CV and mad panic behaviour

[Lods]

I'm thinking when it comes to this particular pandemic nobody can be considered an expert.
It moves and changes in mysterious ways and what is expert advice today may not be as expert 6-12 months down the track.

What I do feel is there are some really poor attempts at blame shifting at both the federal and state level by political parties of both persuasions.
I find that really unproductive.
Covering up your own failings by pointing to mistakes or problems at another level of government is pretty transparent.

And it's not only the blame game at governmental level that's distasteful.
There's a nasty side to it to for some (a few) folks.
'Sucked in Victoria' or 'Sucked in NSW'  appears to be the sentiment when  there is a need for a lockdown.
It's almost like they're barracking for a worse result for the other states.
There's obviously an element of "Well, they weren't real sympathetic to our plight when we were struggling", but I suspect that was a perception rather than a reality."
The fact is that most decent people feel for those struggling in lockdown and it's more a case of 'Thank heavens it's not us this time, but it could very well be next time.'

The strange thing about it is... that all Australian states, no matter what party is in power have handled it much better than the majority of countries.
Different states have had different approaches, they've mostly learned from any mistakes and have managed to reel in numbers that in many places continued to spiral out of control.
We've done really well actually, considering it's a situation unlike any we've experienced in our lifetimes and although such a pandemic has been talked about in the past as a possibility amongst the common folk, it's really been the stuff of movies.

[capcom]

Just don't excuse that dumb idiot female in Qld.  She's hated for bloody good reason.  Rant over but waiting to be reignited.  Just a quarter moon in a tent cent town.

[Mav]

So give them ivermectin. FMD, a lot of gullible folk here.

As for Mav's anti lockdowners having a hard time.

I've got two young kids, shame on you, you pompous ......

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health...a0391b0653

You aren’t the only one with kids you contumelious c*#@.

And I don’t have any desire to see mine with long term physical or mental effects following Covid.

Save your snake oil for your own kids.

[ElwoodBlues1]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-02/d.../100255804

Further to Fly's post with his link to the medical expert in the USA, you can form your own opinion on the contents of that interview but this ABC news link above does seem to support at least one aspect of that interview in suggesting that while the Delta variant spreads quicker the first data in a study from the UK is showing the mortality rate lower only 0.3 and the symptoms less severe and more in line with a bad cold. Early days as the article suggest and I'm no medical expert but if that trend continues you would have to question our approach in terms of vaccines/lockdowns and if indeed the virus is starting to mutate itself to a safer livable level. Just read that half the recent deaths in England of Covid19 were people who had been vaccinated. Its confusing with conflicting data/opinions to make informed decisions...

[PaulP]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-02/d.../100255804

Further to Fly's post with his link to the medical expert in the USA, you can form your own opinion on the contents of that interview but this ABC news link above does seem to support at least one aspect of that interview in suggesting that while the Delta variant spreads quicker the first data in a study from the UK is showing the mortality rate lower only 0.3 and the symptoms less severe and more in line with a bad cold. Early days as the article suggest and I'm no medical expert but if that trend continues you would have to question our approach in terms of vaccines/lockdowns and if indeed the virus is starting to mutate itself to a safer livable level. Just read that half the recent deaths in England of Covid19 were people who had been vaccinated. Its confusing with conflicting data/opinions to make informed decisions...

It's precisely for these reasons, i.e we still don't know exactly what covid is or what we're dealing with, or how it will pan out, that it's better to be safe than sorry. Being overly cautious is the right approach IMO.

[LP]

Just read that half the recent deaths in England of Covid19 were people who had been vaccinated.

Last night the UK Health minister announced no deaths of any vaccinated individuals in the last 40 or so COVID-19 deaths.

[LP]

Delta variant spreads quicker the first data in a study from the UK is showing the mortality rate lower only 0.3 and the symptoms less severe and more in line with a bad cold.

That's not really true, the Delta R[sub]0[/sub] is close to 7.0, while the normal COVID-19 R[sub]0[/sub] is 2.5, these are the base of an exponent n that represents infection cycles, so you know the even if the lethality of Delta is 100x less it would be still equal or more deadly because of the huge number of more people it infects!

R[sub]0[/sub][sup]n[/sup] if n = 2, then 2.5[sup]2[/sup] = 6.25, the infection grows over six cycles 2.5[sup]6[/sup] approximately as 2.5, 6, 15, 39, 97, 244

R[sub]0[/sub][sup]n[/sup] if n = 2, then 7[sup]2[/sup] = 49, the infection grows over six cycles 7.0[sup]6[/sup] approximately as 7, 49, 343, 2401, 16807, 117649

The report you reference is really a sly and cynical use of math, sly because reporting a death rate in the absence of a scale is deceptive, cynical because it assumes the listener has no concept of math, exponents and exponential growth, so by reporting small numbers they hope to persuade people for political purposes.

[flyboy77]

Some of us don't have the time to investigate every garbologist, greengrocer, taxi driver, cardiologist etc., who think they know better than the experts in their field. And very few of us possess your obvious talents for data analysis.

If that makes me an ad hominem attacker, I can live with that.

We're just trying to follow the rules, the expert advice, and do the right thing, to protect ourselves, and protect others. If you believe it's all a hysterical overreaction, that is a matter for you.

https://www.a4m.com/peter-a-mccullough.html

Oh, a Masters in Public Health.

Which experts are you listening to Paul?

Have you checked their qualifications given.....?

Some of us don't have time....

Very funny.

Any chance you have a PAYG job Paul, LP?

[LP]

All the crazy theories, published political opinions and nutter anti-vaxx conspiracies are undone by the most basic math, no matter what the claim it has to be supported by the available data or else it's simply wrong.

[flyboy77]

That's not really true, the Delta R[sub]0[/sub] is close to 7.0, while the normal COVID-19 R[sub]0[/sub] is 2.5, these are the base of an exponent n that represents infection cycles, so you know the even if the lethality of Delta is 100x less it would be still equal or more deadly because of the huge number of more people it infects!

R[sub]0[/sub][sup]n[/sup] if n = 2, then 2.5[sup]2[/sup] = 6.25, the infection grows over six cycles 2.5[sup]6[/sup] approximately as 2.5, 6, 15, 39, 97, 244

R[sub]0[/sub][sup]n[/sup] if n = 2, then 7[sup]2[/sup] = 49, the infection grows over six cycles 7.0[sup]6[/sup] approximately as 7, 49, 343, 2401, 16807, 117649

The report you reference is really a sly and cynical use of math, sly because reporting a death rate in the absence of a scale is deceptive, cynical because it assumes the listener has no concept of math, exponents and exponential growth, so by reporting small numbers they hope to persuade people for political purposes.

And what is your source for stating an R0 of 7.0?

The rate of reproduction has nothing to do with death numbers LP.

And the proof is in the pudding - you know, actual deaths.

That is where your fear mongering fails entirely.

I've put up the NHS' paper previously, and if you need a hand understanding the data, just ask.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk...ing_17.pdf

Briefing Paper 16 also very good.