Pre-Game Prattle: AFL Rd 10: Carlton vs St Kilda at Marvel

[kruddler]

We won't know for a couple of years how good Stocker is (assuming he can stay on the park), but for the sake of the discussion, what numbers would constitute a win, assuming we stay within some kind of spectrum of reality ?

e.g we finish 16th, Crows finish 8th. They get pick 3, we get Stocks plus pick 11. Win or loss ?

IMO its almost certainly a win already given how we managed to get a 1st round pick from thin air to begin with.

Reality is, we won't know if its a win or a loss for a decade.

What happens if Crows got pick 1, and we got pick 18? win or loss?
What if the above, but Stocker wins a brownlow in 5 years? Win or loss?
What if we delist stocker in 2 years, but pick 18 becomes better than pick 1? Win or loss?

There is no simple answer.

[capcom]

The Stocker trade could fall either way.  I think it'll work out well.  One of the few recruiting decisions Silvagni has made that I'll support.

Patience and payout can be wildly different.

 

[PaulP]

IMO its almost certainly a win already given how we managed to get a 1st round pick from thin air to begin with.

Reality is, we won't know if its a win or a loss for a decade.

What happens if Crows got pick 1, and we got pick 18? win or loss?
What if the above, but Stocker wins a brownlow in 5 years? Win or loss?
What if we delist stocker in 2 years, but pick 18 becomes better than pick 1? Win or loss?

There is no simple answer.

I appreciate that. And I'm one of the few who doesn't care whether the Crows get pick 1 or 18. All I care is that Stocks has a good long career with us, and the same applies for whoever we pick up. That's already a big win, especially for a club that has pick 1's and first rounders coming out of its ears.

[Lods]

Thirdly, If the club did have poor expectations going into this season, would it be in its best interests to make that public?
If it did, would we have record membership numbers? Probably not.
New sponsorship deals worth mega bucks? Probably not.
Would merchandise sales be down as a result? Yes
Would players be given an excuse for failing? Yes, and thats not ok.
Would attendances be as high? Definitely not.
Would there be increased media scrutiny on us if that was our expectation? Absolutely.

So again....is it in the clubs best interests to make this public? Hell no. Yes, some supporters, like yourself, would appreciate the honesty, but overall, its a very bad strategy.

Finally, is it possible that the club did NOT expect to be this bad? Yes.
Could that because of injuries (Doc etc) yes.
Could that be because of a lack of development in some players? Yes.
Could it be because the coaching group is failing? Yes thats true too.

My mind is open to so many permutations about where we are, where we should be and why we are where we are and where we will be in the future and how all this has happened thus far and who is on first and what is on 2nd.

I'm more than comfortable with all of that and don't disagree with any of it....
But what I'm seeing in some arguments is a greater emphasis and trust to different aspects.
It's natural to choose aspects that support your point of view.
If you're a fan of Bolton it won't be the coaches' fault it's injuries or the players.
If you're not it's all the fault of the coach.
It's occurring on both sides of the discussion.

Let me give an example

SOS says Liam Stocker was really worth pick 6....that sounds brilliant drafting strategy.... we believe the club.
Chris Judd says ….we never expected to be 1 and 8....That's just spin because the club wouldn't have said from the start we expect to be 1 and 8....we don't believe the club.

It's selective choosing to fit a point of view.
It's the same for some arguing in reverse...ignore the good and concentrate on the negatives.

As Capcom says it could fall either way...I suspect Stocker will be a very good player but if we do finish last and Pick 1 turns out to be a superstar he'll always be the one we gave away.
We'll have to wait and see.
It'll change no doubt but right now, as I write, we've given up Pick 1 for a 12 and 19.

(and that's an example of how you spin things to suit an argument)

[laj]

Extrapolation Lods. Use the grey matter.

Has jimbo hacked your account?

Ssssssshhh!!!

[kruddler]

I'm more than comfortable with all of that and don't disagree with any of it....
But what I'm seeing in some arguments is a greater emphasis and trust to different aspects.
It's natural to choose aspects that support your point of view.
If you're a fan of Bolton it won't be the coaches' fault it's injuries or the players.
If you're not it's all the fault of the coach.
It's occurring on both sides of the discussion.

