2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

[LP]

I am a hater.
When we invest THE best draft pick on a guy that says 8 years later he has not really put the most he has into his career then yes I hate.
He performs exactly as he says, like he is just happy to be an AFL footballer.
I do not believe that is the type of player you want mentoring your elite talent.
If you believe the young guys don't hear and see that lack of 100% commitment then there is something wrong.
Gibbs and Murphy have had a huge opportunity to take the club forward but it simply hasn't happened.

I believe they both had terrible role models at Carlton and their careers have suffered accordingly.

Let's move em on at years end and start with a new group

If we extend your logic to all players on the list, then the list can only go backwards. Simply because the likelihood a replacement will be a Kane Lucas type is far greater than the likelihood a replacement will be an equivalent of the better players.

I made the Cripps / Weitering argument to expose this flaw in the logic, yet the flawed logic persists!

In reality Gibbs, Murphy and Kreuzer are above average draft picks, they have the runs on the board and in that respect are even more valuable than Cripps or Weitering because despite injuries they are proven to have sufficient longevity and durability to reach significant milestones at the AFL level. Cripps and Weitering are yet to do that!

To have a 50/50 or better chance of finding equivalent replacements for Cripps, Weitering, Gibbs, Murphy or Kreuzer you will need at least 3 picks below 10 in the draft for each player of that type you trade away. The players age is irrelevant, because it takes years to get that many 1st round picks. The AFL knows this, which is why they give GWS so many picks, you cannot avoid the math!

The logic of your argument is being applied at Hawthorn, a club that players want to move to, yet they will most likely fail! One media scribe described the Dawks strategy as "Doing their very best to beat the system!" The warning for other clubs is this, despite the Dawks being seen as a more favourable destination by players which is a purely human influence, the Dawks are unlikely to succeed! You cannot beat the math, your opinion, human opinions makes no difference! The Dawks are going down the same flawed path as a gambler playing the lottery, roulette or a poker machine! The Gambler's Fallacy!

If a club tries to shortcut the process they must eventually be overtaken by the clubs with the most low draft picks, because the club trying the shortcut runs out of players to trade for low draft picks, which is the only way to get low draft picks if you don't finish on the bottom!

In fact the Dawks best chance of success are to stay down were they are now and get the low draft picks with Norp and Freo! Which by the way would reduce our chances of success in the long term!