Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

[Peter Brady]

Trump has accepted the Mexican President's invitation to meet with him in Mexico.  He's going there tomorrow, he says.  The circus continues...

Don't go Donald
There will be no quarter
Remember the Alamo!

[cookie2]

Don't go Donald
There will be no quarter
Remember the Alamo!

Will they play Degüello (Slit throat ) for him?

[Mav]

The national polls have tightened somewhat - Clinton's 10% advantage in the wake of the DNC convention has halved.  That's not surprising as there was always going to be a short-term bounce and a 5% advantage is pretty handy.

Clinton, however, has expanded her lead in battleground states over that same period and that's far more important than the national vote.  Next Monday is Labor Day in the US and is widely regarded as the point at which the vote becomes hard to shift.

I still think the Zika Virus will become a major issue.  It seems to be an ideal topic to raise at the first debate at the end of September.  You'd hope that the moderators won't allow Trump to get away with saying he'll kill all the mosquitos on day 1 in his presidency.  No doubt Hillary won't let him off that easily.

The Zika story is like a sci-fi horror show.  The bad news keeps on coming.  Scientists now believe it stays in semen for 6 months.  Infected mosquitos pass the virus on in the eggs they lay, so wiping out adults doesn't stop an epidemic.  Testing on rats has shown that it can damage adult brains by attacking a type of brain cell which grows into neurons.  If this occurs also in humans, it may damage memory and learning in a similar way to Alzheimer's.  The link to Guillain-Barré Syndrome grows stronger.  Damage to foetuses and babies leads to a much wider array of conditions than microcephaly, from destruction of brain matter to scarred retinas and optic nerves and restrictions in mobility.  It also seems that it can cause disabilities in babies after apparently healthy births. 

Scientists have now found the Zika Virus in 3 populations of mosquitos in Florida.  As scientists believe that tests currently produce a significant percentage of false negatives, they believe the virus is widespread now.

Florida is a battleground State and the concern of Floridians can be deduced from the stridency of Marco Rubio on the issue.  Ordinarily, Republicans aren't supportive of Federal intervention in health matters but Rubio has called on Congress to reconvene as a matter of urgency to throw money at this problem.

Hillary is well-placed to lead on this issue.  Increasing the Federal health budget rather than throwing money at finding and deporting undocumented immigrants and pouring billions into a border wall is right up her alley.  It also brings to the fore the good work that Planned Parenthood does for women given that Congressional Republicans hope to tie increased funding for the fight against Zika to sidelining Planned Parenthood.  To date, Trump has been happy to say it's a State issue.  Will continuing down that line cost him Florida?

[LP]

It's hard to trust the public Zika debate now, media are distorting figures because it rates. In reality there have been wildly varying reports from authorities.

While I generally trust scientists, I do not trust lawyers or administrators, and those less ethical types now know funding is associated with the Zika threat, it's in their interests to paint global doom as they get financially rewarded for it.  The more money that pours into Zika the more alleged "connections" will surface, soon it will be the cause of Hitler, ADHD and Terrorism. I had a big debate/argument at CSIRO recently about this, as I felt scientists were sitting on their hands allowing hysterical debate as it brought them funding. They were not pushing the policy line, but they were not vocal in debunking the fear mongers either!

In regards to the wildly varying reports, the CDC itself recently tested about 5000 suspected Zika related health cases, about 70% of those were dismissed immediately as mis-diagnosis leaving 1500 suspects for more detailed investigation. The second round of more in depth testing eliminated another 1200 as markers initially accepted as a health issue were shown to be statistically indeterminate, they couldn't tell if someone was health affected or not so subjective is the assessment. That left about 300 to be explained that had clear signs of a health issue, of the 300 only 6 had been exposed to a Zika infection! That turns out to be equal or less than the normal rate of birth defects for such diseases which in the USA runs between 8 to 15 in every 10000, if ZIka's effects were clear and real that numbers should have risen by some statistically significant amount. Looking at 5000 cases is a very significant study.

The situation is even worse now, in the USA IT companies are getting on board to use "Big Data" in a cure for Zika and are being funded heavily. It's all become a money issue, which is sad because the real labs researching Zika have been around for over a decade and now instead of being financially boosted they have to compete with people for the same money, many of those competitors are selling snake oil!

For example last month there was a global story circulating claiming epidemiological modeling showed up to 90 Million people would be infected by Zika within about 5 years. But those numbers are based on a study that had deliberately selected the worst case scenario for every variable, weather, mosquitos, travel, etc., etc., and then the report deliberately avoided discussing the potential health effects of that many Zika cases. Using the same protocols as this Zika estimate a worst case scenario for climate change apparently suggests that 1.2 Billion will die by 2030.

