Goaltracker

[sydneybluesfan]

We need to be wary of how we view these things.

Statitistically we may score less or even with where we were, but is that consistent across the entire competition??

We may have improved to be where we are now relative to the rest of the competition and likewise their numbers might be different.  We dont know that answer at this stage as its a bit early to do anything but project where we will finish and each season will have its own nuances with some teams blowing out in some circumstances and not others.

What I estimate will be a factor, is that scores for and against on average will be lower in 2017 across the entire competition which means that if we are scoring at a similar rate to last season, then we have improved.


I think any attempt to look at totals ignores what the competition is doing, and any rule changes implemented can sometimes make big differences to teams ability to score such as rotation, sub rule, etc.

I'm not quite sure I totally get the logic, given the hypotheses about scoring rates going down isn't correct - scoring rates overall hasn't changed much for the top teams [it generally doesn't move more than a goal year to year], except that Adelaide are scoring 20% more than the highest team this time last year! They score 50 points more than us per game.

We were third last in scoring last year [behind Essendon and Dockers], but both those teams have improved by 5 and 3 goals per game vs last year. We are exactly the same, and are therefore last this year - so by being the same as last year we are relatively worse compared to the comp.

All historical analysis will tell you that a side needs to be scoring around 13 goals minimum per game [around 90 pts] to make the 8. That's a 'par score', and has been for some time. As mentioned the rules are all focused on increasing scoring rates. We haven't scored anything like this since 2013 [when we finished 9th]. 

The simple fact is that if you don't average over 90 pts you will lose more than you win. We have scored 70 points on average for the last 75 games and won 21 - roughly 1 in 4. This ratio and our ladder position won't change until find [recruit, trade, develop] more consistent quality goal kickers than what we have right now.

The greatest knock on our recruiters has been our total failure to find A grade KPF's or other goal kickers - we have successfully recruited 2 in 20 years [Fev and JK] and 2 mid size / small forwards [Waite & Betts] in the same period. We got rid of all 4 of them and have never looked like finding even half decent replacements for any of them!