27yo who will average 2 goals a game at best. All of the youngsters we have rolled through there so far this year have shown cameo's at best.

I think we need to start playing Kerr and McKay as a priority, and give KJ one last roll of the dice for a few games to see if he can show something. In the off season we need to recruit an established goal kicker and an experienced mid sized midfielder / forward to build our future forward line around - just like how we have built our backline around the experience of Simmo and Rowe [and now ACOS]. Remember our last successful drafting a KPF was Josh Kennedy in 2005!!

If we don't change something significant then we are doomed to keep getting the same scoring results as we have for the last 3.5 years. The idea that it will just 'naturally improve' has clearly been shown for a long time now to be a fallacy.

Rant over.......

[PaulP]

Our highest scoring seasons since 2008 have been 2009 (2270 points for) and 2011 (2225 point for). During this time the forward line mainstays were generally Waite, Walks and a couple of the 3 aimgos. It's the best forward line we've had for ages, but I wonder whether coaching mindset plays a significant part as well ?

[Thryleon]

That's a great analysis. IMO it is still very concerning [and scary] that we have made ZERO improvement to our scoring and goal kickers over the past 12 months.

I have banged on about this a bit, but I feel that many are missing the simple fact that we have made no progress in scoring power over the past 2.5 years. We are dead last in points for this year - we are simply never going to win games of football consistently and climb the ladder until we can improve our scoring by around 30% - 40% from where it has been stuck for a very long time.

Like a lot of others I see potential in some of the young players, but history also shows forwards, especially tall forwards, will take 3 years before they make a consistent impact and can kick 40-50+in a season. If we get Kerr and Harry into the team now, we are a still a long way away from having a top 8 scoring capability.

We can improve the defence relatively quickly [and we have with Doc, Marchbank, Plowman and Williamson], and the midfield is where we already have our 4 best players. Of course we need more quality midfield depth, but our forward line today is effectively a rabble still, led by a 27yo who will average 2 goals a game at best. All of the youngsters we have rolled through there so far this year have shown cameo's at best.

I think we need to start playing Kerr and McKay as a priority, and give KJ one last roll of the dice for a few games to see if he can show something. In the off season we need to recruit an established goal kicker and an experienced mid sized midfielder / forward to build our future forward line around - just like how we have built our backline around the experience of Simmo and Rowe [and now ACOS]. Remember our last successful drafting a KPF was Josh Kennedy in 2005!!

If we don't change something significant then we are doomed to keep getting the same scoring results as we have for the last 3.5 years. The idea that it will just 'naturally improve' has clearly been shown for a long time now to be a fallacy.

Rant over.......

We need to be wary of how we view these things.

Statitistically we may score less or even with where we were, but is that consistent across the entire competition??

We may have improved to be where we are now relative to the rest of the competition and likewise their numbers might be different.  We dont know that answer at this stage as its a bit early to do anything but project where we will finish and each season will have its own nuances with some teams blowing out in some circumstances and not others.

What I estimate will be a factor, is that scores for and against on average will be lower in 2017 across the entire competition which means that if we are scoring at a similar rate to last season, then we have improved.


I think any attempt to look at totals ignores what the competition is doing, and any rule changes implemented can sometimes make big differences to teams ability to score such as rotation, sub rule, etc.

[maxm68]

Adelaide are flag favourites.... what are they doing ???  answer is.... kicking Goaaaaaaaaalllsss

[PaulP]

The rules are trying to make the game faster, more high scoring and more of an offensive spectacle.

The Crows and GWS are showing the way - more mobility, more flexibility, more fitness / running ability, greater speed of leg and greater speed of ball movement

[sydneybluesfan]

We need to be wary of how we view these things.

Statitistically we may score less or even with where we were, but is that consistent across the entire competition??

We may have improved to be where we are now relative to the rest of the competition and likewise their numbers might be different.  We dont know that answer at this stage as its a bit early to do anything but project where we will finish and each season will have its own nuances with some teams blowing out in some circumstances and not others.

