03-03-2017, 05:36 AM
Amers / Lp - I get all that. But here is another fun fact to consider......
If you look at the top 100 goal kickers over the league, and total up each teams total goal contribution from these players, the highest 9 teams made up the top 8 teams. The aggregate goals for those teams ranged from 297 [Adel] to WB [163]. The Bullies were a big anomaly due to their spread of goal scorers and the fact that their major goal kickers in Smith and Redpath both played less than half a year.
Carlton had the lowest number [91] this year, and last year [88]. We need to double this number to get to being mid pack in terms of goal scoring.
Of course you want a spread, as the WB have shown. But I'm just saying that by any statistical measure our current goal scoring is off the charts bad, when compared to Carlton historically or the rest of the competition. Those are the facts.
You can cut the numbers a lot of different ways depending on your point of view. Murphy has averaged over 1 goal per game once in 12 seasons, and has been consistently around 0.7, so you can pencil him in about 15 goals if he plays 20 games - that's 8 more than this year. That makes up for the lose from no Walker [9]. Gibbs contribution last year was higher than above his historical average, and the young guys will contribute 10-15 more goals than last year at best. Palmer, at his best, will just replace what we lose from Everitt. Wright had a career best year in 2016 with 22 goals, so getting much more out of him is unlikely.
We got 61 goals last year out of Lamb, Sumner, Armfield, Buckley, Jones & Tuohy - all players I would expect to see little from if SOJ, Curnow, Pickett and McKay play a lot of games. So if those 4 play and add 60 more goals than last year, but we lose 60 - then you break even basically. I agree you might get more out of Levi, and if he kicks that 30 that's an incremental 12 on last year. But all that's a long way from the extra 60 goals we need to come from our top 5-6 players.
If you look at the top 100 goal kickers over the league, and total up each teams total goal contribution from these players, the highest 9 teams made up the top 8 teams. The aggregate goals for those teams ranged from 297 [Adel] to WB [163]. The Bullies were a big anomaly due to their spread of goal scorers and the fact that their major goal kickers in Smith and Redpath both played less than half a year.
Carlton had the lowest number [91] this year, and last year [88]. We need to double this number to get to being mid pack in terms of goal scoring.
Of course you want a spread, as the WB have shown. But I'm just saying that by any statistical measure our current goal scoring is off the charts bad, when compared to Carlton historically or the rest of the competition. Those are the facts.
You can cut the numbers a lot of different ways depending on your point of view. Murphy has averaged over 1 goal per game once in 12 seasons, and has been consistently around 0.7, so you can pencil him in about 15 goals if he plays 20 games - that's 8 more than this year. That makes up for the lose from no Walker [9]. Gibbs contribution last year was higher than above his historical average, and the young guys will contribute 10-15 more goals than last year at best. Palmer, at his best, will just replace what we lose from Everitt. Wright had a career best year in 2016 with 22 goals, so getting much more out of him is unlikely.
We got 61 goals last year out of Lamb, Sumner, Armfield, Buckley, Jones & Tuohy - all players I would expect to see little from if SOJ, Curnow, Pickett and McKay play a lot of games. So if those 4 play and add 60 more goals than last year, but we lose 60 - then you break even basically. I agree you might get more out of Levi, and if he kicks that 30 that's an incremental 12 on last year. But all that's a long way from the extra 60 goals we need to come from our top 5-6 players.