I understand why people are scared, but it's become almost as bad as the Anti-Vaccination debate.

An estimate mid-last month calculated that there was US$4.5M being spent for every confirmed Zika case, a significant order of magnitude more than diseases like Dengue or Chikungunya which have equal or even worse effects!

Humans are awful at estimating risks, it's an inherited trait that is hypothesized as the Keep Alive mistaken belief. In a nutshell, if you hear the grass rustling and think it's a Lion you'll run away and survive even if it's the wind, but if you hear the grass rustling and thinks it's the wind you're a dead person if it's a lion. The same mechanism is used to explain why so many people are so gullible, apparently we want to believe because on evolutionary time scales it has kept us alive.

[Mav]

Hmmm ... strange how you claim scientific studies are showing that the threat of Zika has been greatly exaggerated at the same time as you say scientists are riding the wave of hysteria to obtain extra funding. In particular, you say the CDC has slashed away at the number of confirmed cases and that suggests they are a credible institution in your eyes.  But the CDC is a very strong proponent of urgent funding of the fight against The Zika Virus.  Maybe it's a Jeckyl and Hyde thing.

Seems to me you're fighting a rearguard action since your argument that there was no link between Zika and microcephaly bit the dust.  But if you want an argument over the science, best you start another thread.  This one is about the Presidential Election.  It doesn't matter what the true position regarding Zika is.  The question is how voters will react.  Railing against the "carbon tax" might have been a nonsense in economic and scientific terms but it helped win Tony Abbott an election. 

[Mav]

Oh, the irony!

After happily floating defamatory and ridiculous conspiracy theories for years (e.g Obama is a secret Muslim who wasn't born in the US and Ted Cruz's father helped Lee Harvey Oswald assassinate JFK), the Trumps have been outraged over an allegation regarding Melania Trump and are suing for defamation! 

http://www.theage.com.au/world/melania-t...r7kwf.html

Oddly enough, Melania no longer shares the stage with Trump these days ...

[LP]

you claim scientific studies are showing that the threat of Zika has been greatly exaggerated

No I didn't, I claimed the scientific study which has been used by the media to drum up hysteria was designed to deliberately select the worst case variables.

In particular, you say the CDC has slashed away at the number of confirmed cases and that suggests they are a credible institution in your eyes.  But the CDC is a very strong proponent of urgent funding of the fight against The Zika Virus.  Maybe it's a Jeckyl and Hyde thing.

Only in your mind!

Seems to me you're fighting a rearguard action since your argument that there was no link between Zika and microcephaly bit the dust.

I've never said there is no link, you've deliberately misquoted me to try and support your case. It's a pity you try to distort old long forgotten discussions to stoke your ego!

---

The earlier results hinted that the 2nd trimester was the critical period, infection before or after has as yet not been related to microcephaly. This has lead some to speculate that the problem isn't the presence of Zika in the placenta but possibly a reaction from the mothers own immune system that is the root cause. I don't know the reason behind why they think that is the case.

---

This finding is unchanged to date.

But if you want an argument over the science, best you start another thread.  This one is about the Presidential Election.  It doesn't matter what the true position regarding Zika is.  The question is how voters will react.  Railing against the "carbon tax" might have been a nonsense in economic and scientific terms but it helped win Tony Abbott an election.

You are the one who keeps bringing up Zika and Microcephaly, in a hysterical manner, in a political thread. The hysteria is being drummed up by selective media reporting, my concern regarding scientific institutions is as I have said surrounding unscrupulous lawyers and administrators who know how to manipulate the media and public to ensure they receive funding. As it seems from your support of Zika as a political tool my concerns are truly well founded.

Shame Mav, shame!

[Mav]

Amazing ...

[Mav]

Letter from the Directors of the CDC and NIH:

The Zika virus presents an unprecedented threat to the people of our nation, especially pregnant women. Thus far, t there have been more than 16,800 cases of Zika infection reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States and its territories, including more than 2,700 on the mainland. (That figure includes more than 100 in New Jersey.)

Laboratory tests have confirmed that 1,595 pregnant women have been infected with the virus, and tragically, 17 babies have been born in the United States with birth defects related to Zika.

...

The potential cost of a funding shortfall will be measured in human misery and even death. Every child born with microcephaly as a result of the Zika infection of the mother during pregnancy could require care that costs the family and our health-care system anywhere between $1 million and $10 million over the lifetime of the child. Every child born with microcephaly faces a difficult future, filled with intensive therapy and support. It is a price that no child — no mother, no father, no family — should have to pay, especially given that it can be avoided.

http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2016...opini.html

[Lods]

Why is this election race even a contest still? ???