Let me give an example

SOS says Liam Stocker was really worth pick 6....that sounds brilliant drafting strategy.... we believe the club.
Chris Judd says ….we never expected to be 1 and 8....That's just spin because the club wouldn't have said from the start we expect to be 1 and 8....we don't believe the club.

It's selective choosing to fit a point of view.
It's the same for some arguing in reverse...ignore the good and concentrate on the negatives.

As Capcom says it could fall either way...I suspect Stocker will be a very good player but if we do finish last and Pick 1 turns out to be a superstar he'll always be the one we gave away.
We'll have to wait and see.
It'll change no doubt but right now, as I write, we've given up Pick 1 for a 12 and 19.

(and that's an example of how you spin things to suit an argument)

The bold bit seems to be the crux of your argument re spin.

There is a logical reason which involves no spin, no lies and no misinformation for that whole scenario to work.

Chris Judd says...we never expected to be 1-8.

No, we probably didn't expect to be 1-8......but we've had some serious setbacks with Docherty being the obvious one, a couple of close losses that could've gone the other way and with a bit of luck we've easily got 4 wins, even with losing Doc.

That's just spin because the club wouldn't have said from the start we expect to be 1 and 8

No its not spin. Expectations had to be reevaluated. We didn't EXPECT to be 1 and 8, but for reasons mentioned above, we are.

we don't believe the club

You said yourself, you believe what you want to believe.

[Lods]

Here is my initial post Kruds, that some seem to have taken issue with...

I think a bit of concern comes from the fact that while you thought we would be bottom 2 Paul, the messages from the club indicate that they certainly didn't (Bolton, Judd comments, trading of the pick last year for Stocker. He may turn out to be a very good player but probably not Pick 1 or 2).

If a poster on a forum is closer to the mark than the football department, that kind of indicates that we're not totally on top of the situation or at the very least we've slipped off the expected pace.

That's basically what you're suggesting ...unexpected influences (reasons)=slipping off the expected pace.
We are not where we thought we'd be.
Judd gave voice to that.
That's what I believe.


I'm sure there are some who would believe the former...we are no longer in control of the situation.

[Jack Burton]

You can't control everything, injuries/illness, dodgy umpiring, even dodgier MRO decisions, but we need to start controlling what we can control, and that is effort. It actually should be one of the easiest variables to control. You either give it 100% or you play NB's. I'm going to the game today, and I want to see 100% effort from all players for the entire game, if not then I'm not going to be happy

[Thryleon]

At the start of the season, I mentioned that I thought we were being sold false hope and that I was being negative.

Blind freddy could see we weren't going to start in red hot form, and lo and behold it happened.

I thought irrespective we'd be in that 16th-12th band of ladder finishes.  Had we won against gold coast like we should have it would likely be the case.

Still there's a bit of water to flow under the bridge yet and I'm expecting a better second half of the year than first.

[flyboy77]

At the start of the season, I mentioned that I thought we were being sold false hope and that I was being negative.

Blind freddy could see we weren't going to start in red hot form, and lo and behold it happened.

I thought irrespective we'd be in that 16th-12th band of ladder finishes.  Had we won against gold coast like we should have it would likely be the case.

Still there's a bit of water to flow under the bridge yet and I'm expecting a better second half of the year than first.

On the glass almost half full side, we almost took the Tigers after a terrible first quarter and we should have neaten the Pies but for the influence of 4 men in yellow....

Whilst I'm far from certain about Bolton's merits as a senior coach, our best this year has been very good, no question.

The variance between best and worst (efforts) remains our problem.

Part of that is that we have many young guys,part of that is poor selection and poor role choices (eg Curnow up forward, LOB getting games).

The biggest problem is the lack of mature bodied mids top help Crippa eg the need to pick a Bolton and/or Pickett tomorrow. Not to mention the odd decision to not pick and play Kennedy earlier....people say he's slow. Yeah he was slowish last year after a lost pre season and ankle injuries but it was evident to all this year he was leaner and quicker (note he did a 3.12 for the 20m in his combine - and he'd be faster now, no question). For BB to suggest he's too much like Crippa is why he wasn't picked just beggars belief....

Dow, Fish, Walsh, Setters etc will get better but Dow and Setters need to play 2s for a stretch and find his feet by executing the basics well again.