CV and mad panic behaviour

[PaulP]

Where there is uncertainty and where you are dealing with an unknown, I would much rather err on the side of caution and be more restrictive. I applaud those governments who have swallowed a few bitter pills and instituted measures that might seem tough, but are trying to save lives. Of course, there is a political element to this, in the sense that governments must appear to be doing something rather than nothing, but the tough love approach in this case is much better than the nonsense dished up in some countries.

The only two ways that the current data is wrong is if the broader scientific community is either corrupt or incompetent.

[LP]

The Brit Nic Lewis is onto it too.

https://www.nicholaslewis.org/why-herd-i...ht-update/

It's all about the heterogeneity of populations.

15% to 20% might even get the job done.....

This is a confusion of herd immunity with disease severity. Discussing heterogeneity of a virus is discussing the span of the disease throughout diverse communities from asymptomatic to deadly, it has nothing to do with immunity and disease transmission.

Actually it is much the same mistake Tegnell initially made, thinking that asymptomatic infections reduce the impact of the disease, but really they act as a resevoir of disease and mutagens, which is why Sweden is now a full bore vaccination state! If they don't act fast, they could be forked by the end of spring!

With vaccinations there are always risks, with health strategies there is always a cost, the extreme fanatical anti-COVID vaccination and anti-COVID lockdown approach taken by some is bizarre because their unwillingness to see both sides of the argument means they miss the reality completely. They can walk right over a partial valid supporting argument for their postilion, because they only talk want to talk in absolutes no matter how absurd the claims they make might be!

So no cigar again, with a whole barn to throws rocks at it's hard to imagine how someone can keep picking up the same stone and missing completely!

[Baggers]

Here's an interesting table - Sweden barely makes it into the top 20 in Europe yet is an "appalling failure".

When all these other countries ran with draconian lockdowns, masking, et etc - screwed economies, destroyed people's lives and livelihoods etc.

But Sweden is the failure?

You do realise Sweden has a very liberal reporting system too right - in many countries a lot of the Swedish deaths would not be attributed to CV19?

And their economy barely stuttered.

What planet are you guys smoking on?

55 Cancrie e, but smoking is not allowed on 55 Cancrie e. We developed a vaccine to thwart addiction or the need for hallucinogens.

[DJC]

Just going back to Fly's reference to the Great Barrington Declaration.  This declaration was released by a libertarian think tank and a small group of scientists, many of whom have no relevant experience and all of whom have their own particular barrows to push.

The Great Barrington Declaration and the myth of naturally acquired herd immunity is discussed in some detail in Nature:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4

Interestingly, the Nature article quotes a former POTUS's malapropism “herd mentality” and it seems that Auraqngzeb has unwittingly described the libertarian, conspiracy theorist, anti-science approach to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Great Barrington Declaration has also been exposed as "a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence" in Lancet:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lance...X/fulltext

[LP]

Just going back to Fly's reference to the Great Barrington Declaration.  This declaration was released by a libertarian think tank and a small group of scientists, many of whom have no relevant experience and all of whom have their own particular barrows to push.

@DJC Unfortunately, we like to think scientists and doctors are empathic and heavily invested in the social good, but like any sector of society you can find some portion on a spectrum who prefer self over self-sacrifice. A percentage will always prefer strategies to preserve wealth and privilege over welfare, and fundamentally that is what GBD and others argue, the death of the downtrodden is a necessary sacrifice society must make to ensure the wealthy stay free and privileged. 1%ers, like so many other 1%ers.

You cannot logically debate with them, because they see the world selfishly, their actions belie the meaning of their words.

This is why they also commonly protest masks, not because they can't see the good it does for others, but because they can't bear the inconvenience it does to themselves.

[Baggers]

@DJC Unfortunately, we like to think scientists and doctors are empathic and heavily invested in the social good, but like any sector of society you can find some portion on a spectrum who prefer self over self-sacrifice. A percentage will always prefer strategies to preserve wealth and privilege over welfare, and fundamentally that is what GBD and others argue, the death of the downtrodden is a necessary sacrifice society must make to ensure the wealthy stay free and privileged. 1%ers, like so many other 1%ers.

You cannot logically debate with them, because they see the world selfishly, their actions belie the meaning of their words.

This is why they also commonly protest masks, not because they can't see the good it does for others, but because they can't bear the inconvenience it does to themselves.

Ah, so many truths in these comments, Spotted One. I would only make one correction and one elaboration.

Instead of the word, 'selfish', I would call it for what it is - narcissism.

The elaboration is with the psychology of the 'far right' type. They're fear based and terrified of losing control and their dangerous, lame and oft pathetic attempts at fighting everything is just to regain some sense of control... which they'll never succeed at whilst they are psychologically fear-based in the brain box.

[DJC]

Wrong, wrong and wrong. And no, those statements are a direct result of internal political pressures.....on Tegnell.

Gee David, get up to speed before you launch with that sort of stuff.

Read some of Gabriela Gomes' work.

The Brit Nic Lewis is onto it too.

https://www.nicholaslewis.org/why-herd-i...ht-update/

It's all about the heterogeneity of populations.

