03-24-2017, 11:19 PM
(03-24-2017, 10:26 PM)Lods link Wrote:Here's my thinking...There's actually two components to it.
Firstly.....
Our 2017 list is an improvement on our 2016 list...(anyone think differently?).
The only way we go backwards in terms of ladder position/ games won is....
1)Teams below us improve at a greater rate (possible)
2) We get hit by a dreadful injury run (also possible)
My estimate of (9-12) of is a gamble that neither of these two things will happen.
There is also a twist on option 1, that is a 1.1 if you will.
We are not as lucky as we were last year.
We won a few games (Geelong) in which a couple of things change and the result is different. We won that game by 19 points. But they had 1 more scoring shot.
A bounce here, a gust of wind there and all of a sudden different result.
Now back to the original premise. Our 2017 list is an improvement on 2016.
Define improvement.
Walker, Jamison, Tuohy were all best 22 at the start of the year. All gone, 2 through injury essentially. 472 games experience walks out the door.
What kind of experience did we get back? Palmer?? Not in best 22 at this stage.
Long term improvement, sure, more talent added.
Immediate improvement, not so sure about that.