I have been going thru the lists of all the clubs as I have been trying to get a handle on where we are in regards to the rebuild. I have broken all the players into three categories based on their year of birth: these being 97-99; 90-96; & 89 and earlier. Originally I was going to concentrate on the main list with the Rookies being an adjunct, but Geelong & Port Adelaide do not appear to have Rookies as such so I have lumped everybody in together. I have also had a look at the make up of the 97-99 group looking at how many top 30 players out of the draft as well as how many top 10. At what number you are drafted is a bit like birth weight and your Tertiary Enter Score, interesting at the time but not that relevant overall in your career. Logic tells us that the more early pick you have the most likely it is a club should have a good list into the future.
Team: Top 10 Top 30 97-99 90-96 89+
Adelaide: (0) (4) 12 23 9
Brisbane: (2) (9) 15 25 5
Carlton: (5) (10) 19 17 9
Collingwood: (1) (2) 12 25 8
Essendon: (3) (5) 13 29 6
Fremantle: (3) (4) 14 24 6
Geelong: (0) (3) 13 25 7
Gold Coast: (5) (7) 18 22 5
GWS: (3) (9) 12 26 6
Hawthorn: (0) (2) 14 21 10
Melbourne: (2) (3) 9 30 5
North Melb: (1) (4) 16 24 5
Richmond: (0) (6) 13 26 6
Port Adelaide: (0) (2) 14 26 5
St.Kilda: (2) (4) 11 30 4
Sydney: (1) (4) 14 24 8
West Coast: (2) (5) 16 22 7
West Bulldogs
0) (7) 13 26 5
What strikes me about the breakdown is how far out of kilter our list is compared to others, particular with that mid aged range group. Also in that mid range, I would think that players like O'Shea, Mullet, Graham & Shaw would be at the bottom end of our list. With our younger players, eight will move out of that group next year and seven the following, with only four or five younger aged people a year coming into the club over the next couple of years, I would expect that group to settle closer to the mean. We are also above average on older age range. Over the next three years we have three players moving into age group, Casboult, Jones & Lamb, so to get in balance of thiose three and the nine on the list, five or six would have to go.
Of the other teams, I would suggest that Essendon, Melbourne & St.Kilda are all in, so if their current plan doesn't work, they could be in trouble in the next couple of years, while Adelaide, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong & Port Adelaide don't appear to have a lot coming through.
