06-09-2017, 02:57 AM
Save that when the oil dries up or is displaced by renewables, power in the Middle East becomes irrelevant. African countries which don't have oil are fairly irrelevant geopolitically. Imagine the Middle East in 10 or 20 years when oil revenue has collapsed.
That's why Obama was trying to pivot to Asia as that's going to be the scene of the US v China battle for supremacy.
The Syrian conflagration, however, unleashed a flood of refugees on Europe and that highlighted another problem that the Middle East poses to the West. The flood of refugees will intensify as oil revenue collapses. Saudi Arabia is able to keep its citizens fairly happy as oil revenue provides an economic safety net for the people. What happens when that disappears? Will it result in internal fighting over smaller resources or will it intensify hostility towards the West?
Remember also that Russia depends on oil and gas exports too. If the market for oil collapses, economic hardship might lead to Russian aggression and expansionism.
That's why Obama was trying to pivot to Asia as that's going to be the scene of the US v China battle for supremacy.
The Syrian conflagration, however, unleashed a flood of refugees on Europe and that highlighted another problem that the Middle East poses to the West. The flood of refugees will intensify as oil revenue collapses. Saudi Arabia is able to keep its citizens fairly happy as oil revenue provides an economic safety net for the people. What happens when that disappears? Will it result in internal fighting over smaller resources or will it intensify hostility towards the West?
Remember also that Russia depends on oil and gas exports too. If the market for oil collapses, economic hardship might lead to Russian aggression and expansionism.