The Hard Road To The Premiership

[Gointocarlton]

Im like Paul, I like Levi, he's a good fella but I think the sooner we move from him the better. Sadly I don't think he will ever learn to kick goals, especially under pressure. Ive stated before perhaps he should be tried as a defender, what's there to lose? But it would need to be a fast trial as I think his time has just about run out. Having said all that, the caveat on it all is that it is purely the opinion of outsider looking in, someone who knows nothing about footy compared to those at the helm. Perhaps there are other things he does well that warrant persisting with him. Perhaps Sav has weaved his magic on him and he will win the Coleman medal. ;D

[LoveNavy]

Perhaps Sav has weaved his magic on him and he will win the Coleman medal. ;D

Or... Perhaps the Coleman comes to us via another avenue. Perhaps Kennedy's coming home. A marque player?? A KP marque player??? if I was inclined to have a flutter, I bet the odds of the Coleman coming to CFC would be long and longer in those two scenarios.

I think we'll struggle in the goal scoring department again this year. The end result of course, will be a high draft pick. Not all bad. Patience grasshoppers.

[Amers]

I have no idea who is going to kick our goals this year, but I am expecting improvement, in this area, as much as I am percentage and in wins and losses, maybe not much but a little.

So I will be excited to see who steps up and surprises me and announces themselves as a goal kicking forward that we will be able to rely on moving into the future.

[Gointocarlton]

Perhaps Sav has weaved his magic on him and he will win the Coleman medal. ;D

Or... Perhaps the Coleman comes to us via another avenue. Perhaps Kennedy's coming home. A marque player?? A KP marque player??? if I was inclined to have a flutter, I bet the odds of the Coleman coming to CFC would be long and longer in those two scenarios.

I think we'll struggle in the goal scoring department again this year. The end result of course, will be a high draft pick. Not all bad. Patience grasshoppers.

Maybe. But on Kennedy, he is home unfortunately for us. He loved the Blues but we are distant memory for him. A KPF marquee player would be nice, lets just see how the year plays out. I know if we raid GWS, it wont be the General as he has signed a new deal. Cameron maybe although I am not entirely sold on him as the main man. He looked like he was going to take the comp by storm and since then has done two tenths of FA. Has he been injured and is he too fragile perhaps? There isnt much of him.

[sydneybluesfan]

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5...rmat=1500w

For those who are interested here is the graphs showing the relationships between scoring shots and winning rate. We are actually an outlier on this graph due to our poor defence over the period meaning we needed more scoring shots to win games than most other teams.

This is 16 years of recent data and it held true last year. On average, to win 50% of your games [11 per year] you need to average around 25 shots per game. If you have less than 20 you are unlikely to win more than 4 games per year. We averaged 18 in the back half of the year, so if the aim is to win 8-9 games this year we would need to improve this to around 23 shots, or a 30% improvement on our recent trend. That equates to roughly 60 more goals than we scored last year.

That's a big improvement delta in the absence of a proven KPF goal kicker, and realistically i can't see it happening when relying on 2nd year draftees with an average of about 10 games each to their name.

My personal view is also that until you get a few decent, smart forwards in your team your forward entries are usually going to be terrible. Opp defences these days are very fit, well drilled and organised, and we are very easy to set up against because we don't have multiple marking threats and players who can draw opponents away from the ball. The obvious example of this is Hawthorn, who have a great balance of athletic talls, mid sized marking players [Gunston] and smaller players [Rioli, Bruest, Puopolo, Shields]. 

[Lods]

So I will be excited to see who steps up and surprises me and announces themselves as a goal kicking forward that we will be able to rely on moving into the future.

That's how it sometimes happens...as the season progresses one or two players will step up, exceed expectations and become a key target.
We can't see it now...but at the end of the year you look back and see it was there all the time.

We don't know who.
It may be a small forward
It may be one of the big youngsters.
It may be one of the backmen moved forward.
It might be the guy who suddenly realises his potential and gets a bit more accurate
It may be one of the guys who've been languishing in the reserves accumulating experience who suddenly clicks.
Or best of all it may be a combination of several.

...and if that's a bit "pie in the sky" thinking I don't think it's any less plausible than a stagnating forward line that fails to kick 224 goals with a main goalkicker netting less than 22 for the season.

