CV and mad panic behaviour

[LP]

What the article fails to mention - or discuss - is that, irrespective of the rate of reproduction (which events both in the UK and here would throw in doubt as to how infectious is actually is), the rates of hospitalisations and deaths are negligible.

That is perhaps a confusion of the consequences and benefits of vaccination with the fundamental characteristics of the virus.

Regarding virulence:
The R[sub]0[/sub] is a growth factor, Influenza's R[sub]0[/sub] is suggested to be 1.3, normal COVID-19 is about R[sub]0[/sub] of 2.5, the COVID Delta variant R[sub]0[/sub] is initially showing as 7.0. This is massively different because the reproduction number describes exponential growth.

Influenza R[sub]0[/sub] = 1.3, after 4 generations the infection count is just 2.8

COVID-19 R[sub]0[/sub] = 2.0, after 4 generations the infection count is 16

COVID-19 Delta R[sub]0[/sub] of 7.0, after 4 generations the infection count is 2401

Even if the COVID Delta variant is 100x less lethal than Influenza it works out just as deadly, unfortunately in the real world COVID-19 Delta it is more deadly/lethal than Influenza.

Also, with a higher the R[sub]0[/sub] a much higher percentage of community resistance must be achieved to reach herd immunity, an R[sub]0[/sub] of 2.0 requires about 60% resistance, an R[sub]0[/sub] of 7.0 requires about 90% resistance.

The basic math is why the authorities are crapting themselves about the COVID-19 Delta variant.

[PaulP]

There's not a single thing I've read from any reputable immunologist, epidemiologist, specialist etc. that states the seasonal flu is a bigger issue than covid, or that covid (in whatever variant) is hyped up to be something bigger than it is. Not one. The dangers of covid may not necessarily be that it is "inherently" more dangerous than the flu. It may simply be a bigger problem because we don't have herd immunity, have not built up some kind of antibody resistance, and because of the unavailability (until recently) of any treatment or vaccine. Nevertheless, in the present, it is a way bigger issue than the flu.

[Mav]

Covid-19’s Delta variant means it’s ‘absolutely essential’ to protect children from infection, experts say, ABC.

Seems long-Covid is a major concern. Now, if Covid is just like flu, why haven’t we ever heard about long-flu?

[Baggers]

Oh, and 48 hours after my final jab, no issues or adverse side effects.

Wrapped to hear that, Pauly.

I had the first AZ recently (at last finished selling PI home and moving), and experienced over the next 24/36 hrs mild flu like symptoms - very mild headache for a few hours, touch of fatigue, bit itchy for a hour or so, injection site mild tenderness/pain and a little toss and turn first night's sleep. No fevers, chills, sweats. Thank the gods, no loss of appetite!!

I found it interesting that everyone else at the clinic, besides me, was actually quite young - under 50s and a few in their 30s.

[Baggers]

Covid-19’s Delta variant means it’s ‘absolutely essential’ to protect children from infection, experts say, ABC.

Seems long-Covid is a major concern. Now, if Covid is just like flu, why haven’t we ever heard about long-flu?

Fancy bringing logic and common sense to the argument!! What are you smoking, Wingman MAV?     

[Thryleon]

I got my second pfizer jab as expected earlier today.

Ill keep you posted if anything occurs.

From Pauls link:

But the vaccines do much more to prevent death than transmission of the virus, so cases of Covid are expected to rise for some time yet. The larger the epidemic grows, the more chance the virus has of finding vulnerable people who have not had their shots, or are not sufficiently protected by the vaccine. While the vaccines dramatically weaken the link between cases and deaths, they are unlikely to break it entirely.

My skepticism is more about what happens with or without vaccine and how we really determine the true impact of it.

[PaulP]

Wrapped to hear that, Pauly.

I had the first AZ recently (at last finished selling PI home and moving), and experienced over the next 24/36 hrs mild flu like symptoms - very mild headache for a few hours, touch of fatigue, bit itchy for a hour or so, injection site mild tenderness/pain and a little toss and turn first night's sleep. No fevers, chills, sweats. Thank the gods, no loss of appetite!!

I found it interesting that everyone else at the clinic, besides me, was actually quite young - under 50s and a few in their 30s.

Thanks matey. Good to hear your symptoms were on the mild side, and importantly, no effect on your appetite. 

I believe with the AZ, the first shot is the worst wrt symptoms, so you should be good to go with No 2.

[LP]

Interesting to hear that there is now burgeoning evidence for Delta strain that suggests the hospitalisation rate is equally spilt around Under 50s and Over 50s. It's no longer Grandma and Grandpa, now it's sons and daughters.

I suppose we can expect a shift in the blogger dominated professional media.

[Mav]

Tough week for the anti-Lockdowners. Gladys extends the NSW lockdown, saying it has been effective in reducing movement around the metro area and has helped to bring exponential spread under control.

Orwell’s Animal Farm offers a way forward when absolute positions need to be watered down. Sure, “All lockdowns are bad” might not work any more. But we can just change it to, ”NSW lockdowns good, Victorian lockdowns bad”.

[Baggers]

Tough week for the anti-Lockdowners. Gladys extends the NSW lockdown, saying it has been effective in reducing movement around the metro area and has helped to bring exponential spread under control.

Orwell’s Animal Farm offers a way forward when absolute positions need to be watered down. Sure, “All lockdowns are bad” might not work any more. But we can just change it to, ”NSW lockdowns good, Victorian lockdowns bad”.

Well said. Dare I say that had Gladys reacted as VIC did recently that the spread would have been halted sooner? Sheesh, I don't know what came over me to suggest such a thing  :  :  :-X  Dare I also suggest that had VIC handled our recent outbreak exactly as Gladys has the media, especially News Ltd., would have been rolling out Rita P and Andrew B with scathing opinion pieces. "Oh the hypocrisy," he said, shaking his his head.

When a political ego dictates decisions we get... well, look at NSW.