The Hard Road To The Premiership

[Thryleon]

Yes Tuohy was a best 22 player, as was Walker, although wear and tear rendered him a shadow of his best.  The other players we shed, including Jammo, did nothing in 2016.  Marchbank is a more than adequate replacement for Jammo (at his best) and we know Palmer and Smedts can play.  That's one reasonable HBF and two struggling players out and one exciting KPP and two reasonable players in, making a stronger list.  Of course, if a couple of SPS, Pickett, Lebois, Fisher, Macreadie, Polson, Williamson and Kerr make the grade, we're well ahead of 2016.  Then there's the development of last year's draft crop.

Holding on to our ladder position should be achievable as the lower end of acceptable outcomes.  That's based on a considered, realistic assessment of our list changes - and Bolton's call for fans to be patient   An optimistic view would have us playing finals, and I think that the chances of that happening are very slim.

See I disagree.

I think its a realistic assesment to believe that we have gone forward at roughly the same rate we have gone backwards and that we will realistically tread water.

I do think that players that are having hindered pre seasons are an example we can point to as to why we will be inferior than the 2016 version.  Walker, Jamison are furthy's.  They played 15 games between them for 9 goals and not much gain.  We might lack a bit of their experience and leadership, but thats easily countered by youthful enthusiasm.  Tuohy on the other hand, had a solid if unspectacular year and statistically one of his best seasons.  22 games, more disposals than ever before.  Solid.

Marchbank may negate his absence.  He has the ability to, but he is a young buck early in his career, and Tuohy whilst no superstar, was a solid week in and week out performer.

Byrne is also down and out for now.  He might come good later on, but it means we have two holes being filled by one acquisition for a net loss even if thats temporary, and even if Sheehan can step up to fill the void, there are no guarantees he will get an elevation nor that he will hold up for more than a couple of weeks as his body has been letting him down.

Add Phillips going down injured to LTI, and a sprinkle of Gorringe being hindered, and then you start relying on our young draftees to improve significantly on their 2016 output, to help us tread water.  History shows draftees take about 3 years to get going to solid performing AFL players and that is usually the better draftees.  Guns like Cripps just morph into freaks and become excellent players and are very few and far between. Use Bryce Gibbs and Marc Murphy as your comparisions, and we can expect limited improvement through draftees.

Can Simpson at age 33 continue playing sterling footy forever?
Can Docherty reproduce his career best form of 2016?
Can Murphy reproduce his career best form rather than anything else?

There are enough things there to suggest that we could improve, or that we could go backwards looking at known quantities with the only likely outcome (based on current knowledge) that we will simply be roughly where we were at last year.  We might even go to a more exciting version of ourselves and win the exact same amount of games.  That in itself is improvement.

Do you understand me?  That is a more than realistic scenario IMHO. 

At the end of the day I look at it as us laying the groundwork to achieve future progress, and not necessarily improving this season.  The improvement will never be linear.  At some point it will increase more than before, but it may taper at some points too, and I see this year as being a tapering year laying the foundation for future drastic improvement.