15% to 20% might even get the job done.....

As for the claim that Sweden has been an appalling failure, again rubbish.

The only ones saying  Sweden is a failure is the MSM - the data does not reflect that at all.

And of course we couldn't acknowledge that the time tested methods, universally deployed, up to the end of 2019, are the optimum path.

Even with Ebola, lockdowns were never recommended., let alone mandated.

Why compare only to small Nordic nations? Strawman stuff.

Against the bigger Euro nations, they have done very well indeed.

I've already put up data on age adjusted excess deaths.....and if you want more on the Nordic comparison.....

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?...id=3674138

It's all out there, most just don't do their homework but still feel happy to espouse vacuous claims.

One thing about Dr Tegnell is that he doesn't let others put words in his mouth.  His admissions of underestimating herd immunity and taking Sweden down the wrong path are just that, admissions that he was wrong.

It's easy to find one or two folk with dissenting views but I prefer to rely on research published in highly regarded journals.  For example:

Given an R0 value before lockdowns in most countries of between 2·5 to 3·5, we estimate the herd immunity required is about 60–72%. If the proportional vaccine efficacy, ε, is considered, the simple expression for pc becomes [1 – 1 / R0] / ε. If we assume ε is 0·8 (80%), then the herd immunity required becomes 75–90% for the defined range of R0 values. For lower efficacies, the entire population would have to be immunised. These overall estimates ignore heterogeneities that can make these figures lower or higher in specific locations.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lance...7/fulltext

Why compare Sweden with Norway and Denmark?  I would have thought that was obvious  :

Norway, Denmark and Sweden are culturally and geographically Scandinavian, have common borders, the same socioeconomics, shared history, similar social welfare and health systems, and Norway and Sweden have the same climatic constraints.  Fortuitously, Norway and Denmark's combined population is almost equal to Sweden's.  All three countries have strong social contracts and civil obedience is the norm.  Norwegians and Swedes are used to long periods of isolation during long, harsh winters.  Sweden is a little different in that its constitution only permits the declaration of a state of emergency in war time.  In other words, it is comparing apples with apples and far more meaningful than comparing Sweden with Lithuania (204K cases and 3,363 deaths), or the other "herd mentality" countries like England (3.7M cases and 110K deaths) and the USA under Aurangzeb (29M cases and 545K deaths). Of course, Belgium (798K cases and 22.3K deaths) has a similar population to Sweden but its appalling COVID record reflects Belgian holiday destinations, an inadequate first response, an overwhelmed and compromised health system, freedom of movement across borders, and assumed causes of death, as well as a stratified society and infections spreading rapidly through ethic enclaves.

Similarly, there's no point in comparing Sweden with Australia and New Zealand with their natural advantages of ocean barriers to aid border control and, in Australia's case, State borders that can be closed as required.

[LP]

Ah, so many truths in these comments, Spotted One. I would only make one correction and one elaboration.

Instead of the word, 'selfish', I would call it for what it is - narcissism.

The elaboration is with the psychology of the 'far right' type. They're fear based and terrified of losing control and their dangerous, lame and oft pathetic attempts at fighting everything is just to regain some sense of control... which they'll never succeed at whilst they are psychologically fear-based in the brain box.

I didn't want to use the "n" word as I'll be accused of an ad-hominem n-hater attack! ;D

[DJC]

A recent epidemiological study comparing Norway and Sweden:

Norway and Sweden are kindred countries in regards to ethnicity, administrative systems, socioeconomics, and public health care systems. Furthermore, both have reliable, stringent, timely, and comprehensive registration of deaths.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/202011...demic.aspx

Interestingly, the study postulates that Sweden's COVID-19 death toll may not be as bad as it appears because the excess mortality rate has not increased.  However, Sweden's mortality rate has been declining for several years and I think it's a case of more research required.

[LP]

A recent epidemiological study comparing Norway and Sweden:

Interestingly, the study postulates that Sweden's COVID-19 death toll may not be as bad as it appears because the excess mortality rate has not increased.  However, Sweden's mortality rate has been declining for several years and I think it's a case of more research required.

You're a patient man [member=324]DJC[/member]‍ , have you ever been an educator?

Of course, there are lots of possibilities and we cannot draw a conclusion from any recent trends, it will be years before we know the full answers to many of the questions. Drawing too much of a conclusion based on recent events is as bad as claiming there is no global warming after the odd cool summer.

But one aspect of this that cannot be ignored is the statistics, 335M vaccinated and growing at about 15M per day at the moment, and the numbers are really staking up in favour of the mainstream scientists, oddly for both COVID-19 and through the COVID-19 travel restricted emissions reductions exposing the real effect of Global Warming. But as I've just mentioned, above we can confirm the latter until things resume some semblance of normality.

PS; There is a new global health initiative being launched, it's objective is to collect in a standard format verifiable COVID-19 disease and vaccination data that includes useful but anonymized data like age, medications, pre-existing illness, etc., etc., Oddly a few jurisdictions are refusing to participate, Italy, Greece and Spain being the standouts, is it a cultural or political issue that perhaps explains the dire circumstances in some of the dissenting regions? As soon as that site goes live, I will provide links.