What I estimate will be a factor, is that scores for and against on average will be lower in 2017 across the entire competition which means that if we are scoring at a similar rate to last season, then we have improved.


I think any attempt to look at totals ignores what the competition is doing, and any rule changes implemented can sometimes make big differences to teams ability to score such as rotation, sub rule, etc.

I'm not quite sure I totally get the logic, given the hypotheses about scoring rates going down isn't correct - scoring rates overall hasn't changed much for the top teams [it generally doesn't move more than a goal year to year], except that Adelaide are scoring 20% more than the highest team this time last year! They score 50 points more than us per game.

We were third last in scoring last year [behind Essendon and Dockers], but both those teams have improved by 5 and 3 goals per game vs last year. We are exactly the same, and are therefore last this year - so by being the same as last year we are relatively worse compared to the comp.

All historical analysis will tell you that a side needs to be scoring around 13 goals minimum per game [around 90 pts] to make the 8. That's a 'par score', and has been for some time. As mentioned the rules are all focused on increasing scoring rates. We haven't scored anything like this since 2013 [when we finished 9th]. 

The simple fact is that if you don't average over 90 pts you will lose more than you win. We have scored 70 points on average for the last 75 games and won 21 - roughly 1 in 4. This ratio and our ladder position won't change until find [recruit, trade, develop] more consistent quality goal kickers than what we have right now.

The greatest knock on our recruiters has been our total failure to find A grade KPF's or other goal kickers - we have successfully recruited 2 in 20 years [Fev and JK] and 2 mid size / small forwards [Waite & Betts] in the same period. We got rid of all 4 of them and have never looked like finding even half decent replacements for any of them! 

[Thryleon]

The rules are trying to make the game faster, more high scoring and more of an offensive spectacle.

The Crows and GWS are showing the way - more mobility, more flexibility, more fitness / running ability, greater speed of leg and greater speed of ball movement

Agree, but that doesn't necessarily correlate to more scoring for whatever reason just less stoppages and more end to end action where the last kick entering fifty is a turnover.

Sound familiar??



What sets GWS and Adelaide apart is not necessarily their ability to score easily but the rate in which they score efficiently!


@sydneybluesfan

You cant make that assertion based on scores per week.  Its a biased result.  We had played different teams to now, and those teams are scoring differently than they did last season.  North Smashed us last year, and did it easily.  This time it turned into an arm wrestle and we almost got the chocolates.

[Lods]

The purpose of the thread was really no more than to track the progress to beat the 224 team total goals and Wright's individual total of 22 last year.

But to consider that after 10 rounds of football there is only 2 points between our 2016 and 2017 totals is pretty fascinating.

The perception that our defence is vastly improved yet we've had more points kicked against us this year is also a strange result.

Yep... different opposition, different weather conditions, a difference in play across the league, a whole heap of factors impact... so drawing conclusions musty be taken with a bit of care.
I still find the results after 10 rounds interesting.

[PaulP]

Agree, but that doesn't necessarily correlate to more scoring for whatever reason just less stoppages and more end to end action where the last kick entering fifty is a turnover.

Sound familiar??



What sets GWS and Adelaide apart is not necessarily their ability to score easily but the rate in which they score efficiently!

......................................

Some teams simply have more scoring ability than others - whether this is because of the forwards, better mids, better or more attack-orientated coaching  etc., I'm not sure. In 1995, we scored 2357 points for, so even though the rules have an influence, I think the quality of your cattle and the coach's ideas about footy are of greater influence.

The point sbf makes is fair enough - the percentage and points for of top 4 teams is pretty consistent over many, many years. As I previously highlighted, last season was an exception, and other exceptions were the Ross Lyon / Paul Roos Saints and Swans teams, also as previously discussed. Generally speaking, top 4 teams average about 100-110 points for, with percentage of between 110-120

For whatever reason, we have been stuck in traffic for the last few seasons.

EDIT : the Malthouse 2010 Pies team also scored 2349 points for, so even Mr Defence himself likes an offensive spectacle.