Goaltracker

[Thryleon]

I'm trying to understand where the 'confidence' comes from that is the basis of your argument, because the stats I am looking at tell a different story. What numbers are you looking at??

Rd10 2017 across all teams the average score for is 92.3, Rd10 2016 across all teams the average score was 92.2. So scoring rates across the comp are identical to same time last year. By the end of 2016 the average score had dropped to 89, so you could argue that scoring rates this year are actually up versus FY last year, but it's a moot point.

Your point about AE is exactly right - if you lose a player who consistently kicks 18 goals and don't replace him with another player of similar or better output, you will go backwards. We didn't recruit anyone who is looking like doing that number, but others have improved slightly [Cas / SOJ] so we stay square. But given we were 3rd last in scoring last year, my contention is that 'staying square' is a really bad outcome. And as has been shown, because the bottom teams have improved their scoring versus last year, we are actually now ranked dead last in scoring.

I don't really follow how the rotations effect this?? The objective of reducing rotations by the AFL is to reduce congestion, which may [or may not] increase scoring because the ball is 'in play' more often. The stats shown above would say that there has been no impact on actual scoring rates thus far.

My confidence comes from a few places.

1. No bombers/lions easy beats this year for teams to inflate their scoring. 

2.  On average at the end of last season (vs this season) many teams are conceding on average less points per match than last season.  Likewise,  it's fifty fifty in terms of teams scoring more on average (points scored/conceded divided by matches played).  It's still early for this.  It can change.

3.  I watch a lot of footy.  Games seem tighter, scoring isn't as quick, games are more open but generally the games are more end to end, with most of the play between the arcs and lots of turnovers entering forward fifty. 

I might have drawn some false conclusions, and some false perceptions.  However I'm confident in my opinions.  Time will tell, but I'm not overly concerned about it.  We're getting opportunities,  we are semi efficient with scoring, there is room for improvement and if our final kick entering fifty was cleaner we'd score more goals.