Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

[Mav]

Personal or political gain?  As I noted above, you could say Turnbull changed his positions for political gain and any politician would have done the same many times over. 

[Lods]

How could that happen to a conservative politician?

Probably because he's not a conservative.
He's a populist flip flop who's detested by a large number of conservatives.

The Republican party now has to make a judgement.
They're heading for oblivion whichever way it goes but do they take a risk and try and block him...with all the associated drama and chaos that will entail.
A continued falling in the polls may make that move more likely.
It may be too late already which is why so  many prominent Republicans are ensuring there is plenty of distance between them and Trump.

[Mav]

Trump is now watering down his rhetoric.  He now doesn't intend to ban Muslims 'until we can figure out what's going on'.  Instead, he will ban the entry of citizens from countries with known links to terrorism until they are fully vetted.  He hasn't indicated which countries he means.

The polls aren't quite as negative for Trump as the national figures suggest.  Apparently, the figures in swing states are much closer.

[Thryleon]

Polls are about as useful as tits on a bull.

Recent polls indicated that Britain wouldnt exit.

Referendum result:  BRexit.

[Mav]

Apparently, history suggests polls are more reliable within 100 days of the election.  It's about 130 days away atm.

I assume the fact that the above threshold coincides with the completion of the GOP and Democratic Conventions isn't a mere coincidence.  By then, VP picks and policy platforms have been announced and the rest of the campaign is about persuasion.

[LP]

So as each days passes Trump back-flips on more and more of his radical proposals. By the time election day comes around he'll be a born again moderate!

[Mav]

I'm not sure whether the ditching of the Muslim ban is a flip-flop rather than a decision to go for dog-whistling rather than full-on racism.

Let's face it, Trump's 'new' position may well end up being a lot like the old one.  No doubt the countries that will be targetted are Muslim countries.  And wouldn't it be a shock if a citizen of such a country could pass the vetting process by proving he or she isn't Muslim.  Presumably, Christians will be given the red carpet treatment.  Concessions may have to be made for Pakistan and Saudi Arabia because of their strategic importance to the US. 

Of course, that would pretty much put an end to any Syrian refugees entering the country unless they're Christians. 

If this system is extended to those who naturalised in other countries but were born in or are able to obtain passports in those Muslim countries, then it mops up a lot of French and Belgian Muslims.

Trump is just doing what the GOP has always done: trying to obscure his aim by saying it is something else.  The novel aspect of what he's doing is that he preceded the dogwhistle with blatant bigotry.  Previously, GOP politicians would have refused to admit their true motivation even if facing a firing squad. 

This novel aspect raises 2 questions:
1.  Will moderates be sucked in by the ditching of the explicit reference to Muslims?
2.  Will his bigoted supporters feel he has sold them out or will they accept that he has only changed his language to suck in stupid moderates but he remains every bit as bigoted as them?

[cookie2]

So as each days passes Trump back-flips on more and more of his radical proposals. By the time election day comes around he'll be a born again moderate!

Typical of populist politicians - promise the world and deliver an atlas. Same thing happening now with the  Brexiteers backing away from their funding promises for the NHS.

[LP]

Typical of populist politicians - promise the world and deliver an atlas. Same thing happening now with the  Brexiteers backing away from their funding promises for the NHS.

Or clever.

He has already won the Nutter vote, now he just needs to convince a few moderates that he's marginally normal and he is in.

Although I still prefer the theory that he is sabotaging his own campaign because he doesn't really want to win, he wants power and money without responsibility.

Hard to judge what he is up to because he swings like a weather-vane.

[cookie2]

Or clever.

He has already won the Nutter vote, now he just needs to convince a few moderates that he's marginally normal and he is in.

Although I still prefer the theory that he is sabotaging his own campaign because he doesn't really want to win, he wants power and money without responsibility.

Hard to judge what he is up to because he swings like a weather-vane.

Some people call them liars.