AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

[ElwoodBlues1]

Young or Plowman? Might need another tall to replace OMac

Agree, think it has to be Young....McEvoy and Lewis are playing the big KP forward roles with McEvoy also sharing the rucking with Reeves. Plowman and McGovern are not big enough, Young improved after a poor start in the VFL game and has the size so for me its a horses for courses selection. McGovern is probably better suited to Gunston but as always the key is win the ball in the middle and keep it down our forward half. Hawks have some tough young hombres onball and coach Mitchell dropped Liam Shiels vs Port so I reckon Shiels might come back in as a run with player.
Newman will probably have to take Wingard so he needs to play close and not be kick chasing, the latter seems to kick important goals and is one of the Hawks classier players and doesnt need many opportunities to be effective.

[Baggers]

Is their an 'effective' clearance stat? Because Port's clearances tended to end up in the hands of their opponents! Whereas our clearances have a very real focus -- thus far -- of said clearance benefitting or ending up on the chest of a team mate - connection/retaining possession.

[WASurfer]

I think Young comes in if McDonald is out.

Cerra a certainty but not so sure on Martin. I doubt we'd drop Fisher and Owies and bring in more mid-size forwards. I think Owies and Durdin are working well together and offer plenty of ground ball pressure.

Newman was terrible in the last quarter so could make way for Plowman.

Think I read somewhere that Wingard is out for a few weeks with a hamstring.

Assuming McDonald is fit I'd say maybe just Cerra in for Fogarty and possibly Plowman for Newman. If Martin comes in, probably at the expense of Setterfield.

[rocky]

I think Young comes in if McDonald is out.

Cerra a certainty but not so sure on Martin. I doubt we'd drop Fisher and Owies and bring in more mid-size forwards. I think Owies and Durdin are working well together and offer plenty of ground ball pressure.

Newman was terrible in the last quarter so could make way for Plowman.

Think I read somewhere that Wingard is out for a few weeks with a hamstring.

Assuming McDonald is fit I'd say maybe just Cerra in for Fogarty and possibly Plowman for Newman. If Martin comes in, probably at the expense of Setterfield.

Happy with all of that and yes pretty sure Wingard is out with a hammy

[Mav]

Is McEvoy much of a threat as a forward? Until I see proof to the contrary, I'm assuming the Hawks need to find a spot for him as he's the Captain, much as North was lumbered with 3 ruckmen in their opening match because they didn't want to dump Goldstein. McEvoy may well take a few marks and kick a couple of goals, but his opponent can do a lot of damage going the other way. In fact, I would think the Gov would be a great matchup for him for precisely that reason.

[cookie2]

Is their an 'effective' clearance stat? Because Port's clearances tended to end up in the hands of their opponents! Whereas our clearances have a very real focus -- thus far -- of said clearance benefitting or ending up on the chest of a team mate - connection/retaining possession.

I’ve often wondered what constitutes a ‘clearance’ and is awarded a clearance stat as a result.

[Mav]

A lot of stats aren't what you'd think they are. For instance, contested marks include marks taken on the chest after your opponent has fallen to the ground or been blocked from following you. And they include those examples where the contest for the mark is a few metres ahead of you and the players in it knock themselves out of the contest only for the ball to lob onto your chest when you're by yourself.

And tackling stats are a bit weird. You can see player X apply heaps of heavy tackles on the other side, hurrying players into poor disposals. Then you look at the stats and there's a 0 or 1 against player X's tally of tackles. It makes it easy for player X's critics to say he applied no defensive pressure when your eyes tell you the opposite.

[LP]

A lot of stats aren't what you'd think they are.

Yes, it's folly to look at the stats alone.

For example, the AFL might demand a tackle is really "an effective tackle", and that requires trapping the opponent with the ball. So if the ball drops free or if the opponent disposes of the ball incorrectly it might not be a tackle stat even though the tackle caused it!

[crashlander]

I heard David King musing on SEN about stats. He thought if someone designed stat-keeping from the ground up now they wouldn't bother with meaningless disposal stats. He noted that in soccer, they don't keep records of how many kicks players had. He thought the stats that are worth keeping have more to do with contested possessions and those that indicate influence on the game such as score involvements. He said Ollie Wines can be an influential player but wasn't against the Hawks despite stats suggesting otherwise. I guess clearance stats also can be misleading if the statisticians award a clearance to a player who clears the ball with a clanger or unproductive disposal.

No stat is meaningless if it tells you something. Possessions aren't everything, but they tell you who has the ball a lot. That can be very important.

[Gointocarlton]

I think Young comes in if McDonald is out.

Cerra a certainty but not so sure on Martin. I doubt we'd drop Fisher and Owies and bring in more mid-size forwards. I think Owies and Durdin are working well together and offer plenty of ground ball pressure.

Newman was terrible in the last quarter so could make way for Plowman.

Think I read somewhere that Wingard is out for a few weeks with a hamstring.

Assuming McDonald is fit I'd say maybe just Cerra in for Fogarty and possibly Plowman for Newman. If Martin comes in, probably at the expense of Setterfield.

Plowman on a dangerous fwd is coaching suicide. He has does silly stuff 1 on 1, oppo know it a play through his man.