AFL Rd 7 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast in Perth

[DJC]

Playing Young in the ruck is a big ask.  He normally spends the entire game on the ground and adding to his workload could affect his defensive work.

Young is more than capable as a ruckman and Jack did OK covering for him in defence.  Kemp is another who can cover for him in defence but I have a feeling that Kemp could spend time in the forward line.

It will be interesting to see how the magnets are arranged and how they might get moved around.

Kennedy as sub is much better than O’Brien.  Chugga can fill most roles in the event of an injury and he does have the ability to make an impact, particularly if he can exploit a tired opponent.

[LoveNavy]

Good luck to Young on his 50th and Kemp for earning a call up.

We start this game outside the 8, sliding by the hour.

If we don't win this convincingly, my optimism will be shot. We'll also find ourselves in the oh so familiar 11th position.
Last year we won by 63. That's the benchmark IMO.

Go Blues

[ElwoodBlues1]

Not to harp on about it too much, but its yet another reason why i think TDK in the side hurts more than helps. It limits the moves we can make because we have to 'hide' him.

Its one thing i like about Jack going into the ruck when Pittonet needs a rest. It makes us smaller and allows for Cripps/Kennedy to get some forward time.

It appears the club is starting to use Young as the 2nd ruck, with McKay taking it deep forward. Adding in Kemp to cover for Young down back. It doesn't really bode well Kennedy forward as we have 3 talls anchored there already.

Agree ....Jack going into the ruck is a time you can use Kennedy forward for sure, Im all for Young and Harry expanding their duties and doing a bit of ruck work...not over doing it but just every now and then when we have injuries or need a lift.
Every team needs a few allrounders that can provide cover when called upon and Young in particular is capable of more than one role and we need to be more daring and try different things.

[kruddler]

SoJ is worthless in the ruck because we lose momentum massively and during that period our opposition get a free ride gaining momentum while expending very little energy. SoJ in the ruck just builds opposition confidence, and when Pitto comes back on, the opposition are standing a foot taller and are up and running.

You win the ruck by putting your foot on the oppositions throat and never ever ever easing the pressure off, not by giving them a smoko once or twice a quarter. The last thing any team needs are opposition big blokes who are full of confidence!

This seems to be a popular opinion, but the numbers don't back that up.
Yes, our momentum might suffer compared to when Pittonet is in, but not compared to when TDK is in.

SOJ vs TDK in the ruck yields the same result.
TDK gets more hitouts, but also loses more hitouts to advantage.
Jack gets less, but concedes less.
Jack also get more clearances when the ball hits the deck.
So ultimately, TDK might get you more clearances via a hitout to advantage, but Jack gets you more clearances from himself once the ball hits the deck.

[Thryleon]

This seems to be a popular opinion, but the numbers don't back that up.
Yes, our momentum might suffer compared to when Pittonet is in, but not compared to when TDK is in.

SOJ vs TDK in the ruck yields the same result.
TDK gets more hitouts, but also loses more hitouts to advantage.
Jack gets less, but concedes less.
Jack also get more clearances when the ball hits the deck.
So ultimately, TDK might get you more clearances via a hitout to advantage, but Jack gets you more clearances from himself once the ball hits the deck.

I keep telling you that there is a statistical bias with Jack's ruck work.  It's weighted to his early work and lately he's been getting beaten quite badly.  We've been running that trick for 60 odd games now.  He once tagged fyfe out of a game but if we set him a tagging role every week opponents will start to exploit it.

These things aren't static.  What worked 2 years ago won't be the same today.  Jsos as a ruck is an experiment that's finished and even our mc can see it which is why young has started chopping out pitto lately.