03-02-2017, 02:46 AM
I am probably more with you Thry - it's a groundwork year and we will do very well if we win 7 games again given the forward-line we have.
To add to the lose of ZT I would also say that the lose of Everitt is another hole that needs to be filled. He had a lot of faults, but in our 'golden run' of beating Coll, PA and Geelong he kicked 3/3/4 goals and was instrumental in all those wins. He also kicked 3 against Freo. When the team was playing well he was able to convert the good work into goals better than any player on the list.
To understand just how poor our forward-line is I looked at some stats last night - we kicked 224 goals last year and 219 in 2015. You have to go back nearly 50 years to find a Carlton team who has kicked 220 goals in a year - even through our worst period we had a more potent forward-line!
Historic stats will also tell you that first or 2nd year players rarely achieve anything more than a goal per game - so McKay, Curnow, Jack, Pickett, Fisher etc cannot be expected to deliver match winning goal scoring performances. This really leaves Levi and Wright as our main avenues to goal this year [as they were last year], but we need them to score more goals more regularly than either of them have ever done in the past.
The other interesting thing to note about Levi and his goal scoring is he has been far from the 'match winner' you desperately want your KPF to be. He kicked 1 goals or less in 6 of our 7 wins [he kicked 3 against Coll]. Relying on him to be the main guy has proven something that he is not capable of over the last 3 years.
To add to the lose of ZT I would also say that the lose of Everitt is another hole that needs to be filled. He had a lot of faults, but in our 'golden run' of beating Coll, PA and Geelong he kicked 3/3/4 goals and was instrumental in all those wins. He also kicked 3 against Freo. When the team was playing well he was able to convert the good work into goals better than any player on the list.
To understand just how poor our forward-line is I looked at some stats last night - we kicked 224 goals last year and 219 in 2015. You have to go back nearly 50 years to find a Carlton team who has kicked 220 goals in a year - even through our worst period we had a more potent forward-line!
Historic stats will also tell you that first or 2nd year players rarely achieve anything more than a goal per game - so McKay, Curnow, Jack, Pickett, Fisher etc cannot be expected to deliver match winning goal scoring performances. This really leaves Levi and Wright as our main avenues to goal this year [as they were last year], but we need them to score more goals more regularly than either of them have ever done in the past.
The other interesting thing to note about Levi and his goal scoring is he has been far from the 'match winner' you desperately want your KPF to be. He kicked 1 goals or less in 6 of our 7 wins [he kicked 3 against Coll]. Relying on him to be the main guy has proven something that he is not capable of over the last 3 years.