A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.

[Lods]

Finishing 15th would be an improvement on 2018. I think you will get a mixed bag of feelings at all supporter levels, from the Carltonians all the way down. None will be terribly happy, but some will be screaming blue murder, and some will be more understanding.

That's the point though....the 'more understanding' is not 'a growing group'...it's a diminishing one.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-09-01/fa...ct-carlton

TWO WINS is a miserable season by any measure, and Carlton fans have delivered a scathing verdict on their campaign, rating it just 1.8 out of 10.

It's the lowest fan rating for any club in two seasons, on the back of the Blues' fifth wooden spoon and 55 straight games without scoring 100 points.

On the other hand.....

https://www.theroar.com.au/2018/10/26/oc...supporter/

[flyboy77]

Finishing 15th would be an improvement on 2018. I think you will get a mixed bag of feelings at all supporter levels, from the Carltonians all the way down. None will be terribly happy, but some will be screaming blue murder, and some will be more understanding.

I look through the other 17 teams, and I really can't see one game where we are a lock to win. I reckon we have a chance against the Saints and GC, and that's about it.

Yes, but you're judging against our 2018 form - there will half a new team or more in 2019. This year's form is a sad irrelevance. Fact.

If the few of the kids go bang, anything could happen.....

[PaulP]

That's the point though....the 'more understanding' is not 'a growing group'...it's a diminishing one.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-09-01/fa...-carltonOn the other hand.....

https://www.theroar.com.au/2018/10/26/oc...supporter/

Lods, I get that. Supporters can only hang on for so long.

I think we need a little perspective with numbers - Carlton has 50000? paid up members ? Plus another x thousand who aren't paid up. How many folks voted in that poll ? How many members does this site have ? We are numerically speaking, only a fraction of a much bigger group. The vote in that poll was never going to be anything different, but it would be wrong to assume that there is a majority who will demand that heads must roll if we don't get to 15th or higher. We simply don't know.

[flyboy77]

I still think midfield is our biggest problem. There may be some incremental improvement from some of the youngsters, equally some may stagnate or get injured. I was hoping we would bring in 1 or 2 mature mids to help out, but we didn't. So I think that means bottom 4 in 2019

Who says the game's over yet?

[laj]

So far i've seen that we play Richmond rd1, Essendon rd2 and Hawthorn in Laurnceston rd6.

[PaulP]

So far i've seen that we play Richmond rd1, Essendon rd2 and Hawthorn in Laurnceston rd4. Hope round 3 is nice.

I think the Hawks game is R6. We play the Pies and Ess in the JLT series, so we should hear those collective groans earlier than expected.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-31/gi...n-canberra

[kruddler]

+1.

It's like the reverse of murphy's law.

Everything has to go perfectly for us to have a dramatic improvement to our fortunes.

We will be doing well to have won about 6-8 games, and I also think thats a realistic target to aim for, and yet that still will see us in that bottom 4-6 scenario.

I say this every year, but i can never recall it perfectly but its along the same lines as you.

But, factors people fail to consider, which happens almost every year are....
1. Long term injury to important players
2. 2nd year blues - A young kid fails to live up to the breakout first season and goes backwards in year 2 - Dow?
3. A veteran player starts to decline and fails to live up to their lofty standards - Simpson?
4. A shock retirement - Rowe this year (albeit end of year) maybe Kreuzer this year?

and there are a couple of other ones which i cannot recall. Something about a couple of players not having a pre-season and playing catchup all year (ala Kennedy/Lang)

Factor all of that into your predictions and it'll be a lot more accurate.

[laj]

I think the Hawks game is R6. We play the Pies and Ess in the JLT series, so we should hear those collective groans earlier than expected.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-31/gi...n-canberra

Yes, you're right. Round 6. Fixed it now.

[Lods]

I say this every year, but i can never recall it perfectly but its along the same lines as you.

But, factors people fail to consider, which happens almost every year are....
1. Long term injury to important players
2. 2nd year blues - A young kid fails to live up to the breakout first season and goes backwards in year 2 - Dow?
3. A veteran player starts to decline and fails to live up to their lofty standards - Simpson?
4. A shock retirement - Rowe this year (albeit end of year) maybe Kreuzer this year?

and there are a couple of other ones which i cannot recall. Something about a couple of players not having a pre-season and playing catchup all year (ala Kennedy/Lang)

Factor all of that into your predictions and it'll be a lot more accurate.

Yep
But eventually we'll have a better run with those...than say last year.
A year where more goes right than goes wrong ..and watch us soar.
Depth goes a large way to covering those unexpected events and that's an area where we're probably improving.

[kruddler]

Yep
But eventually we'll have a better run with those...than say last year.
A year where more goes right than goes wrong ..and watch us soar.

Yes, but that is basically the base line.
For every year you get a good run, there is a year you get a bad run.

Regardless, our story is still a little different. OVER half our list is 23 and under. (May even be 22 and under, i cannot recall exactly.) So we simply don't have the depth, yet, to cover as many injuries as most clubs. Further to that, we are underdeveloped by comparison to others and are MORE likely to get injuries at AFL as a result......MORE than our fair share due to our list makeup.