[sydneybluesfan]

That's how it sometimes happens...as the season progresses one or two players will step up, exceed expectations and become a key target.
We can't see it now...but at the end of the year you look back and see it was there all the time.

We don't know who.
It may be a small forward
It may be one of the big youngsters.
It may be one of the backmen moved forward.
It might be the guy who suddenly realises his potential and gets a bit more accurate
It may be one of the guys who've been languishing in the reserves accumulating experience who suddenly clicks.
Or best of all it may be a combination of several.

...and if that's a bit "pie in the sky" thinking I don't think it's any less plausible than a stagnating forward line that fails to kick 224 goals with a main goalkicker netting less than 22 for the season.

Don't get me wrong -  I hope your right and obviously we need a combination of improvement, especially given that the bulk of our forward line is so young. The only way is up for most of them as McKay, Kerr, Pickett, SOJ and Curnow have played a combined total of 14 games and kicked 12 goals. But this has to be the nucleus of our forward line for the future.

My main point is we have the equal worst [statistically] and most inexperienced forward line in the league. It is extremely rare for a 1st or 2nd year player to average more than one goal per game, and Levi has averaged 1 goal per year over his 70 game career. At best he might break out to 30-35, but that would be a massive jump based on the evidence so far.

So the most probable outcome is we will average low 20's in scoring shots, and therefore have 4-6 wins - but hopefully with a properly functioning forward line starting to appear in the back half of the year which we can build on in 2018 with the recruitment of an established goal kicking forward to add to the mix.

[flyboy77]

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5...rmat=1500w

For those who are interested here is the graphs showing the relationships between scoring shots and winning rate. We are actually an outlier on this graph due to our poor defence over the period meaning we needed more scoring shots to win games than most other teams.

This is 16 years of recent data and it held true last year. On average, to win 50% of your games [11 per year] you need to average around 25 shots per game. If you have less than 20 you are unlikely to win more than 4 games per year. We averaged 18 in the back half of the year, so if the aim is to win 8-9 games this year we would need to improve this to around 23 shots, or a 30% improvement on our recent trend. That equates to roughly 60 more goals than we scored last year.

That's a big improvement delta in the absence of a proven KPF goal kicker, and realistically i can't see it happening when relying on 2nd year draftees with an average of about 10 games each to their name.

My personal view is also that until you get a few decent, smart forwards in your team your forward entries are usually going to be terrible. Opp defences these days are very fit, well drilled and organised, and we are very easy to set up against because we don't have multiple marking threats and players who can draw opponents away from the ball. The obvious example of this is Hawthorn, who have a great balance of athletic talls, mid sized marking players [Gunston] and smaller players [Rioli, Bruest, Puopolo, Shields].

StATS can be such BS, can't they.

You say, oh a 30% INCREASE IN SCORING SHOTS (18 to 23).

Looking at that another way, that is only 1.25 extra scoring shots a quarter which is SFA if your midfield is winning more battles than not.

[PaulP]

The stats do paint a picture though, especially when a look through several seasons reveals the same or similar patterns. This creates a reasonably sized sample space, to the extent that the points sbf makes are, IMO, valid.

No team has a 100% goal conversion rate from f50 entries. Nowhere near it. It's a numbers game. You need 100 entries to kick 20 goals (for example). If you're not generating a surplus of F50 entries, you're behind the 8 ball to begin with. And if your F50 entries are shallow and generate too many difficult scoring shots, you're even further behind. And if you don't have much confidence in the guy you're kicking to (even subconsciously), you look for other, perhaps more difficult options, and on it goes.

[sydneybluesfan]

StATS can be such BS, can't they.

You say, oh a 30% INCREASE IN SCORING SHOTS (18 to 23).

Looking at that another way, that is only 1.25 extra scoring shots a quarter which is SFA if your midfield is winning more battles than not.

That is true - it doesn't sound like much in isolation. But when you are only having 4-5 per quarter [over the last 44 games], an extra 1.25 is still proportionally a very big increase!

And you are also right that everyone 'picks' stats to support their view - it's human nature to do it. I just like to put a little factual rigor around my comments & opinions, but that doesn't make them any more [or less] valid than anybody else's.

I am optimistic that we are on the right path, and extremely hopeful that we can improve quickly and become a genuine contender sooner rather than later. But I am realistic enough to believe that this year, based on probability and the stats, we are only going to win 4-6 games and finish lower than last year.